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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 2, 2022 20:44:05 GMT -6
Man I'm right in the edge of no snow here with second part per 00z NAM. What a bummer. First wave was heavier north and now second is south. Some models did point this out a couple of times the last few days with the snow minimum. But for the most part they were showing waaaaay to much here. Always fall for that. Lol Great storm so far for most. But nothing to the Epic one I was hoping for. You were in the sweet spot for quite awhile but hopefully you will still cash in. Brtn alluded to this earlier so we will see Ya I know, I shouldn't complain. I am beyond happy that all of us finally had something to track. And it sure was beautiful on the models. But like Chris always says. More likely then not, that those kind of numbers are almost always waaaaay over done. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 2, 2022 20:45:14 GMT -6
My gut is telling me we are about to get hammered down here. This is the most excited I’ve been waiting for snow to arrive in some time. Hope we can see it fly and snow falls like the models are suggesting. Wouldn’t mind the bonus snow into Friday some are hinting at but won’t get greedy. Enjoy my friends! ❄🤗 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 20:51:25 GMT -6
I'm not convinced that we won't see true blizzard conditions. Maybe not at the airport...but it's possible across S/central IL as the cold conveyor LLJ ramps up and the gradient tightens. I concede it may be close over there in the flat terrain. Gusts may be pushing 35mph but not sure they'll be "frequent" enough...? As always...time will tell! |
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Post by MakeitRain on Feb 2, 2022 20:51:40 GMT -6
What are the ratios?
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Post by dschreib on Feb 2, 2022 20:52:30 GMT -6
Who’s going to get under that death band riding just N of 44?
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 20:53:15 GMT -6
I would not rule out 17 to 18 to 1 ratios for a time in the metro with the cold air amd some of the sounding and snow growth zone yall were showing
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Post by jeepers on Feb 2, 2022 20:53:40 GMT -6
No sleet! Argh #2
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Post by TK on Feb 2, 2022 20:53:42 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 20:54:52 GMT -6
I agree this may be as close to blizzard conditions in the area as we get for a period in the early morning
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2022 20:55:32 GMT -6
I would not rule out 17 to 18 to 1 ratios for a time in the metro with the cold air amd some of the sounding and snow growth zone yall were showing Everything I've seen has 13-15/1 |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 20:58:18 GMT -6
Thank you coz, i should of clarified, I would not be supprised to see that for a time under the intense bands, but 13 to 15 is a solid ratio.
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Post by MakeitRain on Feb 2, 2022 20:58:28 GMT -6
Favoring Canadian.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 2, 2022 20:59:10 GMT -6
Sleety showery stuff really starting to bubble down south around Frederick town to cape and Salem area.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 2, 2022 21:02:49 GMT -6
Light snow being reported as far northeast as Waynesville. It's coming.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 21:02:54 GMT -6
Upstream trends and obs are looking very encouraging for the 44/70 corridor and points SE.
Daybreak is looking absolutely glorious.
Let's do this!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 2, 2022 21:06:15 GMT -6
0Z ICON is a dream. Nearly continuous snow until dawn Friday south of I-44/I-64/70, bonus wave more or less is assimilated into a larger/longer 2nd wave, also trying to briefly ramp up as it passes and finally diminishes toward daybreak Friday.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 2, 2022 21:09:17 GMT -6
Sleety showery stuff really starting to bubble down south around Frederick town to cape and Salem area. No to sleet. There's my 'activism' for the day. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 21:12:33 GMT -6
I think we're about to witness something special. There's signs that model output is shutting this down too quickly tomorrow. The 300/500mb pattern is ripe as can be and models are veering out the mid-level flow prematurely, IMO. This is looking REALLY good for the region.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 2, 2022 21:14:18 GMT -6
I think we're about to witness something special. There's signs that model output is shutting this down too quickly tomorrow. The 300/500mb pattern is ripe as can be and models are veering out the mid-level flow prematurely, IMO. This is looking REALLY good for the region. Seems like the hi res have been holding onto it longer the last few hours..maybe as late at 6pm or so.. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 2, 2022 21:15:37 GMT -6
Who’s going to get under that death band riding just N of 44? Like riding now? Because the max snow band tomorrow is going to be South of 44. In fact you are almost cerrato going to be in it. I think you will get 10" minimum. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 2, 2022 21:16:21 GMT -6
I think we're about to witness something special. There's signs that model output is shutting this down too quickly tomorrow. The 300/500mb pattern is ripe as can be and models are veering out the mid-level flow prematurely, IMO. This is looking REALLY good for the region. 00z models have definitely been delaying the shutdown time tomorrow. Looking like snow might be flying till sunset, maybe longer |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 21:17:20 GMT -6
Real radar trends have a nice band north of where I thought, you folks in troy are still very much in the game in my opinion for a solid 5 inches.
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Post by thechaser on Feb 2, 2022 21:21:54 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 2, 2022 21:22:07 GMT -6
Sleety showery stuff really starting to bubble down south around Frederick town to cape and Salem area. No to sleet. There's my 'activism' for the day. Lol we should make signs I think we should be good this time though. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 21:25:27 GMT -6
Real radar trends have a nice band north of where I thought, you folks in troy are still very much in the game in my opinion for a solid 5 inches. Agreed. I think models shifted a bit too far S with the N fringe...maybe by 20-30 miles or so.
Along/SE of 44/70 is definitely the prime zone for the highest amounts though.
00z NAM is showing the 50kt LLJ again across S/Central IL mid-day. Definitely potential for fairly sustained 35mph gusts in that region away from sheltered areas. That will blow the powder around very efficiently.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 21:26:33 GMT -6
Is that snow in Rolla hitting the ground?
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 2, 2022 21:28:10 GMT -6
I think we're about to witness something special. There's signs that model output is shutting this down too quickly tomorrow. The 300/500mb pattern is ripe as can be and models are veering out the mid-level flow prematurely, IMO. This is looking REALLY good for the region. Was just coming on here to post this. Alarm Is set. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 2, 2022 21:29:34 GMT -6
RaP looks awesome. Sref Airport mean : 6 but a cluster of 4 AT 10" Belleville: 8 and no real duds Farmington: 9 I’m on mobile—what’s KSAR (Sparta)? I would think in line with KFAM. Correct. |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2022 21:33:11 GMT -6
Each HRRR run is getting better.
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Post by bear1 on Feb 2, 2022 21:33:19 GMT -6
Is that snow in Rolla hitting the ground? I just looked at Modot traffic cams & it's starting to cover the roadways with blowing snow. |
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