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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 19:28:54 GMT -6
I got a package coming Thursday hope it gets here before the snow really starts.
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 19:48:25 GMT -6
Man - I never seen it so dead in here before a decent storm- VERY strange....
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 20, 2022 19:51:46 GMT -6
Nothing new to talk about with respect to this week. Models agree, mets agree. Good to go.
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Post by freezyfree on Dec 20, 2022 19:54:10 GMT -6
I think our plan is that our son will get to OKC asap when he gets out of training at Altus Thursday and just see what flight he can get to STL if something happens to his Friday AM flight……. I love snow, but I hate this.
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mmkjmg
Weather Weenie
Posts: 21 
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Post by mmkjmg on Dec 20, 2022 19:55:39 GMT -6
My daily run is from Jefferson City to North Liberty, Iowa
Looks like Wednesday night and Thursday night will be interesting
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 20, 2022 20:00:55 GMT -6
Yes I agree, not nearly the buzz from family and friends about this storm. Most people at work barely know there is a prediction of snow. It's because folks don't take cold seriously. 30-40+ wind gusts are pretty common throughout the year with bigger weather systems. Cold, even extreme cold folks can still get out in their cars in. Snow is another story. 1-2 inches can cause problems because it is just enough to get the frozen ground covered. But because its not a big snow. They aren't taking it seriously... What they aren't taking into consideration is all 3 put together. That's why this is serious. Not to mention it's a big holiday travel week. And last min shopping. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 20, 2022 20:03:59 GMT -6
Yes I agree, not nearly the buzz from family and friends about this storm. Most people at work barely know there is a prediction of snow. It's because folks don't take cold seriously. 30-40+ wind gusts are pretty common throughout the year with bigger weather systems. Cold, even extreme cold folks can still get out in their cars in. Snow is another story. 1-2 inches can cause problems because it is just enough to get the frozen ground covered. But because its not a big snow. They aren't taking it seriously... What they aren't taking into consideration is all 3 put together. That's why this is serious. Not to mention it's a big holiday travel week. And last min shopping. They'll be surprised. And then blame the Mets on why they didn't explain it to each and every person, in every single geographical location what will happen in their neighborhoods and on their driveways... |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 20, 2022 20:08:56 GMT -6
Black ice may be a thing as well as snow blows across roadways. This is not the black ice we think of when roads freeze overnight after a day of melting. This is a seemingly dry pavement that has frozen.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 20:12:06 GMT -6
Man - I never seen it so dead in here before a decent storm- VERY strange.... Maybe people are getting ready. |
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 20:18:35 GMT -6
Black ice may be a thing as well as snow blows across roadways. This is not the black ice we think of when roads freeze overnight after a day of melting. This is a seemingly dry pavement that has frozen. I know that one very well....Hit slightly snow covered patch a few years back when temp was 0 and totaled my car spinning into guard rail. Colder temps make an incredible difference and when you add blowing snow - yes it is incredibly dangerous - Definitely is not your average 32 degree 2-4 inch normal snow storm. Please learn from me - ANY blowing snow on roadway + bitter cold = Dangerous icy conditions. Please be careful out there. |
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Dec 20, 2022 20:23:15 GMT -6
My daily run is from Jefferson City to North Liberty, Iowa Looks like Wednesday night and Thursday night will be interesting Don’t think you will be making that run in the normal 8 to 9 hours. I assume you’re in a big truck and maybe pulling pups. No matter sounds like a really tough day at work. Be safe |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 20, 2022 20:23:17 GMT -6
I get the feeling that a lot of people in STL are not that impressed with this storm when they hear 2-4 inches with wind and bitter cold. I think they believe this is something they have seen many times before. IMO Well, if they think that, it's their own fault for not LISTENING and READING. We are doomed as a nation lol. I will point out at least one possible "local' reason for that. Unfortunately, I can't remember the exact quote but I was screaming at the radio. It came down to the idea or perception that 'we' didn't know whether 'we' would get any snow or not. I literally was screaming at the radio because this person IS NOT fulfilling the job of informing the public with the known dangers/hazards of this particular storm that is being presented by TAXPAYER FUNDED GOVERNMENT WEATHER OFFICE personnel and local meteorologists. Anyway, I will try and find the transcript/replay of this particular show to get the exact quote and edit this post. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 20:27:52 GMT -6
NAM holds its course of 3-4 hour post frontal snow with no low development 1-2” snow , probably the lowest qpf, it’s actually similar to the ukie has been showing for days. Hopefully it’s wrong
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 20, 2022 20:31:10 GMT -6
NAM and hi-res NAM are fast and stingy.
FV3 much more robust and intense with precip, not sure if viable though.
HRRR decent 2-4 area wide.
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 20:51:19 GMT -6
I would be happy if we get 1-2 the way it is looking right now...
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 21:00:35 GMT -6
I would be happy if we get 1-2 the way it is looking right now... Why how is it looking now? |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 21:02:30 GMT -6
RGEM still strong and probably the most snow 3-5” kuchera
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Dec 20, 2022 21:11:43 GMT -6
Will the storm be sampled in time for 00z Gfs and Euro?
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 21:13:26 GMT -6
At this point I would not expect any major shifts with the storm
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 21:15:27 GMT -6
I would be happy if we get 1-2 the way it is looking right now... Why how is it looking now? I'm just really concerned of the faster track and eastern movement trends |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 21:17:06 GMT -6
The energy should be pretty well sampled for the 00z runs
I know they were flying some special missions the other day to sample the energy when it was still out over the Pacific
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Dec 20, 2022 21:17:56 GMT -6
Thanks 920!!!!
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Dec 20, 2022 21:22:15 GMT -6
My work canceled our Christmas lunch party on Thu. I’m glad they are taking it seriously. They plan on sending most everyone home by the time the party was supposed to start.
Closed Fri to those that can’t work from home. Very grateful
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 21:34:17 GMT -6
Fox2 Weather snowfall nam only listed 2.5 in for the Metro area.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 20, 2022 21:40:51 GMT -6
Well, if they think that, it's their own fault for not LISTENING and READING. We are doomed as a nation lol. I will point out at least one possible "local' reason for that. Unfortunately, I can't remember the exact quote but I was screaming at the radio. It came down to the idea or perception that 'we' didn't know whether 'we' would get any snow or not. I literally was screaming at the radio because this person IS NOT fulfilling the job of informing the public with the known dangers/hazards of this particular storm that is being presented by TAXPAYER FUNDED GOVERNMENT WEATHER OFFICE personnel and local meteorologists. Anyway, I will try and find the transcript/replay of this particular show to get the exact quote and edit this post. So here is one quote....."we will talk to _________ about the impending blizzard/non blizzard, we don't know." Now, could this possibly be done for a type of ratings 'gotcha' to make sure people continue to listen, maybe, but it is still wrong, to me, that with this type of impending dangerous weather you shouldn't put doubt into the equation for ratings or monetary reasons. JMHO |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 20, 2022 21:44:27 GMT -6
Comparing Nam 0z vs 18z at 12/23 06z the 0z has a weaker/not as much negative tilt than the 18z. I guess this could be from the zippity speed that its moving preventing a more pronounced 'pivot', at least near us. I hadn't gone any further in the model run.
Edit: Upon further review I guess the transition to the negative tilt is just occurring a little further east. At 12/23 18z the storm is over Lake Erie and the same strenth. I guess it doesn't change a whole lot for us.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 21:52:14 GMT -6
I have a feeling NWS will convert our Winter Storm Watch in to a Winter Storm Warning, I doubt we will get a Blizzard Warning here. I could definitely see them issue them up in northern Illinois/Northern Indiana and Michigan. I guess I could be wrong.
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 21:54:03 GMT -6
Comparing Nam 0z vs 18z at 12/23 06z the 0z has a weaker/not as much negative tilt than the 18z. I guess this could be from the zippity speed that its moving preventing a more pronounced 'pivot', at least near us. I hadn't gone any further in the model run. Edit: Upon further review I guess the transition to the negative tilt is just occurring a little further east. At 12/23 18z the storm is over Lake Erie and the same strenth. I guess it doesn't change a whole lot for us. Yes- As I mentioned it is the increased speed and Eastern trend that worries me |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 21:55:32 GMT -6
The 00z gfs is good.
More like that please.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 21:56:30 GMT -6
The 00z gfs is good. More like that please. Slightly more robust. I dig it.
Even gets CHI in that coveted deformation zone
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