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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 21, 2022 10:36:18 GMT -6
When is the last time we had wind chills of this magnitude? I seem to remember something when I was a kid in the 90's that was probably close, but that was under the old wind chill value system. January of 2014 I think Yea those were brutal. But I can't fathom 40 to maybe 50 mph wind with those temps like we have coming. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 21, 2022 10:38:57 GMT -6
When is the last time we had wind chills of this magnitude? I seem to remember something when I was a kid in the 90's that was probably close, but that was under the old wind chill value system. Jan 4th 2014 is the modern benchmark for severe cold/WCI and travel impacts. The low here was -11* with a WCI around -28 or -30*, so we're in the ballpark with this one. The wind will be worse this time around. |
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Post by thechaser on Dec 21, 2022 10:38:57 GMT -6
When is the last time we had wind chills of this magnitude? I seem to remember something when I was a kid in the 90's that was probably close, but that was under the old wind chill value system. January of 2014 I think The St. Louis metro area was under Wind Chill Warnings back on Jan. 29-30, 2019 for wind chills in the -20 to -30°F range. Lambert got down to -6°F as a low on the morning of the 30th with the high only being 8°F. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 21, 2022 11:13:01 GMT -6
The St. Louis metro area was under Wind Chill Warnings back on Jan. 29-30, 2019 for wind chills in the -20 to -30°F range. Lambert got down to -6°F as a low on the morning of the 30th with the high only being 8°F. Wasn't that the one that was super hyped up for quite a while, but really only ended up being about a day and a half of cold? I believe Lake Michigan looked like a cauldron during that too. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2022 11:29:11 GMT -6
15 minutes with no post. Slackers
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 21, 2022 11:32:57 GMT -6
Still looks like a 2-4" area wide.
With Southwest Illinois possibly in the 3-5" range
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2022 11:38:25 GMT -6
The St. Louis metro area was under Wind Chill Warnings back on Jan. 29-30, 2019 for wind chills in the -20 to -30°F range. Lambert got down to -6°F as a low on the morning of the 30th with the high only being 8°F. Wasn't that the one that was super hyped up for quite a while, but really only ended up being about a day and a half of cold? I believe Lake Michigan looked like a cauldron during that too. Yes, January 30, 2019. Lake Michigan cauldron video from my old apartment: youtube.com/shorts/g5srMMA0-bw?feature=share |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 21, 2022 11:39:25 GMT -6
Isnt there a thing when it gets cold where ppl like to throw boiling water in the air to make falling snow? I seem to recall in past cold waves a thing like that. Im not advising of that though. Lol Saw a video of someone in central Alaska do something similar with Ramen noodles. Was able to freeze it lifting the noodles out of the bowl, fork in place. |
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Post by weatherman222 on Dec 21, 2022 11:41:08 GMT -6
All but the EPS are in and while there are the usual small adjustments within each model and each run... everything is supporting our current forecast. I don't see any need for changes... across the viewing area... the range will be 2-5 inches... metro STL... 2-4. The message must still be not to focus on the low snowfall totals... focus on the impact of the snow, cold and wind. I'm getting am worried down(Farmington/Fredericktown) here; people are focusing on the snowfall and not the cold and windchills. I got an "ehhh.... nothing to worry about" from a co-worker yesterday but he's never seen temperature/wind chills like these. I agree Bruce, I'm pretty worried many will still be "surprised". I think despite the unified messaging from the media and NWS many folks just lack basic weather literacy and comprehension. I guess back to day 4 of trying to get heat tapes to work on these homes. I've notified all my tenants that trouble is on the horizon. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 11:41:48 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 21, 2022 12:02:13 GMT -6
Seems like the warm up today is slower than forecast and models have tended a bit cooler ahead of the front...might help with initial accumulation of snow as the front comes through tomorrow morning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2022 12:15:19 GMT -6
12z euro is dreadful
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Post by landscaper on Dec 21, 2022 12:16:04 GMT -6
Definitely quite but not much has changed in 3 days
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Post by let it snow11 on Dec 21, 2022 12:16:58 GMT -6
Seems like the warm up today is slower than forecast and models have tended a bit cooler ahead of the front...might help with initial accumulation of snow as the front comes through tomorrow morning. Agreed. I'm in the plumbing trade now and we are doing a ground rough today. I was thinking today would be similar to yesterday with sunshine and relatively nice. Not so, my feet are freezing. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 21, 2022 12:23:43 GMT -6
Yikes it’s going be a huge let down if we only get an inch or so
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 21, 2022 12:29:51 GMT -6
Steady as she goes. And wow the gem and rgem are consistent
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2022 12:34:43 GMT -6
Surprisingly good news from the 15z sref plumes.
Big jump up in the mean QPF.
9z was 0.16.
15z is all the way up to 0.27.
I can’t see if there is just a rogue member throwing the mean way off, but interesting regardless.
It’s been quiet because there hasn’t been any real false hope since Sunday night.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 21, 2022 13:11:34 GMT -6
Most Models still have a nice little clipper on Monday morning in the area bringing 1-2” that would be great
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 13:20:21 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 21, 2022 13:20:23 GMT -6
If im looking at it right, .16 was at 09 and .27 at 15, right? a step up i suppose. More assurance that we will probably fall in the 2 to 4 range, imo.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 13:24:07 GMT -6
Interesting that the increase does not show up on the maps on Pivotal wx. I need to dig into how they are computing their SREF snowfall means.
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Post by thechaser on Dec 21, 2022 13:25:02 GMT -6
Was about to post the 15z SREF too lol. Interesting
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 13:35:41 GMT -6
I don't think anyone has brought this up yet, but we will have the somewhat unusual experience of snowfalling during the day! I feel like the snow seems to always come at night in recent years.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2022 13:36:16 GMT -6
pivotals snow depth map has more than the total snow map does. Weird
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 21, 2022 13:37:15 GMT -6
I think the difference may be that Pivotal Weather pulls in the model output snow depth product (grib parameter SNOD) while the SPC uses one of the methods in Boone & Etchevers 2001. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 21, 2022 13:37:55 GMT -6
I don't think anyone has brought this up yet, but we will have the somewhat unusual experience of snowfalling during the day! I feel like the snow seems to always come at night in recent years. Yes absolutely right! Daytime snow that sticks is a bonus around here it seems |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 21, 2022 13:45:35 GMT -6
I hope it isn't a one and done event for the winter like 2014. Though if that is the case, then I won't complain if it warms up into the 60s and 70sxthe rest of the winter.
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Post by TK on Dec 21, 2022 13:50:17 GMT -6
Chris - Curious what your schedule is for the next 24-48 hours? Stormrunner?
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 21, 2022 13:59:51 GMT -6
In any case SREF mean QPF is 0.24".
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Dec 21, 2022 14:00:44 GMT -6
I don't think anyone has brought this up yet, but we will have the somewhat unusual experience of snowfalling during the day! I feel like the snow seems to always come at night in recent years. 2018 or 2019, the storm that shutdown i-44 |
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