|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 16:09:12 GMT -6
From the 12z EPS... minimum is 4"... there are a couple of 5 and 6's... but everything else is way up there. From the 12 GES... minimum is 5"...there are a few 5 and 6s... but a TON of monsters in there.   |
|
|
|
Post by pbc12871 on Jan 31, 2022 16:09:54 GMT -6
Oh my..wow!
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 16:10:19 GMT -6
MODOT is really going to be challenged given this starts as rain - They will not be able to pre-treat and will already be behind once the ice / snow hits Treating will be a waste of time. The best they can hope to do is plow once it starts to come down. The treating may help get the sleet up when it's over... but I expect this stuff to turn into concrete on the roads for a couple of days. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 16:10:40 GMT -6
Interesting take...I can tell that forecaster doesn't live up here, lol
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 16:11:01 GMT -6
I’m trying to figure out how Little Rock is at 10” on that map. They don’t get any snow, some sleet, and a lot of freezing rain. But 10” of stuff?
|
|
giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
|
Post by giarC71 on Jan 31, 2022 16:15:40 GMT -6
Will a Winter Storm Warning be issued,and if so when?
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 16:17:41 GMT -6
Will a Winter Storm Warning be issued,and if so when? Tomorrow... |
|
bgff
Weather Weenie
Location: Hillsboro, MO
Posts: 43
|
Post by bgff on Jan 31, 2022 16:18:04 GMT -6
Will a Winter Storm Warning be issued,and if so when? After listening to the NWS conference call, they stated it would be tomorrow |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 16:18:11 GMT -6
I'd imagine an advisory should about cover it.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 16:18:21 GMT -6
Warning will definitely be issued either tonight or in the morning
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 16:18:23 GMT -6
Will a Winter Storm Warning be issued,and if so when? Yes. By tomorrow. Not if. Just when. |
|
|
|
Post by thechaser on Jan 31, 2022 16:19:00 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 16:19:20 GMT -6
Interesting the NWS emphasizes that it's a heavy wet snow. Shouldn't a lot of it be more powdery wednesday night and Thursday?
|
|
mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
|
Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2022 16:19:49 GMT -6
I'd imagine an advisory should about cover it. 🤣 |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 16:21:36 GMT -6
Interesting the NWS emphasizes that it's a heavy wet snow. Shouldn't a lot of it be more powdery wednesday night and Thursday? Yes. It will blow. |
|
mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
|
Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2022 16:22:24 GMT -6
Power outages are going to be a massive concern I assume.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 16:27:01 GMT -6
18z GEFS 10:1 mean  |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 31, 2022 16:31:32 GMT -6
Interesting the NWS emphasizes that it's a heavy wet snow. Shouldn't a lot of it be more powdery wednesday night and Thursday? Yes. It will blow. I agree. I just pulled up a Thurs 6z sounding from GFS for metro and the omega is centered on the DGZ, warmest temp in the column is -5C, and surface temp is 16F. I certainly wouldn't describe that as heavy wet snow. What previously falls sure, but not the later phase. And as Chris already pointed out winds just off the surface pushing 40kts. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 16:34:06 GMT -6
Power outages are going to be a massive concern I assume. Yes. Not only in the zone of glaze icing but with the wet heavy snow as well. |
|
|
|
Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 31, 2022 16:35:21 GMT -6
920,
Why is there such a difference in the two maps you just posted? I understand that the second one was an ensemble product, but where does the first one pull its number from? The second one reflects about half the forecasted snow as the first in the STL Metro.
I am sure there are others who have the same question, and I don't want people to jump to conclusions about the 20" number on the first - or the 11" number on the second.
Thanks,
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 16:35:57 GMT -6
I'm just going to assume it was a young or fairly inexperienced forecaster in charge...and leave it at that.
I'm hoping our guy Glass takes the helm tonight or tomorrow.
|
|
|
|
Post by Kathy Walker - Fredericktown on Jan 31, 2022 16:40:57 GMT -6
Just sit in on the NWS Conf Call, nothing earth shattering to report other than steady as she goes, and the forecast totals WILL change will plenty of time to still sort out the details. Snow/Sleet in the metro is 5-10, they showed a best case scenario of around 4", and worst case scenario around 10". Further north in the band from Sedalia to Pittsfield 11-17", with a best case around 9" and a worst case around 19". KFAM area, 2-5", with a best case around 1" and a worst case around 6" I assume the graphics including timing and totals would be up shortly if not already. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 16:42:32 GMT -6
I thought the same thing … Only us weather nerds would have picked up that “wet snow “ and blowing snow not going to be an issue anymore “
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 16:44:16 GMT -6
920, Why is there such a difference in the two maps you just posted? I understand that the second one was an ensemble product, but where does the first one pull its number from? The second one reflects about half the forecasted snow as the first in the STL Metro. I am sure there are others who have the same question, and I don't want people to jump to conclusions about the 20" number on the first - or the 11" number on the second. Thanks, So the one with 20” is from a single model (the GFS deterministic) and shows the positive snow depth change. That’s how much snow/sleet it thinks will fall in an area. Again, just from one model. The second map is from the GEFS (25 member GFS ensemble) that shows the averaged out 10:1 snowfall from those 25 model runs. I don’t believe the 10:1 factors in sleet either. |
|
|
|
Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 31, 2022 16:47:28 GMT -6
920, Why is there such a difference in the two maps you just posted? I understand that the second one was an ensemble product, but where does the first one pull its number from? The second one reflects about half the forecasted snow as the first in the STL Metro. I am sure there are others who have the same question, and I don't want people to jump to conclusions about the 20" number on the first - or the 11" number on the second. Thanks, So the one with 20” is from a single model (the GFS deterministic) and shows the positive snow depth change. That’s how much snow/sleet it thinks will fall in an area. Again, just from one model. The second map is from the GEFS (25 member GFS ensemble) that shows the averaged out 10:1 snowfall from those 25 model runs. I don’t believe the 10:1 factors in sleet either. Got it. Thank you very much for the explanation. |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 31, 2022 17:09:58 GMT -6
GFS seems to have expanded the heavy snow a little further south
|
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 31, 2022 17:14:48 GMT -6
As BTRN alluded to, this storm has a lot more similarities to '82 than GHD 2011. It is possible someone ends up with '82 numbers. Biggest difference I see is '82 had almost no sleet and saw a quick transition from rain to snow. If we can get they kind of transition in our area look out. Nice to see the models tending colder. This is a great sign.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 17:17:45 GMT -6
I'm just going to assume it was a young or fairly inexperienced forecaster in charge...and leave it at that. I'm hoping our guy Glass takes the helm tonight or tomorrow. Was my first thought as well. It’s hard to forecast this, yes, but 1-6” and 1-7”? Those euro ensemble numbers are bonkers. |
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 17:22:15 GMT -6
Ending Wednesday at noon. Ice maps on this NWS forecast tab only go out to 24 hours so nothing there.   |
|
|
|
Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 31, 2022 17:29:16 GMT -6
GFS seems to have expanded the heavy snow a little further south Just a bit 😂 |
|
