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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 18, 2024 8:13:48 GMT -6
Today looks like a classic big wind setup with steep low level lapse rates and high bulk shear
DCAPE values look to be over 1000 this afternoon and evening showing good potential for strong downdrafts in storms
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 8:31:37 GMT -6
Chris, I just found a screenshot of 4/2/24 Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Sent it via PM. I didn't find them... but I'm also wondering why you sent them? Did I miss something? Is there a question about them? |
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 18, 2024 9:05:46 GMT -6
Wondering if all these low level clouds will keep things at bay today
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Post by amstilost on Apr 18, 2024 9:14:13 GMT -6
Chris, I just found a screenshot of 4/2/24 Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Sent it via PM. I didn't find them... but I'm also wondering why you sent them? Did I miss something? Is there a question about them? I just remember you saying if anyone had screenshots of that event to send them to you. I had just ran across this pic and tried, unsuccessfully, to send it to you. No biggie. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 9:16:54 GMT -6
Looks like we should see upscale growth with those cells near Sedalia along the remnant outflow this afternoon. Pretty good destabilization underway with the broken overcast along/S of 70.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 9:31:29 GMT -6
I didn't find them... but I'm also wondering why you sent them? Did I miss something? Is there a question about them? I just remember you saying if anyone had screenshots of that event to send them to you. I had just ran across this pic and tried, unsuccessfully, to send it to you. No biggie. Ahhhhhhhhh.... Ok, thank you! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 18, 2024 10:11:12 GMT -6
SPC seems a bit more concerned with the very large hail threat followed by the wind with a hatched 30% for Significant Hail over use, and unhatched 30% for wind along with the 5% probs for tornado. Noon update should be out in within the hour for 16:30 UTC update. Current one is from 12 UTC.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 18, 2024 10:51:49 GMT -6
Looks like the storms may hold off until most of the evening rush hour is over
That’s some good news as I wasn’t looking forward to driving home in hail/wind
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 11:11:21 GMT -6
Looks like the storms may hold off until most of the evening rush hour is over That’s some good news as I wasn’t looking forward to driving home in hail/wind Going to have plenty of time for destabilization with full clearing developing across E/Central MO...today is turning into a tinder box situation quickly. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 11:14:42 GMT -6
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Post by scmhack on Apr 18, 2024 11:45:10 GMT -6
dont like the boundary being right on top of us |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Apr 18, 2024 12:02:05 GMT -6
dont like the boundary being right on top of us apparently neither does the NWS. Watch is up |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 18, 2024 12:08:03 GMT -6
Severe Storm Watch issued
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Post by scmhack on Apr 18, 2024 12:13:00 GMT -6
dont like the boundary being right on top of us apparently neither does the NWS. Watch is up Dont like that either |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 13:08:17 GMT -6
As of 2pm, the NAM is too juicy with TDs near STL... TDs in low 60s whereas NAM has it 67.
Meanwhile, the HRRR is closer...but looks too dry in the Ozarks. So the TD trends point to more instability than HRRR but not as high as HRRR.
Overall, I think that will help keep a lid on the TOR possibilities somewhat...at least until the storms jump off the Ozark Plateau and get near the Mississippi River.
It also favors the damaging wind potential. Especially with steep low level lapse rates and drier sub-cloud layer.
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Post by perryville on Apr 18, 2024 14:08:48 GMT -6
Are these showers popping up over SE Missouri going to play a role in the upcoming storms that are supposed to arrive around 6-8 pm?
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 18, 2024 14:10:09 GMT -6
That thing nearing jeff city may be our bow echo forming for the metro
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 18, 2024 14:14:06 GMT -6
As of 2pm, the NAM is too juicy with TDs near STL... TDs in low 60s whereas NAM has it 67. Meanwhile, the HRRR is closer...but looks too dry in the Ozarks. So the TD trends point to more instability than HRRR but not as high as HRRR. Overall, I think that will help keep a lid on the TOR possibilities somewhat...at least until the storms jump off the Ozark Plateau and get near the Mississippi River. It also favors the damaging wind potential. Especially with steep low level lapse rates and drier sub-cloud layer. My Td at the house is runnin 66/67 with a T of 82.6 |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 14:29:49 GMT -6
Watching the I-70 cooridor closely into metro STL and just south into Jefferson County the next several hours as these storms move into the metro. Violent Tor Parameter is maxed out at 3 in that area... which is not insignificant.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 14:41:20 GMT -6
Surprised the SPC didn't go with a TOR watch given the potential for discrete supercells along a warm front, QLCS tornadoes and wind gusts of 70mph+
Winds are strongly backed here out of the SE with a 65* dewpoint...this is tornado weather
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Apr 18, 2024 14:47:03 GMT -6
Some pretty significant hail pics being posted all over Facebook from the Eldon area.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 18, 2024 14:49:55 GMT -6
Singular cell moving into Saint Clair County and Northern Monroe County in Illinois could be a watcher!
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 18, 2024 15:19:46 GMT -6
KLSX VWP is measuring 0-1km SRH at 214 m2/s2 and 0-1/2km SRH at 152 m2/s2. Those values are rather high and do support tornados so we will have to keep an eye on that as the line approaches the metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 15:32:11 GMT -6
KLSX VWP is measuring 0-1km SRH at 214 m2/s2 and 0-1/2km SRH at 152 m2/s2. Those values are rather high and do support tornados so we will have to keep an eye on that as the line approaches the metro. Guarantee it's higher than that a bit further N along the warm front. Those supercells to the N/NW mean business. |
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Post by grizzlebeard on Apr 18, 2024 15:48:08 GMT -6
I expected this front to be moving faster as it approached the metro. Doesn't seem to be in a hurry to push through. Although it looks like the intensification will be rapid to the east.
Waiting on a kid's ball game to be called off in west county and I think it is going to be one of those deals where we will be sitting in our cars as the rain starts when we get the cancellation!! Ha!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Apr 18, 2024 15:55:03 GMT -6
Storm Chaser Brandon Copic is on a frisky cell above Greenfield IL
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Post by grizzlebeard on Apr 18, 2024 15:56:45 GMT -6
I expected this front to be moving faster as it approached the metro. Doesn't seem to be in a hurry to push through. Although it looks like the intensification will be rapid to the east. Waiting on a kid's ball game to be called off in west county and I think it is going to be one of those deals where we will be sitting in our cars as the rain starts when we get the cancellation!! Ha! And just like that - thunder, lightning and rain here in Chesterfield. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Apr 18, 2024 15:59:04 GMT -6
Tornado on live stream by Brandon Copic
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Post by cardsnweather on Apr 18, 2024 15:59:22 GMT -6
He is on a tornado in Greene County, IL. Wow
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Apr 18, 2024 16:03:36 GMT -6
That is a biggun
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