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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 29, 2022 8:07:54 GMT -6
Looks like a Big Tornado Day for parts of north central Kansas into parts of south central and eastern Nebraska today today per the SPC latest outlook. Storms even get into the western counties after midnight but lose intensity. EURO quite frisky with AM convection as well as the RAP, but the other models show much less, with the 12Z NAM showing some but mostly north of 70.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 29, 2022 8:35:12 GMT -6
Early next week bears some watching around here. Looks like a potent shortwave ejecting and some favorable parameters for severe weather.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 29, 2022 8:45:25 GMT -6
Early next week bears some watching around here. Looks like a potent shortwave ejecting and some favorable parameters for severe weather. by sunday it'll look like crap, like every other potential we've had lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 29, 2022 9:28:05 GMT -6
Early next week bears some watching around here. Looks like a potent shortwave ejecting and some favorable parameters for severe weather. Looks like a nocturnal warm front setup to me...Monday PM/Tuesday AM...but that could change. Timing of FROPA is far from ideal tomorrow...looks like a rainer during the morning hours with possible redevelopment with a marginal severe threat across the eastern counties. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 29, 2022 10:05:51 GMT -6
Early next week bears some watching around here. Looks like a potent shortwave ejecting and some favorable parameters for severe weather. Looks like a nocturnal warm front setup to me...Monday PM/Tuesday AM...but that could change. Timing of FROPA is far from ideal tomorrow...looks like a rainer during the morning hours with possible redevelopment with a marginal severe threat across the eastern counties. Timing and instability do look in question.
Not too often you see an 85 CWASP value around here, especially 3 days out
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 29, 2022 10:35:27 GMT -6
An arc from Topeka, KS to Hastings, NE looks to be the bulls eye of today's threat. SPC honing in on a high-end moderate risk threat there.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 29, 2022 11:16:50 GMT -6
May looks like a two-faced month. Starts of generally chilly to cold (by May Standards), then heats up the last 2 weeks or so of the month. Nothing stupid hot, but definitely warmer then we have been used to most of this Spring. Severe weather very iffy but seems to favor continued below normal activity locally as a whole until late month which into mid June may very well be our 'peak' of severe weather season before we turn hotter and drier heading into Summer. Possible that Summer could be 'front-loaded' with most of the longer lasting heat and dryness in the 1st half then turning more seasonable (maybe even a hair below) and somewhat wetter into August and September.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 29, 2022 11:32:45 GMT -6
only a forecast thru this summer and not summer 2036?
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 29, 2022 12:02:42 GMT -6
Looks like they moved the threat for severe weather for Saturday farther east we’re out of the 2 zone for St. Louis.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 29, 2022 12:30:33 GMT -6
Looks pretty soggy the next few hours along and north of I-70 according to the radar. Seems to be holding together and tracking farther south than most models have been showing through the day.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 29, 2022 13:01:44 GMT -6
Looks like they moved the threat for severe weather for Saturday farther east we’re out of the 2 zone for St. Louis. welcome to 12 hours ago |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 29, 2022 13:46:32 GMT -6
Well its the HRRrrrrr, but it fires some discrete cells right on top of the metro tomorrow afternoon  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 29, 2022 15:34:01 GMT -6
It's too early to completely turn our back on a severe threat near STL metro... definitely a higher concern in Illinois though.
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Post by mchafin on Apr 29, 2022 16:33:10 GMT -6
Anyone feel that? Either crazy odd thunder or earthquake?
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Post by snowjunky on Apr 29, 2022 16:34:26 GMT -6
Anyone feel that? Either crazy odd thunder or earthquake? My entire neighborhood in Ballwin is outside talking about it. We all felt the BOOM. |
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Post by mchafin on Apr 29, 2022 16:36:25 GMT -6
Anyone feel that? Either crazy odd thunder or earthquake? My entire neighborhood in Ballwin is outside talking about it. We all felt the BOOM. That was weird. I heard what I thought was the beginning of thunder rolling. Then a “boom” although not a boom. Then the thunder sound moving away. I suspect earthquake. Anyone confirm? |
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Post by mchafin on Apr 29, 2022 16:37:48 GMT -6
My entire neighborhood in Ballwin is outside talking about it. We all felt the BOOM. That was weird. I heard what I thought was the beginning of thunder rolling. Then a “boom” although not a boom. Then the thunder sound moving away. I suspect earthquake. Anyone confirm? USGS has it. Centered 3KM SW of Peerless park |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 29, 2022 16:44:38 GMT -6
Felt it as well in Arnold. Heard a distant boom and then the whole house shook.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Apr 29, 2022 16:48:14 GMT -6
We felt it in North St. Pete.
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Stormfan
Weather Weenie
Butler Hill/Kerth
Posts: 52
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Post by Stormfan on Apr 29, 2022 16:51:15 GMT -6
Was in the basement organizing things, heard a low loud rumble and then what sound like a giant explosion and shook the entire house. It was loud enough that it literally hurt my ears, wondering if that's because I was in the basement. The neighbors talking said they thought there was an explosion nearby. I told thought it sounded more like an earthquake. I'm near 55 and Butler Hill
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 29, 2022 16:53:42 GMT -6
That was weird. I heard what I thought was the beginning of thunder rolling. Then a “boom” although not a boom. Then the thunder sound moving away. I suspect earthquake. Anyone confirm? USGS has it. Centered 3KM SW of Peerless park 2.5 magnitude and 1.7km deep |
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 29, 2022 16:54:12 GMT -6
I heard and felt it up here in Ferguson, it did sound like thunder and or sonic booms just as they said.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Apr 29, 2022 16:54:33 GMT -6
That was a really shallow earthquake. Slightly over a mile deep.
Edit: looks like they’ve revised it to about 4 miles deep.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 29, 2022 16:58:00 GMT -6
Wife felt it, I wasn't ten feet from her and I didn't. 7 Mi west of DeSoto
That is very shallow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 29, 2022 17:02:40 GMT -6
i miss all the good stuff lol
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Apr 29, 2022 17:13:46 GMT -6
Looks like they moved the threat for severe weather for Saturday farther east we’re out of the 2 zone for St. Louis. welcome to 12 hours ago Not a necessary comment. Especially from a moderator. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 29, 2022 17:24:37 GMT -6
Not a necessary comment. Especially from a moderator. I saw it on fox2 |
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Apr 29, 2022 17:44:07 GMT -6
Where did this Earthquake come from? Dormant fault line underneath the epicenter? Perhaps an underground cave collapsing?
Reminds me of my days in Oklahoma. In the three years we lived there I probably felt 20-30 earthquakes with a magnitude 4.0 or higher. Not fun. The largest was a 5.8 I believe. Earthquakes are probably what scare me the most because you can't predict them. The continuous fracking down in Oklahoma essentially activated dormant fault-lines. The quakes have sense subsided.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Apr 29, 2022 17:44:59 GMT -6
Not a necessary comment. Especially from a moderator. I saw it on fox2 That wasn't directed at you. |
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455
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Post by luvhockey on Apr 29, 2022 19:36:36 GMT -6
Sorry I don’t know how to insert the tweet. can someone explain (and copy the image) how to read the seismic graph from JeffCo? Especially the single line that goes to the top of the page. OK, I guess I do know how to insert! It wouldn’t preview  |
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