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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 5, 2022 9:58:32 GMT -6
GFS much like the NAM. Has fgen just south of Missouri River and also the band in SEMO. Again a little less robust with a general 1 to 1.50”. I personally like the trends for those of us further south and models are really locking in that idea at this point.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2022 10:14:17 GMT -6
I hope somehow everyone gets a little something from this one. All signals point to this being our only chance for the foreseeable future.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 5, 2022 10:16:17 GMT -6
I still think someone could be surprised by that fgen band. The models are trying to come back around to it. Then it is a question of how quickly and where the second southern mode develops. There will be some nowcasting to be sure. Also, I guess I should change my username being that I've been in Perryville now for 5 years. Oh I thought you were in St. Gen haha! Perryville is further SE so you are in a better position for 2"+! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 5, 2022 10:19:07 GMT -6
15Z rap has slightly moved South.
Ugh.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 10:20:29 GMT -6
Its a now cast situation in my opinion. Just keep up on radar trends out west
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2022 10:20:40 GMT -6
I still think someone could be surprised by that fgen band. The models are trying to come back around to it. Then it is a question of how quickly and where the second southern mode develops. There will be some nowcasting to be sure. Also, I guess I should change my username being that I've been in Perryville now for 5 years. Oh I thought you were in St. Gen haha! Perryville is further SE so you are in a better position for 2"+! Well my 200 acres is in Ste. Gen and I spend enough time up there to call it my location lol. |
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Post by yypc on Jan 5, 2022 10:34:12 GMT -6
Nws just lowered stl from 0-1” to 0-T lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2022 10:35:02 GMT -6
Nice how the 700mb frontogenesis falls apart as soon as it hits MO only to restrengthen over TN/KY Its like Missouri has some anti snow shield up and running  |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 10:36:42 GMT -6
Honestly im sure all of us at this point would rather just have it not snow and wait another month for maybe a real storm lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2022 10:40:45 GMT -6
Or maybe it’s just the heat Missouri is still radiating off from that ridiculously warm December
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 5, 2022 10:54:08 GMT -6
Or maybe it’s just the heat Missouri is still radiating off from that ridiculously warm December We win a gold star for winter futility. Yay us! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 5, 2022 10:54:59 GMT -6
Oh I thought you were in St. Gen haha! Perryville is further SE so you are in a better position for 2"+! Well my 200 acres is in Ste. Gen and I spend enough time up there to call it my location lol. I see haha. I'm just glad someone who posts frequently for winter wx on here will at least see some decent snow! |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 5, 2022 11:39:44 GMT -6
So is ready to call it a season and just start on Memorial Day weekend.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 5, 2022 11:54:58 GMT -6
lol, jesus
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 5, 2022 12:06:59 GMT -6
Oh I thought you were in St. Gen haha! Perryville is further SE so you are in a better position for 2"+! Well my 200 acres is in Ste. Gen and I spend enough time up there to call it my location lol. How did you aquire 200 acres? If you don't want to answer that's fine. How much is your acreage worth? Even if they are only 5K a acre thats still 7 figures in value. That's great thing to have. Are you farming the land?? |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 5, 2022 12:23:15 GMT -6
Dirt is a great thing to own. Holds the world together.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2022 12:29:49 GMT -6
Well my 200 acres is in Ste. Gen and I spend enough time up there to call it my location lol. How did you aquire 200 acres? If you don't want to answer that's fine. How much is your acreage worth? Even if they are only 5K a acre thats still 7 figures in value. That's great thing to have. Are you farming the land?? My great grandfather rented/purchased it back in the 1930's. He only had three children. One of them (my grandma) married my grandpa (obviously), and they worked the land and bought him out. Said grandparents only had two sons, my dad and uncle. So I share ownership with my uncle and my brother. It's about 3k an acre land...rolling hills, ridgetops, hollers, year-round spring, borders a creek...typical of Ste. Gen county. About 30 acres is farmed in a corn/wheat rotation. It certainly isn't a money-making property. It is managed for wildlife. Hasn't had livestock on it since 2004. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 5, 2022 12:30:25 GMT -6
Gotta love how that drunken hillbilly ma natures takes a big steaming crap on us saturday evening with rain during the brief warm up we have between cold spells. Amazing.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2022 12:32:37 GMT -6
Well my 200 acres is in Ste. Gen and I spend enough time up there to call it my location lol. I see haha. I'm just glad someone who posts frequently for winter wx on here will at least see some decent snow! I'm not confident in that even lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2022 12:37:15 GMT -6
I won't mention here what I'd do for a piece of land like that, STG...you're very blessed even if it's shared land.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 5, 2022 12:41:34 GMT -6
Meanwhile, my sister south of Nashville got 5” of snow last time and is getting another 3” in the next 24+ hours.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 5, 2022 12:43:54 GMT -6
Just comparing the GFS Ensemble with the Canadian Ensemble from 12z today and GFS has me roughly .04" qpf and the Canadian has me at .12" I would assume this is likely the Canadian amped up and moisture I wasn't 24 hours of an event that's three times as much. Are we too close right now to use Global models for this purpose?
This is also on my phone so the fat finger issue might come into play as far as being exactly IMBY.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2022 12:46:13 GMT -6
Just comparing the GFS Ensemble with the Canadian Ensemble from 12z today and GFS has me roughly .04" qpf and the Canadian has me at .12" I would assume this is likely the Canadian amped up and moisture I wasn't 24 hours of an event that's three times as much. Are we too close right now to use Global models for this purpose? This is also on my phone so the fat finger issue might come into play as far as being exactly IMBY. Much better to utilize the short range/higher resolution mesoscale models for these Fgen band events. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2022 12:50:22 GMT -6
How did you aquire 200 acres? If you don't want to answer that's fine. How much is your acreage worth? Even if they are only 5K a acre thats still 7 figures in value. That's great thing to have. Are you farming the land?? My great grandfather rented/purchased it back in the 1930's. He only had three children. One of them (my grandma) married my grandpa (obviously), and they worked the land and bought him out. Said grandparents only had two sons, my dad and uncle. So I share ownership with my uncle and my brother. It's about 3k an acre land...rolling hills, ridgetops, hollers, year-round spring, borders a creek...typical of Ste. Gen county. About 30 acres is farmed in a corn/wheat rotation. It certainly isn't a money-making property. It is managed for wildlife. Hasn't had livestock on it since 2004. I’ve driven through St. Genevieve county quite a few times over the past year and it really is some beautiful landscape. The rolling hills in contrast with the valley carved out by this Mississippi River can be awe striking. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2022 12:56:28 GMT -6
I won't mention here what I'd do for a piece of land like that, STG...you're very blessed even if it's shared land. I am indeed blessed. I didn't fully appreciate that when I was younger, but now that I've gotten older and have a son of my own, I'm realizing more all the time how lucky I am. And thankful my grandparents never parted with it when things got tough back in the day. Also thankful they only had 2 children lol. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 5, 2022 13:00:44 GMT -6
Starting to see the lift in Kansas  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 5, 2022 13:06:54 GMT -6
I see haha. I'm just glad someone who posts frequently for winter wx on here will at least see some decent snow! I'm not confident in that even lol. Haha let me define decent for this winter's standards so far...1" of snow |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2022 13:10:00 GMT -6
I'm only making some minor adjustments... which for a few areas I guess may feel more major. I've adjusted the meso band a bit to the south... but leaving wiggle room for metro STL and leaving the areas along I-70 with 1" to spots of 2" The meso band will get 2-3... and holding with 2-4 with the re-energizing precip as the low level system gets organized closer to the Ohio River. Overall... changes are fairly minor. I fully recognized the metro could easily end up without any snow at all... just as easily as it could end up 1-2 inches. I'd rather take the hit for forecasting 1 with spots to 2 and see flurries... vs pull it out and get 2" Steady as she goes!   |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Jan 5, 2022 13:12:53 GMT -6
This winter has been really boring. Does anyone see any hope for any snow this month or we now into February before we get a storm?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 5, 2022 13:14:25 GMT -6
2 or 3 would be nice in Union..right on the line. My dog would appreciate it too.
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