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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 2, 2022 20:15:35 GMT -6
RaP looks awesome.
Sref
Airport mean : 6 but a cluster of 4 AT 10"
Belleville: 8 and no real duds
Farmington: 9
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 2, 2022 20:17:15 GMT -6
Watching this from Florida. I predict over performer and blizzard warning for STL metro. 0% chance of blizzard conditions. But there will be plenty of blowing snow with strong wind gusts and high ratio snow. |
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Post by REB on Feb 2, 2022 20:17:56 GMT -6
RaP looks awesome. Sref Airport mean : 6 but a cluster of 4 AT 10" Belleville: 8 and no real duds Farmington: 9 8 sounds perfect! |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 20:18:57 GMT -6
My BY just needs to measure more than 10. That’s all I need. Lol
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2022 20:20:15 GMT -6
Where you at now
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Post by MakeitRain on Feb 2, 2022 20:20:50 GMT -6
Watching this from Florida. I predict over performer and blizzard warning for STL metro. 0% chance of blizzard conditions. But there will be plenty of blowing snow with strong wind gusts and high ratio snow. 0%? Now that’s just untrue. ISO is tight. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 20:21:00 GMT -6
Mccarthb , i think 10 plus is easily attainable for storm total in st.charles county
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 20:21:03 GMT -6
O’Fallon/Dardenne - Twin Chimneys |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 2, 2022 20:21:04 GMT -6
HI RES nam is perfect. Also, short term models keeping snow in area until sunset.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 2, 2022 20:21:54 GMT -6
Watching this from Florida. I predict over performer and blizzard warning for STL metro. hellllooooo |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 2, 2022 20:24:19 GMT -6
My BY just needs to measure more than 10. That’s all I need. Lol why is that?  and what are you measuring now? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 2, 2022 20:24:27 GMT -6
3KM NAM shows tomorrow maybe more of 'pulses' rather than a continuous shield of moderate to heavy snow, but more a light snow shield where ripples of energy flare up meso banding of enhanced snow of 1 to 2" per hour but last only 1-3 hours over each location, then wane to light snow only to flare back up and repeat. Looks like 12AM to 6PM will be the biggest block of steady moderate snow, then a waning of activity, people thinking it's over only for Springfield, MO radar to flare back up and scoot this way between 10AM to 1PM, then wane again only to flare back yet again 3 to 5/6PM, though mainly southeastern half of the area, then the bonus snow arrives mainly south of 44/64 Thursday night into Friday AM, yielding a period of flurries, to light snow but of decent ratios so another 1-2" fluffy inches. Some room for that to get up to the metro, but no farther. 3KM coughs up 8-12" along and south of I-44/I-64 with a few spots over that. This is the big make up for the southeastern half of the area...
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2022 20:25:16 GMT -6
O’Fallon/Dardenne - Twin Chimneys How much you have on the ground. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 20:27:14 GMT -6
Radar looks great, nice band north of lebanon forming. Hang on yall
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Post by TK on Feb 2, 2022 20:27:25 GMT -6
Mccarthb , i think 10 plus is easily attainable for storm total in st.charles county Where are you seeing that? |
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Post by MakeitRain on Feb 2, 2022 20:27:41 GMT -6
Saint Petersburg, FL.
Still got another model run before the show. 8 hours out.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 20:28:30 GMT -6
Tk, we only need 4 to 5 inches more to break 10 inches, as we have 5ish on the ground already
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2022 20:29:25 GMT -6
3KM NAM shows tomorrow maybe more of 'pulses' rather than a continuous shield of moderate to heavy snow, but more a light snow shield where ripples of energy flare up meso banding of enhanced snow of 1 to 2" per hour but last only 1-3 hours over each location, then wane to light snow only to flare back up and repeat. Looks like 12AM to 6PM will be the biggest block of steady moderate snow, then a waning of activity, people thinking it's over only for Springfield, MO radar to flare back up and scoot this way between 10AM to 1PM, then wane again only to flare back yet again 3 to 5/6PM, though mainly southeastern half of the area, then the bonus snow arrives mainly south of 44/64 Thursday night into Friday AM, yielding a period of flurries, to light snow but of decent ratios so another 1-2" fluffy inches. Some room for that to get up to the metro, but no farther. 3KM coughs up 8-12" along and south of I-44/I-64 with a few spots over that. This is the big make up for the southeastern half of the area... Huh? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 2, 2022 20:31:31 GMT -6
I thought we were done with this lol. You know what I’m talking about.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 20:32:54 GMT -6
I'm not convinced that we won't see true blizzard conditions. Maybe not at the airport...but it's possible across S/central IL as the cold conveyor LLJ ramps up and the gradient tightens.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 2, 2022 20:32:55 GMT -6
My BY just needs to measure more than 10. That’s all I need. Lol why is that? and what are you measuring now? sound like a personal question.. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 2, 2022 20:33:03 GMT -6
My gut is telling me we are about to get hammered down here.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 2, 2022 20:34:28 GMT -6
3KM NAM shows tomorrow maybe more of 'pulses' rather than a continuous shield of moderate to heavy snow, but more a light snow shield where ripples of energy flare up meso banding of enhanced snow of 1 to 2" per hour but last only 1-3 hours over each location, then wane to light snow only to flare back up and repeat. Looks like 12AM to 6PM will be the biggest block of steady moderate snow, then a waning of activity, people thinking it's over only for Springfield, MO radar to flare back up and scoot this way between 10AM to 1PM, then wane again only to flare back yet again 3 to 5/6PM, though mainly southeastern half of the area, then the bonus snow arrives mainly south of 44/64 Thursday night into Friday AM, yielding a period of flurries, to light snow but of decent ratios so another 1-2" fluffy inches. Some room for that to get up to the metro, but no farther. 3KM coughs up 8-12" along and south of I-44/I-64 with a few spots over that. This is the big make up for the southeastern half of the area... I'm seeing a pretty big shield of non-stop moderate snow. |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 2, 2022 20:37:38 GMT -6
RaP looks awesome. Sref Airport mean : 6 but a cluster of 4 AT 10" Belleville: 8 and no real duds Farmington: 9 I’m on mobile—what’s KSAR (Sparta)? I would think in line with KFAM. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 2, 2022 20:38:27 GMT -6
My gut is telling me we are about to get hammered down here. I think this is our shot ! |
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Post by TK on Feb 2, 2022 20:38:56 GMT -6
Tk, we only need 4 to 5 inches more to break 10 inches, as we have 5ish on the ground already Oh total -ok - got it |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 2, 2022 20:39:50 GMT -6
.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022
The first round of snow has exited the area, leaving weak bands of
light snow lingering across the region. This lull in snow will
continue into the evening ahead of the second round of snow that
will bring widespread snowfall to areas along and south of the I-70
corridor. Guidance is on track for the second round of snow to move
into central Missouri around 9PM to 12AM tonight, and quickly
spread northeast along a band of elevated frontogenesis aided by
the favorable upper level jet dynamics. Confidence is high that
most of the precipitation that falls across the region with this
second round will be snow but we still cannot rule out sleet
mixing in across far southeastern Missouri and southwestern
Illinois. The previous forecast remains on track with an
additional 5-8 inches of snow possible along and south of the I-70
corridor in Missouri and Illinois.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 2, 2022 20:40:56 GMT -6
I'm not convinced that we won't see true blizzard conditions. Maybe not at the airport...but it's possible across S/central IL as the cold conveyor LLJ ramps up and the gradient tightens. I concede it may be close over there in the flat terrain. Gusts may be pushing 35mph but not sure they'll be "frequent" enough...? |
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Post by dragons7stegen on Feb 2, 2022 20:41:52 GMT -6
My gut is telling me we are about to get hammered down here. This is the most excited I’ve been waiting for snow to arrive in some time. Hope we can see it fly and snow falls like the models are suggesting. Wouldn’t mind the bonus snow into Friday some are hinting at but won’t get greedy. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 2, 2022 20:43:21 GMT -6
While cleaning the ice off the boat cover this afternoon, to help with numerous chances for snow removal tomorrow, I was surprised by the amount of snow on the cover. I was breaking up 1/4" slabs of frz rain/sleet/crust. So I measured back yard table and deck railing. Table is not real close to the house. Anyway, I measured 3/4" of crust/snow on several areas of railing and table. Maybe that will help me get to double digits by tomorrow afternoon.
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