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Post by amstilost on Jan 21, 2023 1:34:46 GMT -6
It looks weird to see the system weaken at 500mb but continuing to strengthen at 700 and 850mb. Euro shows the 700mb low over STL at 6am Wed. morn while the 850 low is over west TN at the same time. Pretty sure those are both good spots for us, IF my memory is correct.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2023 4:26:40 GMT -6
00/06z models continue to look excellent with good agreement and fairly tight clustering of key features. Maybe a subtle shift S but still a very favorable track for the Metro and leaves wiggle room for N wobble. A significant winter storm is looking likely at this point for most of the region with 6"+ possible.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 21, 2023 7:49:36 GMT -6
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, plus it's in the fantasy range at this point and as we say, one storm at a time...BUT anyone else notice the Fri 12Z Euro has major storm for the area next Sunday night into Monday? The total snowfall map at hour 240 is a thing of beauty, 2nd storm favors and fills in the northern side of the area.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2023 8:04:26 GMT -6
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, plus it's in the fantasy range at this point and as we say, one storm at a time...BUT anyone else notice the Fri 12Z Euro has major storm for the area next Sunday night into Monday? The total snowfall map at hour 240 is a thing of beauty, 2nd storm favors and fills in the northern side of the area. Been strong hints of an overrunning system on the models towards next weekend. Still concerned about the ice potential. |
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 21, 2023 8:07:06 GMT -6
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, plus it's in the fantasy range at this point and as we say, one storm at a time...BUT anyone else notice the Fri 12Z Euro has major storm for the area next Sunday night into Monday? The total snowfall map at hour 240 is a thing of beauty, 2nd storm favors and fills in the northern side of the area. Been strong hints of an overrunning system on the models towards next weekend. Still concerned about the ice potential. We are overdue. I just don't ever want to have to go through anything like 11/30-12/1/2006 again. Tree branches and power lines down all over the place and we were without power for a week in Edwardsville. I remember wearing a heavy jacket indoors and cooking with and warming my hands over Sterno cans. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Jan 21, 2023 8:17:45 GMT -6
Has the Tuesday system been sampled yet ?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 8:36:10 GMT -6
Won't be sampled till Monday probably
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 8:49:30 GMT -6
We definitely don’t want any more southern shifts today, hopefully a a small shift north would be nice
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 21, 2023 8:56:57 GMT -6
Has the Tuesday system been sampled yet ? Still about 2500-3000 miles away yet |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 9:14:46 GMT -6
The overnight Canadian didnt make it to Pivotal, but it is on TT and it looks solid.
Of particular interest is the nearly ideal track of the 500 vort, sfc low, 850 and 700mb centers. I expect as we get closer, there will be a sharper gradient on the northwest flank of the storm.
Everything continues to suggest a decent winter storm Tue night into Wednesday.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2023 9:33:32 GMT -6
The overnight Canadian didnt make it to Pivotal, but it is on TT and it looks solid. Of particular interest is the nearly ideal track of the 500 vort, sfc low, 850 and 700mb centers. I expect as we get closer, there will be a sharper gradient on the northwest flank of the storm. Everything continues to suggest a decent winter storm Tue night into Wednesday. Didn't load on Accu either. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 9:50:48 GMT -6
Has the Tuesday system been sampled yet ? The energy is coming onshore today near Seattle
I'd imagine by tomorrows 12z runs it should be pretty well sampled
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 10:00:30 GMT -6
GFS is south again, definitely a big shift south in the last 24 hours on all the models
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 10:01:45 GMT -6
Keep going south. Who wants snow anyway
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 10:04:46 GMT -6
Its not so much it's going south, it's more about the energy opening up and getting sheared out quicker. A lot of the models have the 500mb low opening up in TX and never closing off again. The last several GFS runs tell the story  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 10:07:19 GMT -6
GEM on black a d white charts is south again as well, not nearly as much snow .
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 10:07:38 GMT -6
Not so fast....
GFS QPF in warm air advection wing ahead of the 500mb low remains south...true...but it does not match with the typically favored zone which is where the 500mb curvature transitions from cyclonic to anticyclonic. That transition is further north. In addition, to 500mb low and vort, 700mb, 850mb and sfc low positions...are all at benchmark positiins that all favor the second phase of the storm (deformation and trowal) being more north/northwest from the modeled QPF. As modeled, the GYB method suggest that heavy snow band should align more closely to I-44 in MO up into metro STL. Adjusting the QPF to the modeled features, this looks like a nearly perfect run. Of course... it's just the model.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 10:16:36 GMT -6
Yeah gem kinda sucks. We knew this weekend the models would pull there BS. Lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 10:22:45 GMT -6
Thanks for that information Chris
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 10:33:57 GMT -6
Thanks for that information Chris Now, if the model misses the mark with the locations of the key features...then we are out of luck lol. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2023 10:36:59 GMT -6
GFS drops .3 to 1.0 QPF NW TO SE in CWA from the defo band.
IMO, this is a classic STL snowstorm. Reminds me of one we had, I THINK, December 15th, 2007/2008 area. Two waves. Break in between and then heavy 4-8” on back end.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 10:37:07 GMT -6
Seasonal trend of weaker and southeast is alive and well.
Massive cold dome building in Canada next week.
Watch out for that.
Edit: Cold rivaling Christmas Eve by February 1st on the gfs.
-25 F making it close to the northeast metro.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 10:46:18 GMT -6
There still looks like a handful of GEFS members that are amped up (almost too amped up) So I don't think this is an abandon ship moment yet Like Chris and others have said, the key features are right in our wheelhouse We just have to hope this thing doesn't get shredded to hell as it ejects  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2023 10:46:27 GMT -6
GFS drops .3 to 1.0 QPF NW TO SE in CWA from the defo band. IMO, this is a classic STL snowstorm. Reminds me of one we had, I THINK, December 15th, 2007/2008 area. Two waves. Break in between and then heavy 4-8” on back end. Yeah, that one dropped 8" of cement IMBY. The prettiest snowfall I have seen to this day.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 10:47:27 GMT -6
Seasonal trend of weaker and southeast is alive and well. Massive cold dome building in Canada next week. Watch out for that. Edit: Cold rivaling Christmas Eve by February 1st on the gfs. -25 F making it close to the northeast metro. The level of cold in Siberia is off the charts right now.
If we get cross polar flow going, watch out
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2023 10:50:15 GMT -6
There still looks like a handful of GEFS members that are amped up (almost too amped up) So I don't think this is an abandon ship moment yet Like Chris and others have said, the key features are right in our wheelhouse We just have to hope this thing doesn't get shredded to hell as it ejects We don't have a lot of reference points, but it seems like the trend for about 10 years now is for these southern lows to trend SE in this timeframe, only to adjust back NW as it gets closer. This was definitely the case with the Jan 2014 storm. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 10:51:22 GMT -6
Lol we may get 2 inches if the ukmet right. Just sh1t
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 10:51:42 GMT -6
Ukmet stinks as well, 1-3” for the area , the heavy band is over the boot heel. Time will tell, I guess a little snow is better than no snow…
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 10:54:39 GMT -6
Never bet against the Ukmet.
Was the most south/weakest the entire time.
Realistically, the heavy band needs to materialize or the 1-3 inch stuff will just melt as temps are somewhere between 33-36 as the precip shuts down before more cold air gets coaxed down.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 11:03:45 GMT -6
Never bet against the Ukmet. Was the most south/weakest the entire time. The snow band on the UK doesnt make sense to me. It is south of the 850 low track. A lot will hinge on how fast the upper low opens up and begins to shear out. To be clear, I am not expecting huge numbers Tuesday night/Wed. But a respectable system seems reasonable... a solid advisory type event at least. |
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