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Post by jeepers on Dec 21, 2022 17:50:11 GMT -6
Happy that a) I'm in town to see this and b) no one has to go anywhere. The whole fam damily is here, and we're stocked, ready for the show.
31 degrees
86% RH
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 21, 2022 17:57:35 GMT -6
I should mention that the 18Z NBM also says the over-under is 2.2". I'm not sure why its probabilistic products don't match the deterministic products. Anyway, it's 50% confidence interval is 1.4" to 2.5". It gives us a 10% chance or 2.9" or greater.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 21, 2022 18:02:14 GMT -6
Here is the official NWS box and whiskers forecasts for key cities in the area.  |
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Post by TK on Dec 21, 2022 18:21:26 GMT -6
East Coast - NO CHRISTMAS SNOWSTORM - LOVE IT! Too bad - so sad -
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 21, 2022 18:24:34 GMT -6
It is so quiet in here, you might not even know we were under a Winter Storm Warning... maybe it'll liven up when the models come out..
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 21, 2022 18:30:19 GMT -6
It is so quiet in here, you might not even know we were under a Winter Storm Warning... maybe it'll liven up when the models come out.. Maybe people are out eating dinner and getting ready. At this point is there really anything left? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2022 18:30:42 GMT -6
21z sref has snow depth of 4.1, mean snow of 2.2 and qpf of .3. lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2022 18:32:10 GMT -6
It is so quiet in here, you might not even know we were under a Winter Storm Warning... maybe it'll liven up when the models come out.. Not much to say that already hasn't been said.
Almost takes some of the fun out of it when all the models are in such good agreement
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 21, 2022 18:33:33 GMT -6
It is so quiet in here, you might not even know we were under a Winter Storm Warning... maybe it'll liven up when the models come out.. Maybe people are out eating dinner and getting ready. At this point is there really anything left? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2022 18:35:36 GMT -6
21z sref has snow depth of 4.1, mean snow of 2.2 and qpf of .3. lol How in the world are they getting a mean snow of 2.2" from .3" of QPF lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2022 18:38:17 GMT -6
21z sref has snow depth of 4.1, mean snow of 2.2 and qpf of .3. lol How in the world are they getting a mean snow of 2.2" from .3" of QPF lol The mean probably excludes outliers and the snow depth product probably doesn’t. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 21, 2022 18:49:14 GMT -6
How did the 18z Euro look any better than 12z?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 21, 2022 18:50:32 GMT -6
18Z NBM is still stingy on the snowfall. I don't how it is getting 1.7" of snow out of 0.15" of QPF. Assuming we get at least 0.15" of liquid that has to be good for 2"+ of snow with this setup. 21Z SREF should be available shortly. Let's see if holds firm with 0.25" of QPF. Nws backed off a half to an inch. St Clair county ema mentioned it in their fb post. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2022 18:55:26 GMT -6
How did the 18z Euro look any better than 12z? It was slightly juicer, especially across the SE counties. |
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Post by dragons7stegen on Dec 21, 2022 19:00:16 GMT -6
Can you post what it shows for the southerners?
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 21, 2022 19:04:29 GMT -6
The NWS for my area went from 2-4 in to 1-3 in
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2022 19:35:42 GMT -6
the sref plumes still has 6.7..weird
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 21, 2022 19:46:27 GMT -6
00z models are starting. 🤞 for some surprises.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 21, 2022 19:56:26 GMT -6
6.7" from 0.27 is 25-to-1. There's no way. Pivotal Weather says the positive snow depth change is 4.5". That would be 17-to-1 which sounds reasonable. I think Chris' 2-4" is good call.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 21, 2022 19:57:32 GMT -6
NAM is looking better
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 21, 2022 20:08:17 GMT -6
Nam is a solid 3-4 inches for everyone…. Current forecast is spot on
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mmkjmg
Weather Weenie
Posts: 21 
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Post by mmkjmg on Dec 21, 2022 20:09:02 GMT -6
Made it North Liberty, Iowa. Didn’t hit snow uNtil Iowa City. Roads and parking lots covered quickly. I have a picture but don’t see an option to post?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 21, 2022 21:02:14 GMT -6
Everything rolling in so far supports 2-4.
I need to get some rest... going to be a long couple of days in the cold.
From what I can see... steady as she goes are the words of the evening again!
RGEM looks great
NAM is improved
SFREF QPF 0.25 to 0.30.... at 1:15 ratio... that's about 3-4 inches
HV3 is 0.20 to 0.25... around 3 to 3.5
WRF/NSSL 0.20 to 0.25.... around 3 to 3.5
2" to 4" continues to be the way to go for most... some 5" totals are possible in my previously identified 3-5 range...but even there... most are 3-4
That's all for now!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 21, 2022 21:20:03 GMT -6
The nam is more amplified and neutrally tilted between the energy and trough tomorrow at H5.
And SHAZAM... It's output is much better. It kinda pops that longer precip shield for SEMO and SWIL.
A little more amplified as that vorticity flies through the base of the to trough and St. Gen to Hecker/Randolf/southern 1/2 of Monroe counties.. That area could see an additional 1-2" of dust. Belleville area an extra inch.
So like a 4-6" band very close to where the surprise early November snow fell. A little South of that.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 21, 2022 21:21:27 GMT -6
Hires nam is close to perfect. Over .25" qpf. And there is room for improvement. Either way that would drop 3-5" metro wide.  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 21, 2022 21:38:27 GMT -6
I dont think we are getting 20:1 ratios for the whole storm.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 21, 2022 21:47:35 GMT -6
The 00Z GFS looks really good.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2022 21:50:53 GMT -6
Model runs tonight looking favorable
Always like to see models uptrending leading up to the event
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 21, 2022 21:57:06 GMT -6
0Z NBM 50th percentile is 2.2". The 50% confidence interval is 1.4-2.7".
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Post by landscaper on Dec 21, 2022 22:01:59 GMT -6
Models are looking good for the night, we just finished pre treating all our sites. Most larger snow removal companies were all out pretreating lots this evening. Majority of the roads have been sprayed with salt brine that should help a little bit tomorrow.
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