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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 14:21:13 GMT -6
18z nam is definitively colder and about 50 miles south through 45.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 14:23:29 GMT -6
This map is not snow only, correct? Is this a combination of everything falling? I know something was said awhile back but we do get a lot of lurkers during this lead up time to the storm. Correct It includes sleet and snow. Thanks |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 14:31:26 GMT -6
18z HRRR was a few hours faster with bring below freezing temps around 3AM for the whole metro area, but as early as 1 to 2AM for the western burbs. Also shows pretty intense sleet/snow mix for the metro in time for the AM rush. Places already closing in on a foot north of I-70 by 12PM Wednesday with plenty of storm to go. Sheez.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 14:34:14 GMT -6
18z NAM will be another great run. Snow starting in STL just before midnight Wednesday night.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 14:35:13 GMT -6
Should really wait on the hrrrrrr play by play until tomorrow sometime I think.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 14:36:35 GMT -6
18z NAM looks more realistic with the snow totals so far at 54 hrs.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 14:37:19 GMT -6
18z NAM looks more realistic with the snow totals so far at 54 hrs. Snow hasn't even begun in our area at that point haha |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 14:40:18 GMT -6
18z NAM looks more realistic with the snow totals so far at 54 hrs. Snow hasn't even begun in our area at that point haha Where do you live? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 14:42:12 GMT -6
Snow hasn't even begun in our area at that point haha Where do you live? 15 miles east of STL. They are definitely more realistic where you are. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 31, 2022 14:42:28 GMT -6
What's going to be interesting is seeing how the cold air evolves in models. RAOBs should be getting samples of the degree AND depth of the arctic airmass in the western and northwestern provinces of Canada. Maybe some of the colder trends are an early reflection of this...
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 14:43:01 GMT -6
There is wave 4 on the NAM now!!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 14:43:37 GMT -6
18Z NAM is a dream. Almost continuous snow from Wednesday AM to Friday Lunch if it went farther as it's a direct hit with the deformation zone/disturbance over night Thursday into Friday AM. Probably 2 to 4" locally higher with the Thursday Night/Friday portion due to higher ratios closer to 14 to 16 to 1.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 14:44:33 GMT -6
Things are looking dangerous for the Ohio River valley.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2022 14:45:15 GMT -6
That GHD storm in 2011 was a completely different beast though. That was a powerhouse southern low and this is a multiple wave overrunning event. There are some similarity’s, but also some key differences. Bingo. I've been seeing a lot of assumptions being made with this storm by both knowledgeable people and everyday Joe's. It seems like some people are assuming this isn't going to be significant because we haven't had much at all this winter and it's St. Louis. Big mistake. I'm not trying to step on toes here, either. But you have to present this for what it is...a true monster...potentially on the level of 1982 which is a 1 in 50 or 1 in 75 year event. A lot of us have never seen something like that...myself included. The caveat is that the core of the snowband appears to be favoring the N counties and yes, mixing is an issue for STL as it always was forecast to be. Sleet may lower totals near the Metro...but it could also switch over quicker with thundersnow and STL could easily get 2' of snow. This is a distinct possibility and needs to be recognized. i have not come across anyone who does not believe this is a high impact. that was not my intended msg if you are referring to me as one of the everyday joes. im only responding bc the original post appears to be a response to my reference of the ghd slizzard, however i will agree with chris that the waa is almost undermodeled, but it is still a high impact storm. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 14:45:27 GMT -6
Metro is pretty much in the perfect spot of the NAM for overlapping between waves.
The 10:1 map is showing 12”+ for a large chuck of the metro
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 14:46:47 GMT -6
18Z NAM is a dream. Almost continuous snow from Wednesday AM to Friday Lunch if it went farther as it's a direct hit with the deformation zone/disturbance over night Thursday into Friday AM. Probably 2 to 4" locally higher with the Thursday Night/Friday portion due to higher ratios closer to 14 to 16 to 1. The end of that defo band would be 14 to 16 like you said. Would be pure fluff falling in teens. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 14:48:37 GMT -6
18Z NAM is a dream. Almost continuous snow from Wednesday AM to Friday Lunch if it went farther as it's a direct hit with the deformation zone/disturbance over night Thursday into Friday AM. Probably 2 to 4" locally higher with the Thursday Night/Friday portion due to higher ratios closer to 14 to 16 to 1. BLV, I edited your post to remove a word that some might find inappropriate. See your private messages for explanation. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 14:50:17 GMT -6
18Z NAM is a dream. Almost continuous snow from Wednesday AM to Friday Lunch if it went farther as it's a direct hit with the deformation zone/disturbance over night Thursday into Friday AM. Probably 2 to 4" locally higher with the Thursday Night/Friday portion due to higher ratios closer to 14 to 16 to 1. The end of that defo band would be 14 to 16 like you said. Would be pure fluff falling in teens. Still energy held back in New Mexico too. Just nuts. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 14:51:40 GMT -6
Bingo. I've been seeing a lot of assumptions being made with this storm by both knowledgeable people and everyday Joe's. It seems like some people are assuming this isn't going to be significant because we haven't had much at all this winter and it's St. Louis. Big mistake. I'm not trying to step on toes here, either. But you have to present this for what it is...a true monster...potentially on the level of 1982 which is a 1 in 50 or 1 in 75 year event. A lot of us have never seen something like that...myself included. The caveat is that the core of the snowband appears to be favoring the N counties and yes, mixing is an issue for STL as it always was forecast to be. Sleet may lower totals near the Metro...but it could also switch over quicker with thundersnow and STL could easily get 2' of snow. This is a distinct possibility and needs to be recognized. i have not come across anyone who does not believe this is a high impact. that was not my intended msg if you are referring to me as one of the everyday joes. im only responding bc the original post appears to be a response to my reference of the ghd slizzard, however i will agree with chris that the waa is almost undermodeled, but it is still a high impact storm. Correct... I was explaining that to a few people this morning. The GHD 1.0 pulled warm air back west. This system is much more about the cold pressing south. There will be a greater potential for the wedge to erode more quickly than the GHD 1.0 storm. 925mb winds ramp to more than 40 mph.... we are going to be pushing blizzard criteria off an on in the snow Thursday morning. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 14:53:10 GMT -6
18Z NAM is a dream. Almost continuous snow from Wednesday AM to Friday Lunch if it went farther as it's a direct hit with the deformation zone/disturbance over night Thursday into Friday AM. Probably 2 to 4" locally higher with the Thursday Night/Friday portion due to higher ratios closer to 14 to 16 to 1. BLV, I edited your post to remove a word that some might find inappropriate. See your private messages for explanation. Know which one. You right it's gotta be child/gen public friendly. I'll just take that as a strike/moderate penalty flag. But a relatively minor to moderate one. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 14:53:52 GMT -6
Long shot but is there anyway to go back and look at model data/soundings from the 2011 storm?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 14:54:09 GMT -6
i have not come across anyone who does not believe this is a high impact. that was not my intended msg if you are referring to me as one of the everyday joes. im only responding bc the original post appears to be a response to my reference of the ghd slizzard, however i will agree with chris that the waa is almost undermodeled, but it is still a high impact storm. Correct... I was explaining that to a few people this morning. The GHD 1.0 pulled warm air back west. This system is much more about the cold pressing south. There will be a greater potential for the wedge to erode more quickly than the GHD 1.0 storm. 925mb winds ramp to more than 40 mph.... we are going to be pushing blizzard criteria off an on in the snow Thursday morning. Chris how does the lapse rate look? For convection and possibly of thunder? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 14:54:16 GMT -6
Chris just said the B word. I may faint.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 14:55:36 GMT -6
The end of that defo band would be 14 to 16 like you said. Would be pure fluff falling in teens. Still energy held back in New Mexico too. Just nuts. I have suspected all along that the models were not resolving the remaining energy well. Many of you have said as much off and on the past few days. That certainly has the potential of adding some fluff to the day Friday and dragging this thing out even more. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 14:56:14 GMT -6
Long shot but is there anyway to go back and look at model data/soundings from the 2011 storm? Dig up the old blog and dig through it. Good chance there are posts that have them in it. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 31, 2022 14:56:28 GMT -6
Long shot but is there anyway to go back and look at model data/soundings from the 2011 storm? not all that pretty but it gets the job done. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/ |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 14:56:53 GMT -6
Still energy held back in New Mexico too. Just nuts. I have suspected all along that the models were not resolving the remaining energy well. Many of you have said as much off and on the past few days. That certainly has the potential of adding some fluff to the day Friday and dragging this thing out even more. Just adds more reason to keep that 8-12" possible for the metro with locally more north of I-70 by the time it's all said and done. No reason to deviate from that now. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 14:58:01 GMT -6
1/31 19Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 2.1" to 16.1"
25-75% = 3.4" to 12.2"
50% = 7.0"
S = 9.7"
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 14:58:58 GMT -6
Some watches being converted to warnings across northern Indiana
Wonder if LSX will pull the trigger with the afternoon package today?
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Post by REB on Jan 31, 2022 15:00:10 GMT -6
I'm excited. Wood is close to the back door. Birds are fed. Snow blower and shovels are handy. Gas for generator. Electric portable power stations are charged. Plenty of food. Now........please don't disappoint.
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