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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 20, 2022 21:57:34 GMT -6
I would imagine as we get closer, the speed will become even more apparent on the models. This storm is doing everything I said was unlikely 4 or 5 days ago. I was looking for a more southeast digging and a slowing due to the blocking. I was also looking at more of a post storm event where we'd get snow squalls/showers as the storm slowed to our northeast. But it's getting caught up in the fast flow and swept away quickly. Fortunately I never got caught up in the insane amounts. There's been a pattern of recent where the models were too generous in their qpf only to back off, sometimes way off. Plus I like to see 3 runs before I take that bait. I would bet that the NAM gets a little more generous tomorrow though, but history has shown us that it might overdo it.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 20, 2022 22:07:43 GMT -6
Nice sounding off the GfS, good lapse rates thru the DGZ, some omega and PWs .41 with temps in the teens. Lots to work with.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 20, 2022 22:09:54 GMT -6
I get the feeling that a lot of people in STL are not that impressed with this storm when they hear 2-4 inches with wind and bitter cold. I think they believe this is something they have seen many times before. IMO Unfortunately, they are generally the same people who have vehicles with bald (or nearly bald) tires, 7 or 8 year old batteries, old wiper blades, mostly water in their radiator, very little gas in the tank and no blankets or extra coats in the back seat or sand and a shovel in the trunk. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 22:12:11 GMT -6
The GFS looks fantastic.
Very very very nice blob of snow that's what we need.
So everyone gets in on it.
The GEFS looks solid as well.
RGEM looks very very good as well.
The nam looks fine too.
Just a bit more dry and less amplified.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 22:14:19 GMT -6
If there is going to be a "max" band it's looking like SWIL to the NNE is in the best spot attm.
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 22:15:11 GMT -6
The GFS looks fantastic. Very very very nice blob of snow that's what we need. So everyone gets in on it. The GEFS looks solid as well. RGEM looks very very good as well. The nam looks fine too. Just a bit more dry and less amplified. FRIV in the house to encourage us off the ledge! Does less amplified equal less than 2-4 for STL area? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 22:16:08 GMT -6
I get the feeling that a lot of people in STL are not that impressed with this storm when they hear 2-4 inches with wind and bitter cold. I think they believe this is something they have seen many times before. IMO When I went to schnucks in Swansea Illinois earlier the line was 30-40 people deep. |
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 22:18:58 GMT -6
I get the feeling that a lot of people in STL are not that impressed with this storm when they hear 2-4 inches with wind and bitter cold. I think they believe this is something they have seen many times before. IMO When I went to schnucks in Swansea Illinois earlier the line was 30-40 people deep. In O'Fallon Mo it was empty... |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 22:20:52 GMT -6
Just back from the Garden Glow... and wow... that is really one of my favorite holiday spots. Just something about it.
Anyway, I've skimmed what we have of the 00z runs... it all looks good.. supportive of our current forecast for the most part. There really isnt much to add at this point that has not already been discussed over and over again.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 22:22:07 GMT -6
Just back from the Garden Glow... and wow... that is really one of my favorite holiday spots. Just something about it. Anyway, I've skimmed what we have of the 00z runs... it all looks good.. supportive of our current forecast for the most part. There really isnt much to add at this point that has not already been discussed over and over again. So just sit back and wait now |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 22:28:00 GMT -6
The GFS looks fantastic. Very very very nice blob of snow that's what we need. So everyone gets in on it. The GEFS looks solid as well. RGEM looks very very good as well. The nam looks fine too. Just a bit more dry and less amplified. FRIV in the house to encourage us off the ledge! Does less amplified equal less than 2-4 for STL area? 2-4" is a good forecast for now. Honestly the way the system is orientated as it plows through the Mississippi valley is for an enhanced band of snow to likely be over the a southern or far East viewing area. The 00Z GFS at 500 millibars is quite noticably more amplified like the 18Z euro compared to the other models. So we'll see |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 20, 2022 22:35:28 GMT -6
Looks like most models have the front blowing through around Noon Thursday right? Most are showing 18z
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 22:40:05 GMT -6
FRIV in the house to encourage us off the ledge! Does less amplified equal less than 2-4 for STL area? 2-4" is a good forecast for now. Honestly the way the system is orientated as it plows through the Mississippi valley is for an enhanced band of snow to likely be over the a southern or far East viewing area. The 00Z GFS at 500 millibars is quite noticably more amplified like the 18Z euro compared to the other models. So we'll see In other words your golden and Western STL is not...lol.... |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 20, 2022 22:44:13 GMT -6
I just can't believe you were locked in as the bullseye just 18 hours ago and it has drastically changed that much... Yeah, STL gets screwed a lot, but so do most other places. Still should be impressive, just not historic for up here. You see what the storm is going to do once it grabs a ton of moisture from Lake Michigan? Gonna be a monster of a storm even for the Northwoods |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 22:51:35 GMT -6
The 00z Ukmet is bad.
Very consistent model for this storm.
Hopefully, it is consistently wrong for this one.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 20, 2022 22:54:47 GMT -6
I would imagine as we get closer, the speed will become even more apparent on the models. This storm is doing everything I said was unlikely 4 or 5 days ago. I was looking for a more southeast digging and a slowing due to the blocking. I was also looking at more of a post storm event where we'd get snow squalls/showers as the storm slowed to our northeast. But it's getting caught up in the fast flow and swept away quickly. Fortunately I never got caught up in the insane amounts. There's been a pattern of recent where the models were too generous in their qpf only to back off, sometimes way off. Plus I like to see 3 runs before I take that bait. I would bet that the NAM gets a little more generous tomorrow though, but history has shown us that it might overdo it. The blocking is still there for the most part, it’s just kind of going around it. I think most sensible people are in some way glad the snow amounts decreased so that loss of life and property aren’t as pronounced. However, there is still a part of all of us, especially those of us too young to remember the storms of the late 70s and early 80s, that were wishing for a blockbuster. |
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 22:55:44 GMT -6
Maybe the Ukmet was right all along
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Post by amstilost on Dec 20, 2022 23:02:04 GMT -6
The 00z Ukmet is bad. Very consistent model for this storm. Hopefully, it is consistently wrong for this one. I seen that too and my first thought was....no city is ever going to let Jim Cantore in again. Or, snow haters will start to pay for his services.  |
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Post by thechaser on Dec 20, 2022 23:03:32 GMT -6
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Post by grizzlebeard on Dec 20, 2022 23:05:08 GMT -6
A few common sense rules for lurkers:
1. Model consistency reduces comment. Not much to argue about if models are roughly in line.
2. Model consistency is the most reliable indicator of result. Don't chase outliers.
3. If the most reasonable outcome hasn't changed in several model runs, go with the consensus.
4. At some point the model worshippers need to realize .1 QPF one way or the other in ANY forecast just won't matter regardless of what the HRRR says. Take a deep breath and enjoy the extra inch of snow.
Grizz
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 23:08:29 GMT -6
HREF is severely underutilized for snowfall forecasting and just winter weather in general. More people need to use it. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 0:22:29 GMT -6
All but the EPS are in and while there are the usual small adjustments within each model and each run... everything is supporting our current forecast. I don't see any need for changes... across the viewing area... the range will be 2-5 inches... metro STL... 2-4.
The message must still be not to focus on the low snowfall totals... focus on the impact of the snow, cold and wind.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 21, 2022 5:08:51 GMT -6
Winter Storm Warning and Windchill Warning Issued
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Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57 
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Dec 21, 2022 5:18:41 GMT -6
All but the EPS are in and while there are the usual small adjustments within each model and each run... everything is supporting our current forecast. I don't see any need for changes... across the viewing area... the range will be 2-5 inches... metro STL... 2-4. The message must still be not to focus on the low snowfall totals... focus on the impact of the snow, cold and wind. I'm getting am worried down(Farmington/Fredericktown) here; people are focusing on the snowfall and not the cold and windchills. I got an "ehhh.... nothing to worry about" from a co-worker yesterday but he's never seen temperature/wind chills like these. |
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Post by dragons7stegen on Dec 21, 2022 6:36:56 GMT -6
Anything noteworthy in latest model runs? It is rather quiet in here for the lead up to a snow event. I know everyone is excited about some snow and not so much the extreme cold and wind. I am excited to watch it fall and just for a break for the teachers on the board. My family has been fighting off just about every virus going around seemingly. Hope we can get to break, stay warm and cozy in our homes and get healthy to enjoy the holidays with family when this stuff clears ( both the virus crap and the ridiculous cold/wind). Happy holidays and a merry Christmas everyone and enjoy the prospect of a white Christmas , we don’t get too many of those around here.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 21, 2022 6:39:40 GMT -6
Wow, the 06z GFS has the surface low dropping 44mb in 30 hours down to a 960mb low at 12/24 03z hr. Buckle up.
I had to quickly look up the non-tropical U.S. record low barometric pressures for the upper Midwest.
MIDWEST: 955.2 mb (28.21”) Big, Fork, Minnesota on 10/26/2010
OHIO VALLEY: 956 mb (28.23”) Mount Clemens, Michigan 1/26/1978
So, the GFS, in just under 72 hrs or 3 days has a very intense storm modeled. I never considered 72 hrs from a 'premier' long range forecast system to be 'Model Fantasy Land". From listening to most of you on here the 'set up' of this pattern has this 'potential'. Any thoughts on the prospect of this happening? Just wondering if this will be a major 'drop off' of measured Skill for the updated GFS model.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 21, 2022 7:03:04 GMT -6
On approximately this date 13 years ago, one of our posters made what I consider to be one of the funniest and best rants of this board. If any of you haven't followed the blog since its birth or saw the repost several years ago, you may not have ever seen it. Snowman99's Christmas Eve storm of 2009 " Merry Muddy Christmas " rant : I have followed this storm for the last 9 days. It looked so promising for a good part of that time. Iowa has had a blizzard this winter as has Nebraska, NE Kansas, and Wisconsin. The east coast just had a historic snowstorm. Houston had 1-4 inches of snow in early December..earliest snow ever. Valdez, Alaska had almost 6 FEET of snow last week. It has 'snowed' here 3 or 4 times, with a grand total of a half inch here in Union. There are blizzard watches for parts of Kansas right now, watch the winter storm watches blossom tonight into Iowa and the rest of Nebraska. While we may receive 3 inches of rain. Sounds fun doesn't it? We didn't get enough rain in October so we need a few more inches for Christmas. Thunderstorms, flooding, heavy rain, probably flood watches issued for us, I can't wait. Maybe I'll go out Christmas morning and make a nice mudman, I was looking forward to letting my dog run around in a nice snow, he loves doing that, now if I let him out to run around he's going to be a huge muddy mess, he's a Westie, so he's white, so that's a problem, lol. I'm not even waiting for anymore model runs this morning to put my chance out there, and believe me it pains me severely to do this, but I will dramatically decrease our White Christmas chance to 3%. The only reason it's that high is to have the possibility of a southeast adjustment to the track and possible back wash snows to add up to an inch, if they stick around long enough. By the way backwash is gross, so who the hell wants 'backwash snow'? I really hope I'm a premature predictor here and I have to eat my words tonight or tomorrow when the new runs come out. Can't wait to hear the local weather people say, "if you're traveling north and west of St. Louis you'll have snow and problems, but around the St.Louis area, just wet roads, so no problems, so that's another bullet we dodged, that's good news" It's enough to make me scream, haha. Sorry for the length of my post and that 90% was bitching, I really thought we had a chance, maybe next time, but probably not, lol. Everyone have a good week with family and friends, at least we won't have to abandon them to look at the latest on the snowstorm.   |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2022 7:27:46 GMT -6
Haha..classic.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 21, 2022 7:40:15 GMT -6
And we still got a White Christmas...but that was torture watching that storm hit a brick wall and cut to our west.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 21, 2022 7:59:48 GMT -6
Around here, it can rain 11 inches...11 solid inches, complete with flooding, basement water, road closures, etc, and you know what the 2 phrases of the day will be? 1)"Well, it looks like we dodged a bullet" and 2) "what if this were all snow?"
Well, for number 1, those who are sandbagging in 34 degree rainy weather or those who are cleaning up their basements beg to differ. For number 2, that really cant happen around here.
Weather, regardless of what it is affects us in some way. There are businesses who depend on snow. Its healthy to have a normal amount of snow even in st. Louis. Weather cant please everyone, so ppl adapt. They get through it, and at the end of the day, they move on.
And finally as another poster put it, "enjoy the weather because its the only weather we got".
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