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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 6:56:49 GMT -6
Quite a bit of clearing out just east of I-35
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Post by ajd446 on May 26, 2024 7:03:49 GMT -6
Good News is looks like the SPC is downgrading to marginal risk the rest of the day behind this complex.
So that's great news for all the holiday weekend folks
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Post by Snowman99 on May 26, 2024 7:21:41 GMT -6
Lol. Huge flop for the local area. Couldn't even get anything this morning when it was more likely. Lame.
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Post by ajd446 on May 26, 2024 7:35:28 GMT -6
May of been a flop, but a very nice heavy soaking rain in ST.peters.
1.14 inches.
This is a great flop
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Post by Snowman99 on May 26, 2024 7:38:22 GMT -6
Lol. Do t need the rain anymore.
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on May 26, 2024 7:51:20 GMT -6
Lol. Do t need the rain anymore. Yeah I think we are good with rain for a while. |
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Post by REB on May 26, 2024 7:51:49 GMT -6
Good news to report. 1.) the Davis is working. 2.) I don’t have to water the neighbor’s garden! .36” thus far.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 26, 2024 7:59:02 GMT -6
Lots of flooding in cape. First responders are working some situations. Lots of wind in sikeston, a restaurant lost roof, otherwise power lines and trees down.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 26, 2024 8:05:21 GMT -6
Lol. Huge flop for the local area. Couldn't even get anything this morning when it was more likely. Lame. Don't know about anyone else but hearing about fatalities in Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma this morning I'm glad it was a flop. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 26, 2024 8:07:49 GMT -6
I think SPC was tooooo aggressive with the knife with the outlook for day 1. I am keeping the Level 2 risk back over metro STL.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 26, 2024 8:11:07 GMT -6
I thought they were too aggressive too. Has the look and feel...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 26, 2024 8:47:39 GMT -6
I think SPC was tooooo aggressive with the knife with the outlook for day 1. I am keeping the Level 2 risk back over metro STL. Ya, little surprised the SPC removed the slight from the metro. The ENH I understand, but the atmosphere is recovering rapidly behind this MCS with clear skies across central and western MO. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2024 9:02:36 GMT -6
Hard to find a dewpoint much above 60* across MO...I'm not convinced there will be strong destabilization like CAMs show.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2024 9:46:45 GMT -6
Latest HRRR fires scattered supercells along the retreating outflow across the S counties this afternoon...that looks pretty realistic. Further north, it's questionable whether any storms develop along the cold front. Convergence is forecast to weaken along it into this afternoon with the veered surface winds.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 26, 2024 9:57:23 GMT -6
Dews are in the mid 60s up to about Columbia on mess analysis. Not sure what's gonna happen
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Post by dschreib on May 26, 2024 10:37:40 GMT -6
Temp 68 DP 66 Full sun in Marissa. Agree on the SPC pulling the plug a bit too soon.
Edit: To be fair, they've basically kept the ENH in far southern IL.
Edit^2: To also be fair, this is about as nondescript as it gets:
At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary synoptic low over
southwestern IA, with warm front across western IL behind convective
outflow, and ahead of the outflow from central IL across southern IN
to northeastern KY. The warm front should move slowly northward
across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. The cold front was
drawn from the IA low southwestward to another low between ICT-PNC,
then across western OK and northwest TX. This front will overtake a
dryline today over northwest/west-central TX. By 00Z, the cold
front should extend from a triple-point low near MSN across central
IL, southern MO, southeastern OK, and north-central/central TX. By
12Z, the cold front should reach eastern IN, central KY, and western
TN, becoming quasistationary southwestward over the Arklatex to
central TX. The cold front will be preceded by an MCS outflow
boundary over parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2024 10:53:39 GMT -6
Vis sat shows a couple items of interest...a compact shortwave crossing N MO and a gravity wave from roughly COU to UIN moving SE...that may provide enough lift to get storms going near/S of 70 in the next couple hours. I think the Metro is going to be on the N fringe of these storms...a tough call.
Definitely some destabilization/airmass recovery underway...although I still don't think we will realize 2500j/kg+ like models show.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on May 26, 2024 10:54:06 GMT -6
From the way im sweating out here I'd say storms will fire! ⛈️🌩️🌪️
Boiling Crawfish In This Will Help With Your Weight Loss... 😂
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 26, 2024 10:56:14 GMT -6
I miss the mud bugs. Enjoy deerkiller!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2024 10:57:34 GMT -6
SPC did pull the SLGT risk further NW by about 10 miles, lol
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Post by dschreib on May 26, 2024 11:05:51 GMT -6
SPC did pull the SLGT risk further NW by about 10 miles, lol And they did a little better job with the wording than what was in the 8am update. "The cold front is here...then it'll be here...then it'll move over there." |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 26, 2024 11:08:10 GMT -6
The latest HRRR pops a bunch of supercells in the metro later
Who knows what will happen lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2024 11:12:17 GMT -6
The latest HRRR pops a bunch of supercells in the metro later Who knows what will happen lol This is one of those "wait and see" setups, to a T... |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on May 26, 2024 11:29:25 GMT -6
If the hrrr is correct we will have a very stormy evening
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2024 11:34:48 GMT -6
If the hrrr is correct we will have a very stormy evening Hard to put much trust in it after last night's performance though. The 12z 3k NAM was way out to lunch with storms firing near COU mid-morning. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 26, 2024 11:44:20 GMT -6
The latest HRRR pops a bunch of supercells in the metro later Who knows what will happen lol This is one of those "wait and see" setups, to a T... I agree. One of the worst short term model performances I can remember in terms of timing, location, and intensity. |
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Post by REB on May 26, 2024 12:02:27 GMT -6
It’s nasty outside.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 389 
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Post by twocat on May 26, 2024 12:52:48 GMT -6
From the North St. Pete Davis on the roof, .34 early this morning. Not nearly as much as ajd446! From the noise, I expected more.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on May 26, 2024 12:57:44 GMT -6
There's a line forming parallel Just South Of I-70 KC-COLUMBIA
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 26, 2024 12:57:52 GMT -6
Starting to see some convergence on visible satellite roughly along 70
Looks like the metro will be in play this afternoon
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