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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 21, 2022 8:04:25 GMT -6
Following weather as a hobby is so funny.
On Nov 11th I went to bed early after working all day and woke up at 4 AM and had a half of a foot of snow outside. Had no idea.
On December 22nd we are going to get 2-3" after following this storm for 10 straight days.
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Post by bear1 on Dec 21, 2022 8:12:10 GMT -6
Another old Missouri saying, "if ya don't like the weather today, stick around 24 hours, it could change"!
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csafozzie
Wishcaster
Wildwood, MO. Jefferson, Franklin and St Louis County borders
Posts: 139
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Post by csafozzie on Dec 21, 2022 8:12:27 GMT -6
Uh... It is snowing here in Wildwood, enough to put a light coating on the ground. Where is this coming from? (And please don't say the sky.  ) |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 21, 2022 8:43:09 GMT -6
Fog rolling In down here
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 21, 2022 8:48:53 GMT -6
STL got upgraded to a winter storm warning before Chicago? What?!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 8:52:03 GMT -6
All but the EPS are in and while there are the usual small adjustments within each model and each run... everything is supporting our current forecast. I don't see any need for changes... across the viewing area... the range will be 2-5 inches... metro STL... 2-4. The message must still be not to focus on the low snowfall totals... focus on the impact of the snow, cold and wind. I'm getting am worried down(Farmington/Fredericktown) here; people are focusing on the snowfall and not the cold and windchills. I got an "ehhh.... nothing to worry about" from a co-worker yesterday but he's never seen temperature/wind chills like these. There is only so much we can do. The message has been clear and unmistakable in my opinion. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 8:55:29 GMT -6
Uh... It is snowing here in Wildwood, enough to put a light coating on the ground. Where is this coming from? (And please don't say the sky. ) What is your proximity to Hidden Valley? I would not be surprised if you were getting some of their blow off. That's all I've got. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 21, 2022 8:55:54 GMT -6
Uh... It is snowing here in Wildwood, enough to put a light coating on the ground. Where is this coming from? (And please don't say the sky. ) There's a bit of snow growth happening with the low cloud deck. There's some drizzly flakes falling here too. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 8:58:14 GMT -6
There have been some classic moments over the years, but that "Merry Muddy Christmas" is one for the archives!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 9:01:25 GMT -6
Have to hand it to the Canadians... when their model rolls... it rolls! It took like a minute (ok...maybe 5) for the first 36 hours to pop onto pivotal weather. It loads fast... and remains painfully consistent. It could be painfully wrong in the end. But other than some typical run to run wobbles... it has been very solid.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2022 9:05:18 GMT -6
STL got upgraded to a winter storm warning before Chicago? What?! The storm is hitting STL sooner and the regional standards are different so not surprising. They are considering a WWA instead of a WSW here too. |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Dec 21, 2022 9:06:04 GMT -6
We have a light coating of snow on the rooftops here in Lake St. Louis. Guess it is just time to wait and see and wonder how this all plays out.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 21, 2022 9:07:07 GMT -6
12Z NBM is saying 1.5" for KSTL.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 9:10:02 GMT -6
That seems a little low. 2-4 still looks really solid to me.
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Post by jeepers on Dec 21, 2022 9:20:10 GMT -6
I think that people don't care about wind chill because they either don't plan on being out in it, or don't plan on being stuck in it.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 21, 2022 9:32:03 GMT -6
Remember 2016? I think it was december 16 or maybe the week before. I know it was a friday. The freezing drizzle hit the west part of the metro area. I turned back towards eureka to get my daughter to watch rogue one to wait on the bridge to clear. It was eerie driving along the highway at midnight seeing cars abandoned all over the highway. It was just like a scene youd see in the movies. Talk abt low precip high impact.
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 21, 2022 9:41:44 GMT -6
I have a feeling this winter storm will end up being much more dangerous than people are giving it credit for, and unfortunately as a result, will be caught off guard.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 21, 2022 9:48:57 GMT -6
Difference between 2" and 4" is where that 500 vort starts to slow, organize just a tad and turn up N. Models are starting to hone in on heavier precip rates developing right over top of STL and a tad east. IF, IF, that can happen 30-50 miles sooner we can get more of a squall type line developing and get 3 really solid hours of 1"/hr stuff after some lighter snow to start.
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 21, 2022 9:50:13 GMT -6
12z GFS supports 2-4 nicely. Kuchera is more 4-6 area wide, 10:1 is more like 2-3.
Interesting trend from the GFS, HRRR, 15z RAP, and FV3 is a maxima developing in the Southern Counties
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2022 9:50:46 GMT -6
GFS continues to be one of the more robust models, printing out an area wide 4” using positive snow depth change.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 9:57:35 GMT -6
12z GFS supports 2-4 nicely. Kuchera is more 4-6 area wide, 10:1 is more like 2-3. Interesting trend from the GFS, HRRR, 15z RAP, and FV3 is a maxima developing in the Southern Counties Ive been watching that... has to do with jet dynamics and the vort in the base of the trough. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 21, 2022 10:01:52 GMT -6
12z GFS supports 2-4 nicely. Kuchera is more 4-6 area wide, 10:1 is more like 2-3. Interesting trend from the GFS, HRRR, 15z RAP, and FV3 is a maxima developing in the Southern Counties That's been a subtle but consistent trend the past couple days...the strongest forcing from the vort max sets up across the S half of the area. But the N half is favored for the greatest SLRs so it kind of evens out. A widespread 2-4" looks very likely at this point...any more than that will be difficult to obtain with the forward speed of this. Actually, if the NAM is to be trusted, barely anyone in the US gets 6"+ from this outside of the lake effect belts and Ontario/Quebec. And taken verbatim, it drops an inch or less across the Metro, which looks substantially underdone. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 21, 2022 10:02:40 GMT -6
GFS is generating some pretty high omega values right in the bullseye of the DGZ as the front moves through. Especially south of I-70.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 21, 2022 10:26:48 GMT -6
Isnt there a thing when it gets cold where ppl like to throw boiling water in the air to make falling snow? I seem to recall in past cold waves a thing like that. Im not advising of that though. Lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2022 10:29:14 GMT -6
google is an amazing thing
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Post by dragons7stegen on Dec 21, 2022 10:29:48 GMT -6
Great Falls MT(Montana) tweeted out a 26 degree drop in three minutes up there and some of the video of snow falling looks pure blizzard. mobile.twitter.com/nwsgreatfallsPure dream for us but that is insane temperature drop. Do we measure stuff like that or is it just daily ? Highest variance in degree change in a period ? Perhaps the quickest , and most abrupt change ? I was just curious about that and didn’t know if we keep records for that with the incoming cold front upstream? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 21, 2022 10:30:13 GMT -6
When is the last time we had wind chills of this magnitude? I seem to remember something when I was a kid in the 90's that was probably close, but that was under the old wind chill value system.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2022 10:30:58 GMT -6
Some of the hi res guidance is showing a heavy burst of snow or sleet on the leading edge of the arctic front tomorrow. Interesting to see if that verifies.
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Post by thechaser on Dec 21, 2022 10:31:30 GMT -6
Isnt there a thing when it gets cold where ppl like to throw boiling water in the air to make falling snow? I seem to recall in past cold waves a thing like that. Im not advising of that though. Lol I did that back on 1/6/14 when it was below zero (WeatherBug app at the time showed -4°F in Edwardsville). It worked when I did it! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2022 10:31:48 GMT -6
When is the last time we had wind chills of this magnitude? I seem to remember something when I was a kid in the 90's that was probably close, but that was under the old wind chill value system. January of 2014 I think |
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