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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 21:12:53 GMT -6
This is Pivotal Nam
All the other models are on the tab. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
Member is Online
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Post by bob on Jan 31, 2022 21:12:55 GMT -6
When will next model run
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 31, 2022 21:14:40 GMT -6
GFS will be out within the next hour or so (thru Friday at least) Euro will be thru the forecast period 3 hours from now. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 21:18:25 GMT -6
I wonder at what point as a met you have to push your chips in on higher totals for the metro, pretty much every single model and ensemble is quite a bit higher than what the locals have forecast. Chris is the highest local at 6-9” all others are 4-8” for the metro. I would think at some point you have to start raising that number a little. I know they can’t go crazy but the NAM/GFS/Euro/Ukmet and all the ensembles are substantially higher than a 4-8” prediction Not until somewhere between 09Z-12Z Wednesday. Those huge snow totals depend almost solely on the WAA over running being snow. Multiple things can contaminate the snow. The models have some big QPF output along and just North of 70. While the surface is very cold. The NAM verbatim... At 12Z shows freezing/sleet become all snow. 15Z: 4" 18Z: 6 So the nam has a half of a foot along 70 in the immediate metro on the Missouri side. The soundings below are essentially St. Charles. From 12-15-18Z. I don't know how much of an effect it will have. But those soundings show thousands of feet of air right at freezing. So it's likely that will cause the snow to be very wet and partially melted. And when it falls past the warm layer the flake structure will collapse and quite likely shrink while refreezing hard into more graupel like balls. Maybe the dynamics will be able to overcome enough to prevent any substantial melting. Either way that contamination might turn the 6" output down to 2-3".  upload pictures  |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 21:24:43 GMT -6
Regional Canadien starts me with snow roughly 9pm Wednesday and drops 8" snow by 3pm Thursday.
Appears to be very little precip after I go below 32* Wed. morn. About .12" in 9 or so hours before wave 2 starts.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 21:25:48 GMT -6
RGEM is 8-12” in the metro, it holds onto the sleet longer
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mlbdm6
Weather Weenie
Posts: 7 
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Post by mlbdm6 on Jan 31, 2022 21:28:41 GMT -6
This is kinda off subject, but Chris had a video clip that explained the different layers of the Temps in the atmosphere that contribute to the different types of winter precipitation. I'm looking all over Facebook trying to find it. I would love to show it to my science classes tomorrow to help explain to them the complexity in the forecast for this week. Does anyone know what video I'm talking about and can share the link if you know where it is located?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2022 21:30:19 GMT -6
Happy for you guys. We're going to try and turn 0.5" of QPF into the whereabouts of 10 or 11" in Colorado Springs. Going to be a terrific amount of water for the east side of our state after record low precip since August. How is Telluride looking? Is that in your sphere of forecasting? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2022 21:33:15 GMT -6
I wonder at what point as a met you have to push your chips in on higher totals for the metro, pretty much every single model and ensemble is quite a bit higher than what the locals have forecast. Chris is the highest local at 6-9” all others are 4-8” for the metro. I would think at some point you have to start raising that number a little. I know they can’t go crazy but the NAM/GFS/Euro/Ukmet and all the ensembles are substantially higher than a 4-8” prediction Not until somewhere between 09Z-12Z Wednesday. Those huge snow totals depend almost solely on the WAA over running being snow. Multiple things can contaminate the snow. The models have some big QPF output along and just North of 70. While the surface is very cold. The NAM verbatim... At 12Z shows freezing/sleet become all snow. 15Z: 4" 18Z: 6 So the nam has a half of a foot along 70 in the immediate metro on the Missouri side. The soundings below are essentially St. Charles. From 12-15-18Z. I don't know how much of an effect it will have. But those soundings show thousands of feet of air right at freezing. So it's likely that will cause the snow to be very wet and partially melted. And when it falls past the warm layer the flake structure will collapse and quite likely shrink while refreezing hard into more graupel like balls. Maybe the dynamics will be able to overcome enough to prevent any substantial melting. Either way that contamination might turn the 6" output down to 2-3". upload picturesThat's exactly my concern I expressed earlier today - which would lead me to think the impact will be high but with lower numbers due to sleet contamination. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 31, 2022 21:34:32 GMT -6
Question:
Does Fox2 no longer give their own extrapolated forecast accumulation numbers in lieu of showing model output? It seems like I’ve only seen model output the last few years, not forecasted totals. Am I wrong here?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2022 21:40:49 GMT -6
This is kinda off subject, but Chris had a video clip that explained the different layers of the Temps in the atmosphere that contribute to the different types of winter precipitation. I'm looking all over Facebook trying to find it. I would love to show it to my science classes tomorrow to help explain to them the complexity in the forecast for this week. Does anyone know what video I'm talking about and can share the link if you know where it is located? hi mlbdm6, try this link. I can't get the graphics to show up at the moment, but it looks on topic. www.weather.gov/iwx/sleetvsfreezingrain |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 21:47:51 GMT -6
This is kinda off subject, but Chris had a video clip that explained the different layers of the Temps in the atmosphere that contribute to the different types of winter precipitation. I'm looking all over Facebook trying to find it. I would love to show it to my science classes tomorrow to help explain to them the complexity in the forecast for this week. Does anyone know what video I'm talking about and can share the link if you know where it is located? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 21:48:06 GMT -6
Question: Does Fox2 no longer give their own extrapolated forecast accumulation numbers in lieu of showing model output? It seems like I’ve only seen model output the last few years, not forecasted totals. Am I wrong here? I give mine all the time. I do sometime sprinkle in model output to help explain... but usually my snowfall graphics are my forecast... not that of a model. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 31, 2022 21:50:12 GMT -6
GFS is looking very icy with the first wave
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Post by mchafin on Jan 31, 2022 21:53:37 GMT -6
Question: Does Fox2 no longer give their own extrapolated forecast accumulation numbers in lieu of showing model output? It seems like I’ve only seen model output the last few years, not forecasted totals. Am I wrong here? I give mine all the time. I do sometime sprinkle in model output to help explain... but usually my snowfall graphics are my forecast... not that of a model. Sadly, I only catch the 9p+ newscasts now  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 21:56:44 GMT -6
Looks like the GFs drops 12-14” in the metro on the 10:1 charts
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 21:58:19 GMT -6
Can we PLEASE lock the 0z GFS in. WOW That was a subtle shift with the 2nd wave.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 21:58:26 GMT -6
GFS continues to just dominate run in and run out.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 21:59:22 GMT -6
Subtle shift south also means storm is over by noon Thursday.
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Post by Mr Snowplow on Jan 31, 2022 21:59:47 GMT -6
Going to be a long couple of days. To all my fellow plow operators stay safe and take care of your equipment during this storm and it will take care of you……..now let the white gold pour from the sky.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 21:59:50 GMT -6
GFS has been very consistantly shuttin' 'er down for a couple days now at least.
Abd by shuttin er down, I mean St Louis. lol
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2022 22:00:54 GMT -6
The 00z NAM is ever so slightly colder at 15z Wednesday and shows an incredible burst of heavy sleet and snow right over the metro between 6am and 10am. A deep, iothermal layer hugging the freeze line with a surface temp in the mid 20s... that will be brutally heavy snow... as evidence by the quick 2-4 inches it prints out over metro STL. If that happens... wow... 6am is game time fellas! |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 22:00:55 GMT -6
This is 10:1.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 22:01:09 GMT -6
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 31, 2022 22:01:41 GMT -6
This is 10:1. check out the Kuchera just amazing |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 22:03:48 GMT -6
Wow - I would love to see 15-18” of snow! We haven’t had anything over 12” in a very long time
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 31, 2022 22:05:45 GMT -6
GFS now even shows southern St.Clair getting double digits ….. definitely a southern shift
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 22:06:54 GMT -6
The most snow I’ve seen in Arnold from one storm is 13” from the Jan 14 “blizzard”
I think this one has a shot of topping that if we don’t get to much sleet
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Post by yypc on Jan 31, 2022 22:10:21 GMT -6
Further SE shift on the GFS is amazing. I really hope it is right.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 22:10:56 GMT -6
Ya I do worry that these high numbers are going to bust with sleet!
Does anyone remember Sleetmagedddin? Like werr we seeing these high numbers and then it busted with most of metro area seeing 4-6 inches of sleet.
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