|
|
Post by Snowman99 on May 12, 2022 12:01:59 GMT -6
GFS pretty consistent on something gnarly forming in the Gulf towards the Labor Day Weekend, looks powerful like a Cat 1 to 3 storm. wow gfs goes out to September now? Crazy |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 12, 2022 12:13:02 GMT -6
GFS pretty consistent on something gnarly forming in the Gulf towards the Labor Day Weekend, looks powerful like a Cat 1 to 3 storm. wow gfs goes out to September now? Crazy "Experimental" |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on May 12, 2022 12:28:21 GMT -6
85 degrees upstairs in my house thanks to a broken A/C. Sometimes I wish I was in an apartment…
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on May 12, 2022 12:43:52 GMT -6
wow gfs goes out to September now? Crazy "Experimental" Meant Memorial Day. Always flipping the two around for some reason, even irl... Memorial Day to Labor Day is all a Summer Blur anyway. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on May 12, 2022 12:49:10 GMT -6
Next week is looking moist   |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 12, 2022 13:32:46 GMT -6
Yeah, the heavy rainfall potential next week is looking significant, IMO
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on May 12, 2022 14:42:35 GMT -6
Rare PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch with gust up to 105mph possible
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 12, 2022 16:03:53 GMT -6
Rare PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch with gust up to 105mph possible Wow!! Ya I was checking that out. Radarscope was picking up gusts near 115mph!!!! |
|
|
|
Post by toddatfarmington on May 13, 2022 6:31:08 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on May 13, 2022 7:07:53 GMT -6
They Saturday outlook could be a group Tshirt. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 13, 2022 7:40:00 GMT -6
The severe threat this evening looks pretty marginal to me...probably limited to isolated strong/severe downburst winds. Sunday may need to be watched closely though...that looks like a good setup for supercells with much stronger bulk shear developing. Those NW flow events can be nasty.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on May 13, 2022 7:54:15 GMT -6
The GFS isn't exactly outlandish showing the tropical cyclone. The Euro also shows low level vorticity around Panama and even gets a closed low going. It's just that it shows it crossing over into the Pacific before it can really do anything. And we've seen it before early in the season where the GFS sniffed out development down there well ahead of the Euro. I'm not saying that will happen this time. I'm just saying I wouldn't dismiss the possibility.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 13, 2022 9:46:36 GMT -6
Kudos to SPC with a spot on outlook yesterday up there in NE/SD/MN yesterday. Maybe one question...wind driven high risk would have verified in hindsight but I didn't follow the forecasting well enough to make on comment on the certainty of a severe MCS at the time. But it's made me wonder, given some of the derechos of previous years, some of which I felt were fairly well forecastable, have we seen the effective end of wind driven high risk outlooks? If I recall correctly wasn't the last wind driven high risk back in like 2014 or something?
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on May 13, 2022 9:46:45 GMT -6
Clouding up in Bonne Terre!
|
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 13, 2022 10:02:55 GMT -6
Clouds forming off to the west in O'Fallon IL.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 13, 2022 10:07:55 GMT -6
Some popup showers trying to get going along/E of the river.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on May 13, 2022 10:19:00 GMT -6
Kudos to SPC with a spot on outlook yesterday up there in NE/SD/MN yesterday. Maybe one question...wind driven high risk would have verified in hindsight but I didn't follow the forecasting well enough to make on comment on the certainty of a severe MCS at the time. But it's made me wonder, given some of the derechos of previous years, some of which I felt were fairly well forecastable, have we seen the effective end of wind driven high risk outlooks? If I recall correctly wasn't the last wind driven high risk back in like 2014 or something? I’ve been wondering about that as well. Yesterday seemed like a great time to break out the 60% sig wind. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on May 13, 2022 10:30:18 GMT -6
Radar really bursting in the metro-east. hugging I-255/1-270 into Monroe county.
|
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 13, 2022 10:34:16 GMT -6
Come to mama...
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 13, 2022 10:40:59 GMT -6
Stationary boundary just east of the river really lighting up with pulse storms now.
This evening looks pretty noisy for the region as the front out west finally makes it into the area.
NAM looks like a pretty decent setup for severe storms Sunday, although 0-3km shear is somewhat marginal and there's some veer/back profile in the upper column. Cool/dry air in the mid-levels suggests a large hail threat as well as microburst potential. Higher LCLs and veered 0-1km winds would keep the tornado threat to a minimum. Could be a sneaky setup though.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 13, 2022 10:42:50 GMT -6
They don't look to have much motion to them.
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on May 13, 2022 10:47:23 GMT -6
Millstadt reporting pea sized hail
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on May 13, 2022 10:58:55 GMT -6
All my watering of our new grass we planted in the backyard over the past several days must of loaded the atmosphere...  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 13, 2022 11:24:12 GMT -6
They don't look to have much motion to them. Looks like a radar loop straight out of late July or August... |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 13, 2022 12:17:16 GMT -6
Stationary boundary just east of the river really lighting up with pulse storms now. This evening looks pretty noisy for the region as the front out west finally makes it into the area. NAM looks like a pretty decent setup for severe storms Sunday, although 0-3km shear is somewhat marginal and there's some veer/back profile in the upper column. Cool/dry air in the mid-levels suggests a large hail threat as well as microburst potential. Higher LCLs and veered 0-1km winds would keep the tornado threat to a minimum. Could be a sneaky setup though. I sure hope we get something this evening... |
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 13, 2022 12:39:40 GMT -6
The radar looks awesome, how the storms ride the river to the south.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on May 13, 2022 12:56:56 GMT -6
I got absolutely soaked coming out of an appointment in the west end of Belleville around 12:30. Drove to the east end and nary a drop.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on May 13, 2022 13:40:20 GMT -6
Looks like CI should begin soon with agitated cumulus starting to form along the remnant outflow to our west. Plenty of instability out there with a pocket of 4000j/kg SBCAPE sitting over the area.  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 13, 2022 15:50:43 GMT -6
Surface chart shows a weak low along the boundary over the W counties near 70 with good convergence...would think storms will fire within the next hour or two at most.
Edit: Lone cell going up near Fulton now
|
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 13, 2022 17:12:14 GMT -6
When will the push come to move the storms through the area? I would love to be under one of them.
|
|
