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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 23, 2024 6:51:10 GMT -6
Sunday will definitely need watching.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on May 23, 2024 7:41:15 GMT -6
Hard to blame Timmer for adults making their own decisions.
He isn’t making them do it. He is simply showing what is possible.
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Post by dschreib on May 23, 2024 7:58:41 GMT -6
I blame the interwebs in general for most reckless, stupid decisions. If it wasn't Timmer, it would be somebody else. He's just been on the leading edge of it for so long. Everybody wants their 5 minutes of fame.
In other news, 0.34" overnight in Marissa, according to Davis Love III on the swing set.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 23, 2024 8:00:19 GMT -6
Hard to blame Timmer for adults making their own decisions. He isn’t making them do it. He is simply showing what is possible. I don’t disagree, but having one of the most influential and popular storm chasers partake in dangerous chasing behavior isn’t a good thing for the chasing community imo. Anyway, the SPC has moved the 30% risk further north for Sunday to include most of the metro now  |
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on May 23, 2024 8:09:10 GMT -6
Hands down the best chaser, but he takes huge risks and is a hype machine. The 4k footage is amazing. He's a weathertainment specialist. The problem is he has driven people to get away too close. He himself gets way too close. Just the other day in Oklahoma he was lucky his team didn’t get rolled over by a strong tornado when the dom had a computer issue and couldn’t drop down. I know the dominator is built to intercept tors but you always have to have an exit strategy in case something like that happens. I would love to go on a chase one day with an experienced chaser but I definitely wouldn't want to join a chaser like Timmer. He has tempted fate way too many times. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on May 23, 2024 8:19:36 GMT -6
I think damaging wind threat is being downplayed for Friday.
I expect a nice bowing line to have widespread 70-80mph winds.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 23, 2024 8:26:01 GMT -6
Anyway, the SPC has moved the 30% risk further north for Sunday to include most of the metro now That is concerning for many reasons. Not the least of which is my wife is driving back home on Sunday. |
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on May 23, 2024 8:32:10 GMT -6
I think damaging wind threat is being downplayed for Friday. I expect a nice bowing line to have widespread 70-80mph winds. Area? St. Louis metro? Trying to get some corn planted and weighing how much ground to work..... |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on May 23, 2024 8:39:25 GMT -6
I think damaging wind threat is being downplayed for Friday. I expect a nice bowing line to have widespread 70-80mph winds. Area? St. Louis metro? Trying to get some corn planted and weighing how much ground to work..... Could be very widespread from southern Missouri to northern Illinois. I think area just northeast of STL is at highest risk (so Illinois side). |
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Post by sgdragons on May 23, 2024 8:41:20 GMT -6
He himself gets way too close. Just the other day in Oklahoma he was lucky his team didn’t get rolled over by a strong tornado when the dom had a computer issue and couldn’t drop down. I know the dominator is built to intercept tors but you always have to have an exit strategy in case something like that happens. I would love to go on a chase one day with an experienced chaser but I definitely wouldn't want to join a chaser like Timmer. He has tempted fate way too many times. I would venture to say most experienced chasers have tempted fate way too many times, he's just the most vocal about it. I'm not his biggest fan, but if I am putting my life in a chaser's hands, I would trust the guy who has seen the most and survived lol. |
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on May 23, 2024 9:16:00 GMT -6
I would love to go on a chase one day with an experienced chaser but I definitely wouldn't want to join a chaser like Timmer. He has tempted fate way too many times. I would venture to say most experienced chasers have tempted fate way too many times, he's just the most vocal about it. I'm not his biggest fan, but if I am putting my life in a chaser's hands, I would trust the guy who has seen the most and survived lol. Good point. Timmer also does have one of the safer chase vehicles as well when it is working properly unlike the other day in Oklahoma. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 23, 2024 9:38:18 GMT -6
Local office doesn't sound too jazzed about Sunday
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Post by Snowman99 on May 23, 2024 9:48:27 GMT -6
well...it's only Thursday. Also if it slows down on the models, it would be very bg..possibly. As of now it's just too quick
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Post by cardsnweather on May 23, 2024 10:09:50 GMT -6
Anytime things are too jazzed up 3-4 days before hand it never plays out. Smart move is go conservative at this point until 24 hours before.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 23, 2024 10:43:04 GMT -6
Postponed a road trip up to Denver IL on Sunday. Don't want to be driving all that way and back with storms and no cell service.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 23, 2024 15:13:35 GMT -6
There's a lot of possible outcomes with Sunday's setup...the current pattern that models show favor a cluster of storms impacting the region during the morning hours with potential for clearing and destabilization dependent on timing. Models show some flavor of an EML building back in and the cold front doesn't pass through until late afternoon/evening so there's potential for another round. But I think the primary sig severe threat will favor the OHV/Great Lakes ahead of the main shortwave/vort max.
Tomorrow does bear some interest with a band of storms possibly impacting the N half or so of the CWA later in the day. Forcing is pretty weak like it was Tuesday so it's questionable how organized those storms get. There's enough potential instability to keep an eye on it though.
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Post by scmhack on May 23, 2024 18:05:48 GMT -6
Yep. I'm calling off my part of the trip to the ozarks with this setup. No way am i dealing with minimal service in an area this prone.
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Post by dschreib on May 23, 2024 18:19:05 GMT -6
Davis Love III on the swing set would like to update his 24hr total to 0.72” in Marissa.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 23, 2024 18:22:38 GMT -6
Another day another massive tornado on the plains
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 23, 2024 18:57:10 GMT -6
Another day another massive tornado on the plains Assuming you're talking about the supercell NE of El Dorado, OK...that thing looks like the tornado turned nearly due north and is barely moving. This is a wild season. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 23, 2024 19:07:37 GMT -6
Another day another massive tornado on the plains Assuming you're talking about the supercell NE of El Dorado, OK...that thing looks like the tornado turned nearly due north and is barely moving. This is a wild season. Correct. The radar evolution of that tornado reminded me a lot of El Reno 2013. I believe DOW6 was on that storm so should get some amazing radar data from that. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 23, 2024 20:30:11 GMT -6
Davis Love III on the swing set would like to update his 24hr total to 0.72” in Marissa. .10 here. I wouldn't have even checked this morning without reading the forum |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 23, 2024 23:53:33 GMT -6
Assuming you're talking about the supercell NE of El Dorado, OK...that thing looks like the tornado turned nearly due north and is barely moving. This is a wild season. Correct. The radar evolution of that tornado reminded me a lot of El Reno 2013. I believe DOW6 was on that storm so should get some amazing radar data from that. And here is some of the data from DOW6 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 24, 2024 6:16:12 GMT -6
Nasty bow headed towards Quad Cities...wow
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 24, 2024 6:22:12 GMT -6
Was just about to say that Brtn.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 24, 2024 6:29:12 GMT -6
Iowa can't get away from this spring. They have been just hammered.
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Post by amstilost on May 24, 2024 6:59:38 GMT -6
I can't get a point forecast in Missouri or Iowa. Is this something with NWS or is it my phone? I just tried to pull up the tornado warnings in Iowa and each one said point forecast not available. And I came down to STL and it did the same thing.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on May 24, 2024 8:05:06 GMT -6
I just checked mine and it was working
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 24, 2024 8:43:38 GMT -6
Both the HRRR and RAP look active this afternoon and evening with several rounds of scattered storms. There's a couple outflow boundaries ahead of the cold front that should act as a trigger with destabilization underway.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 24, 2024 8:51:01 GMT -6
Today could get really messy really quickly!
Not only do we have an outflow and cold front approaching from the west...there is an outflow drifting north out of southeast Missouri this morning. This could really muddy the waters quickly if storms decide to fire up along or behind (on the cold side) of that outflow as it lifts north. It could also make for some interesting storm interactions if/where/when it intersects the approaching outflow from the west. Does it result in locally backed surface winds and temporarily increase SRH and low level spin as the storms initiate on the western outflow? Lots of microscale interactions may end up playing a big role today and give me a big headache... but a good challenge. These could be fun to watch (so long as there is nobody is harmed and property is safe, etc...standard disclaimer of course. Overall, I think the damaging wind is a bigger concern today than anything else. DCAPES are above 1k (1.2k at 18z) when I last checked and with lots of precip loading we could get some solid downburst winds...70+ is possible.
As for Sunday, there could be scenario that plays out that pushes the bigger threat east of our viewing area pretty quickly during the afternoon. It needs to be watched for sure... but much will hinge on how any overnight storms playout Saturday night into Sunday morning.
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