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Post by cozpregon on Jan 31, 2022 20:39:05 GMT -6
NAM coming in very nice
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 20:39:45 GMT -6
Well.. that is something...
The NAM is flat amazing.
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Post by thechaser on Jan 31, 2022 20:39:47 GMT -6
0z NAM looking very, very good. Shows wind gusts 30-35+ when the snow is falling Thursday.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 31, 2022 20:39:48 GMT -6
I was in Columbia MO for the original Groundhog Day blizzard, I literally left Saint Louis and went to stay with a friend in Columbia once it became obvious that Saint Louis was going to miss the snow. Snow removal there just piled it along the roadways (there were literally what felt like walls of snow along many roads) and in any open lots they could find. I remember absolutely huge snow piles that literally were still there in some form well into June. Some of the biggest were collected at the mall parking lot because of all the extra space there. Obviously Columbia is nowhere near as big as Saint Louis but they are going to have to pile it all somewhere in the city 🤷🏻♂️. Not sure how STL does it, but my friend works for the city of Cedar Falls Iowa. They clean up plowed snow starting overnight and have several large containment dump sites. The snow is left to melt and when it is gone all residual is sucked up and hauled away as hazardous waste. I know they did something similar in Boston in 2015 when they got several major Nor'easters in a row. The snow pile was still melting in July. It was so dirty it was unrecognizable as snow. www.wbur.org/news/2015/07/14/boston-giant-snow-pile-gone |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 20:41:09 GMT -6
It has lost the upper system for Friday it appears.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 20:41:10 GMT -6
NAM kuchera map  |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 20:41:23 GMT -6
Between the rain and then the dry slot, looks like I will be sweatin' bullets waiting for the second wave early Thursday morn. Still a heck of a snow down here, if that is all snow with the second wave.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 20:43:11 GMT -6
I'd be fine if it all worked out like what the NAM shows.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 20:44:09 GMT -6
NAM has a bunch of snow. Next
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 31, 2022 20:46:09 GMT -6
Beautiful 850mb low track for the final wave. Passes very close to Cape G.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 20:47:54 GMT -6
Lock that NAM in please
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 20:48:13 GMT -6
I wonder at what point as a met you have to push your chips in on higher totals for the metro, pretty much every single model and ensemble is quite a bit higher than what the locals have forecast. Chris is the highest local at 6-9” all others are 4-8” for the metro. I would think at some point you have to start raising that number a little. I know they can’t go crazy but the NAM/GFS/Euro/Ukmet and all the ensembles are substantially higher than a 4-8” prediction
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 20:49:57 GMT -6
21z Sref has 8 members above 10 at airport. Mean of 7.5”
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 20:50:01 GMT -6
My guess is wait til morning, the warning will be out, then increase the numbers a bit as they see fit.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 20:50:59 GMT -6
This is going to be painful to watch unfold. NAM has me at 1” through hour 60. Granted, it has me picking up 5-6 inches over the next 9 hours, but man…
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Post by TK on Jan 31, 2022 20:52:38 GMT -6
As BTRN alluded to, this storm has a lot more similarities to '82 than GHD 2011. It is possible someone ends up with '82 numbers. Biggest difference I see is '82 had almost no sleet and saw a quick transition from rain to snow. If we can get they kind of transition in our area look out. Nice to see the models tending colder. This is a great sign. The biggest key I remember was the bitter cold temps after...Was brutal.... |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 31, 2022 20:53:46 GMT -6
When does the NAN change over to snow. Is it earlier?
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 31, 2022 20:55:49 GMT -6
“Long time listener, first time caller.”
Glad to be here and ready to watch this unfold. Love learning from you guys.
Wave 1 down here where no one lives looks like it may run out of precip by time the cold reaches here. Notice a trend across most of the models to shut down precip from mid morning until Wednesday evening. NAM is epic for immediate metro.
What do we make of the HRW models? Have not paid much attention to them but they’re conceptually in tune but seem a bit colder.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 31, 2022 20:57:01 GMT -6
Why increase the totals when the first flakes haven't even fallen yet. Then what happens when the precipitation is contaminated with sleet or Freezing rain for an extended period of time. Why not express the same concerns and express the nature of this beast and hazards that are still question marks. Prepare for the worst but expect the best case scenarios?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 20:58:37 GMT -6
2/01 01Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 2.9" to 17.3"
25-75% = 4.0" to 11.9"
50% = 8.7"
S = 9.8"
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 20:59:10 GMT -6
Saint Clair County, IL could be looking at a 'triple' warning for freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Meaning we could hit warning criteria for all 3, with over a quarter inch of ice glaze, at least a half inch of sleet, but likely closer to 2" or so, and 6-10" of snow depending how quick we change over and if Friday comes into fruition. That's gotta be almost a once in a life time event especially for St. Louis area standards. The NAM drops like 0.5" of ice on Belleville. A inch or two of sleet. Then a foot of snow. That 0.5" of freezing rain could be disasterous. |
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Post by dmbstl on Jan 31, 2022 20:59:21 GMT -6
As BTRN alluded to, this storm has a lot more similarities to '82 than GHD 2011. It is possible someone ends up with '82 numbers. Biggest difference I see is '82 had almost no sleet and saw a quick transition from rain to snow. If we can get they kind of transition in our area look out. Nice to see the models tending colder. This is a great sign. The biggest key I remember was the bitter cold temps after...Was brutal.... I was a kid and we played outside in that stuff all week. I don't remember the brutal cold hitting until almost a week (or more) later when we were finally back in school. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 21:00:49 GMT -6
Man the 00Z NAM!!!!
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Jan 31, 2022 21:02:09 GMT -6
In town? If so, friends of ours, I help them out and clear their lot for them. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 31, 2022 21:06:23 GMT -6
In town? If so, friends of ours, I help them out and clear their lot for them. Dan and Jen are great people. I'm at St. Clair in a sport shot league. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 31, 2022 21:08:56 GMT -6
Happy for you guys. We're going to try and turn 0.5" of QPF into the whereabouts of 10 or 11" in Colorado Springs.
Going to be a terrific amount of water for the east side of our state after record low precip since August.
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Post by yypc on Jan 31, 2022 21:09:08 GMT -6
I would love to see stl in at least an 8-12” band. Iirc that was the forecast for the January 2014 storm that played out nicely
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 31, 2022 21:09:32 GMT -6
Could someone provide a link to the NAM, please.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 21:10:12 GMT -6
In the 9 hours of precip falling below freezing I came up with right at or just under .20". I don't know if that is frz rain or sleet. Really nothing on 10-1 snow map at that time. This is to 21z. Then I start to get some of the beginning of second wave around 6z (midnight Thursday). Again, this is my take on what I see with the Nam 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 21:10:13 GMT -6
Just wanted to bring this up real quick.
Earlier last week were we not just talking about seeing a storm modeled several days out and it actually coming to reality. That it never happens anymore. Lol
And I said," remember when Chris would mention a storm 1 1/2 almost 2 weeks out on air. Get real excited because he seen something possibly historic!"
Off hand I remember it being the Feb 1st 2011 Sleetmageddon!
Now look a week in a half later. Bam!!!
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