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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 19, 2022 14:10:17 GMT -6
GFS back to having the storm in the southern stream and shearing it out while the GEM looks like the GFS/EURO did last night...models continue to be all across the board! Some things never change
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2022 22:15:29 GMT -6
kind of what I was thinking too...cold dry, nw flow dominating from time to time, that relaxes occasionally to bring us warmth from the west periodically, but overall clipper track stays to the north, and southern track too far south. Bad for heating bills, no snowcover to reflect sunlight into the windows. It's shaping up to be miserable cold at times, with no real activity to track during that cold. Very typical for La Nina years, IMO, but the intensity of the cold could be more severe this year. Very hard to get below 0 without snow cover, but this year could prove that it's still possible; or at most, we could have thin layer of crusty icy sleety snow during some of the coldest outbreaks that take us close to 0. Biggest widespread snows in this region may be at the tail end of winter - some of our southerners already got a pretty good storm, so it may be hard to top that. SOI continues to tank. This La Niña is on its way out. Southern jet should be in play.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2022 11:23:15 GMT -6
"if the gfs is right". Are you trying your new stand up material out? Yeah, observational weather humor is a niche category that Seinfeld left untouched. Given the economy, and the loss of all my crypto, I’m turning to my only other option.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2022 10:40:10 GMT -6
If the 12z gfs is right about Thanksgiving/Black Friday, you might only have to take the train up to Chicago.
Produces a “Mini Buffalo” before actually going back to New York and hammering them again.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 16, 2022 21:27:38 GMT -6
I want to be in Buffalo so bad this weekend.
I can’t imagine getting 4 feet of snow in one storm.
Palm Sunday was like 18.5 inches and it was massive.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 16, 2022 10:32:24 GMT -6
12z gfs and ggem look pretty interesting for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
Might be something to keep an eye on.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 15, 2022 12:05:57 GMT -6
Long range pattern is looking uneventful Amazing model agreement
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 15, 2022 10:56:01 GMT -6
Large scale pattern looking pretty mild overall next week into early December with a -PNA developing and the vortex lifting out. If the pattern that's developing this week re-emerges later in the winter...look out. Very impressive blocking pattern across AK and the high latitudes of N America. This would be an absolutely frigid pattern in January or February. All 3 global have something interesting around Thanksgiving. 12z gfs has a big cutoff followed by more cold.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2022 16:16:45 GMT -6
I’ve been sick for the last week too. Last Monday night was as bad as Covid, but tested negative. I have a newborn and he is doing good so better me than him though I assume he will eventually get it unfortunately. I'll be up in downtown Chicago for a conference this weekend. Looks like its gonna be pretty cold. 50 degree lake water will keep things reasonable downtown.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2022 13:42:56 GMT -6
Somebody in that band north of 70 is going to get 6+ inches…probably on the Illinois side.
Fgen bands are back to being mean looking on the models this year.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2022 10:02:45 GMT -6
That's a beaut House Springs. My wife was sick the whole week last week and still trying to recover and now I have it. Haven't been in the woods yet. Some nasty sinus/cough headcold crap. Two people in the family have the same thing (one we caught it from) and they have both tested negative for Covid multiple times so that's good. Maybe late Thursday or most likely Friday morn. I’ve been sick for the last week too. Last Monday night was as bad as Covid, but tested negative. I have a newborn and he is doing good so better me than him though I assume he will eventually get it unfortunately.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2022 9:11:35 GMT -6
Lol, the 6z gfs has a Black Friday blizzard that would put STL over the average annual total snowfall.
Beautiful fantasy storm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2022 16:38:25 GMT -6
Not really. We had two recent winters with Veterans Day snows. The difference this year is the prolonged cold, though. You can thank the polar vortex stretch. See, sometimes it does have material impacts on STL weather.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2022 15:55:08 GMT -6
18z Icon has a nice 3-6 inch band Tuesday morning just north of 70.
Personally, I think anyone south of that band is just getting mood flakes or a light coating.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2022 8:23:33 GMT -6
I am so happy for you all south east, you guys deserve this after all these years of misses down south. I am going to mow the leaves last time today just in case we get snow Tuesday, but I am really not sure what NWS is seeing as all models I see show very minimal snow tuesday. The Ukmet, Euro, and Icon all show a fairly narrow band setting up north of 70 that could drop accumulating snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2022 8:20:23 GMT -6
Short range models did a great job.
Another example that heavy snow and time of day will overcome warm antecedent temperatures!
Congrats to the southern board members. You have all been burned a lot, so this one should be extra special.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 11, 2022 10:14:13 GMT -6
GFS looks pretty dang solid for Tuesday. It's going to be one of those situations where any snow that fall during the overnight/early morning hours will melt during the day But still, snow Swing and a miss on the 12z ggem.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 11, 2022 9:49:56 GMT -6
shovel useage for some next week chris? I was told you said that lol. Maybe if you need to dig a post hole for a fence…
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 11, 2022 9:10:28 GMT -6
Lots of good trends this morning for the southern Missouri board members. A couple hour period of moderate to heavy snow looks possible with a coating to an inch in spots by tomorrow morning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 10, 2022 10:19:47 GMT -6
looks like an overnight monday event. Temps look crappy. Gfs is now south. I wouldn't bet on more than a few flakes mixed with rain. Best chance for anything meaningful now looks like Thursday/Friday next week if it can pull north enough.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2022 16:16:30 GMT -6
18z gfs is pretty much as good as it gets for the setup next week in STL.
Even has the perfect time of day for accumulation.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2022 10:51:57 GMT -6
12z ukmet takes a different approach, but drops several inches of snow across the northern counties at day 5/6 as well.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2022 10:23:11 GMT -6
We would really have something if we could get a full phase from the northern and southern stream.
12z gfs looks like a partial and STL does quite well although the temps are borderline.
Looks like the 12z ggem misses the phase, so pretty uneventful for its run.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2022 10:15:29 GMT -6
12z gfs should get this place jumping.
Nice snowstorm in the day 5-6 range.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2022 7:55:06 GMT -6
I gotta say, I did not see this kind of cold happening this November, especially with the cold snap we had in October. Starting Saturday, we are pretty well locked in to mid to late December-like averages. That little southern impulse may be worth watching, but temps will be borderline. It'll be interesting to see if it just keeps building on itself or washes out the cold, leaving us warm for December. This is certainly a different pattern than we are used to though. Models have been hinting at a PV split which would lead to a potentially cold/active early December followed by a mild pattern for a couple weeks after.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 7, 2022 17:12:12 GMT -6
SOI is absolutely tanking…
Some are saying it more resembles a strong El Niño compared to a La Niña.
Likely to see the southern jet ramp up. Hopefully, it connects with the cold air.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2022 8:58:01 GMT -6
Models come out an hour earlier finally. Definitely getting close to our favorite time of year!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 5, 2022 17:47:07 GMT -6
Just be happy the death ridge of 2025 hasn’t been thrown out yet…
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 5, 2022 16:58:01 GMT -6
Easy with the Winter Stuff? Don't look at the 18Z GFS... It's gangbusters on the 16-17th. Mega Snowstorm! Was just about to post about the “Perfect Storm” it shows lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 5, 2022 9:42:57 GMT -6
12z Icon giving us our first shot at flakes on Friday.
Regardless, should get a good shot of cold.
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