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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 17, 2024 17:59:51 GMT -6
Out of my parents house by eckert's and everything is in bloom. A freeze could be devastating at eckert's
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 17, 2024 15:49:40 GMT -6
they won't they would have done it this morning. I guess they don't think everything is blooming, not just the early stuff. everything. Well we should still be expecting the occasional freeze, it's early.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 15, 2024 12:14:06 GMT -6
My low tech watching !AccuNotWx!.com for pickneyville, IL continues to show sunshine and patchy clouds with a high of 60. The !AccuNotWx! forecasts have been criticized heavily by meteorologists. This is just a for lolz follow the accuracy for a month.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 15, 2024 11:29:32 GMT -6
I dont know why there are ppl who are not believing the large hail reports across warrenton, wright city, ofallon. They say it didnt happen, just peanut size A friend of mine runs a Geotechnical firm out off 70 and Bryan. His truck got demolished with hail.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 15, 2024 11:28:26 GMT -6
The latest 5d GEFS time lagged forecast for cloud coverage is 57% at 4/8 18Z in Cape Girardeau. This is higher than the climatological average. Cycle Forecast Members GEFS -------------------------------------- 2024-03-05 66 21 66 2024-03-06 54 42 51 2024-03-07 50 63 47 2024-03-08 52 84 55 2024-03-09 52 105 51 2024-03-10 49 105 |--46 2024-03-11 52 105 |--55 2024-03-12 57 105 |--63 2024-03-13 58 105 |--58 2024-03-14 57 <--- 105 <--|--56 My low tech watching !AccuNotWx!.com for pickneyville, IL continues to show sunshine and patchy clouds with a high of 60.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 15, 2024 11:26:08 GMT -6
John G., did you have hail? I was at work in Fairview. My wife says no, but Frivs isn't far and had some.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 15, 2024 6:37:27 GMT -6
1.01 in the gauge. Obviously a big hail day with multiple cells producing large destructive hail. Another huge storm for insurance companies. Gotta wonder when hail policies will change Did any tornadoes get confirmed? Wondering that myself. The prime suspect from what I saw was the storm around Maeystown, IL. The warning was eventually tagged as radar confirmed, but when I went back and looked at the radar scans the low CC "hole" signature didn't line up well with reflectivity and velocity signatures. It seemed more indicative of low CC inflow that is typical of supercells, but at the same time suspicious enough that it got a radar confirmed tag. So I wonder what the final verdict there is. Kinda weird that it was showing as observed and a pds on radarscope but no report. There are 2 surveys this morning. One near Brighton but I think that was from the morning. Don't remember where the other is but it wasn't maeystown
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 14, 2024 20:23:05 GMT -6
1.01 in the gauge.
Obviously a big hail day with multiple cells producing large destructive hail. Another huge storm for insurance companies. Gotta wonder when hail policies will change
Did any tornadoes get confirmed?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 14, 2024 16:31:32 GMT -6
Ya now I'm wondering if storms will continue over the STL area. Seems like the earlier storms maybe not have any effect on this batch moving in from Central Missouri Still 70/63 at my house in Belleville.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 14, 2024 15:44:03 GMT -6
Collinsville storm base doesn't look great from Fairview. High base. Pulling a little scud around.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 14, 2024 15:37:08 GMT -6
Large tornado. Valmeyer. Reported
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 14, 2024 12:45:42 GMT -6
Here are the probabilities on the tornado watch That's impressive, but it is a huge watch
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 14, 2024 12:45:06 GMT -6
Bc sirens are activated county wide Which is silly and numbs people to it. If the NWS can use/issue polygonal warnings, why can't counties and municipalities activate sirens in similar fashion? Only activating in areas perhaps 1-2 miles from the edge of the polygon and of course along and inside of it. While those beyond 1-3 miles will not be warned unless the warning polygon chances or spotters/Law Enforcement/Emergency Services sees the tornado changing direction if it's on the ground and relaying to the emergency response coordinator/office in charge of activating sirens. St Clair county is going polygon only with their new system. Countywide and neighboring county soundings are outdated and only cause complacency
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 14, 2024 11:55:38 GMT -6
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 13, 2024 14:56:53 GMT -6
And as soon as I post that we have little hailstones falling out of the sky. I take back the Hallelujah.🤪🤪🤪🤪 Shingles are still pliable probably won't crack. I went through the same situation last summer
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 13, 2024 13:52:12 GMT -6
I'm assuming vil will be impacted by using neighboring domes? Maaaaayybe Paduca Beam heights for my house according to radarscope: Lsx 600 ft Pad 10.5k ft Ilx 12.9k ft
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 13, 2024 13:32:36 GMT -6
I'm assuming vil will be impacted by using neighboring domes?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 13, 2024 10:03:52 GMT -6
Looks like some big time hailer potential out west again around KC into central/northern Missouri. Possible again Thursday night into very early Friday. Wouldn't be surprised to see some baseballs maybe even softballs this evening near KC, and tennis balls to baseballs on Thursday, especially again northwest of St. Louis. Still a shot at some quarters to golfballs here though Thursday night. Thursday the hatched risk is over Arkansas....
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 13, 2024 8:42:45 GMT -6
Wet street and .04 recorded overnight. Interesting.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 12, 2024 17:54:10 GMT -6
First Lawn Mow and mulch of the season under the old belt. Looks like I've got some of the neighbors to get at it too, by seeing me do my work earlier in the day. Now they're at it. I could probably knock down some high spots but I think I'll wait
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 10, 2024 18:02:59 GMT -6
I'm going to start posting the time lagged ensemble cloud cover percentage at 4/08 18Z at Cape Girardeau. The Members column is the number of members that went into the time lagged ensemble. The Avg column is the simple average of GEFS, GEPS, and EPS. GEPS and EPS won't be available until much later. The QWMA column is the 5 day exponential weighted moving average of the Avg column with quadratic weighting. It is the time lagged ensemble value. As of 3/9 the time lagged ensemble shows 52% coverage. That's about the climatological average. Cycle Members GEFS GEPS EPS Avg QWMA ----------------------------------------------- 2024-03-05 21 66 66 66 2024-03-06 42 51 51 54 2024-03-07 63 47 47 50 2024-03-08 84 55 55 52 2024-03-09 105 51 51 52 I'm not going to pretend to know what all that means, but !AccuNotWx! is showing mostly sunny for the last 3 days.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 9, 2024 18:09:35 GMT -6
As someone who has worked outside, weather forecasts are the least trusted thing in the world. Always plan to work and adjust in the morning Thanks, I need to remember the weather service is more about protecting people, which they do a great job of, instead of how it might impact a person that's getting his roof done.🤔🤔🤔🤔 Don't they know who I am??? Yeah, probably not.🤣🤣 Sure looks like the 18z run has some cold air out in the not too distant future. Know how many guys watch the weather and get drunk because it's supposed to rain and then they don't get called off because it's sunny?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 9, 2024 9:38:02 GMT -6
Chris please explain the Mesonet. The Oklahoma mesonet is system of weather stations. Really helps to provide ground truth conditions in the state during severe weather. Makes it easy to see surface features such as temp and wind direction.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 8, 2024 22:39:40 GMT -6
All right I really need some help from some people in here. I just can't seem to get a straight answer from the NWS. I mentioned in here we're getting a roof on today, well it didn't happen. Now they're scheduled for tomorrow which two days ago the rain was supposed to start after 12:00 p.m. When they didn't show today I got on the NWS site to see if the forecast was the same. Now the rain wasn't supposed to start till 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.👍👍🤞🤞 This was maybe 6 hours ago. Now I get on there and it's supposed to start raining by 11:00 a.m. tomorrow.👎👎🤬🤬 How does anyone that works outside or has a business that needs accurate info deal with this? I was told that he will know by 5:00 in the morning if they are coming tomorrow. He's basically going to get up and look out the window and check the forecast. I just thought we had gone way past that with our technology.🤔🤔 Maybe the drought conditions will push it off farther in the day.🤔🤔 Don't mean to sound whiny but I really want to get this done. The shingles have been sitting up on the roof since March 1st. As someone who has worked outside, weather forecasts are the least trusted thing in the world. Always plan to work and adjust in the morning
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 8, 2024 16:21:27 GMT -6
Ended up with a half inch of rain in Arnold Not bad, but still a long way to go to mitigate any drought conditions .64 in Belleville. Drought wins again.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 8, 2024 9:55:45 GMT -6
Friends, Things have been really rough this past week. Your continued prayers are appreciated. Prayers. Reach out if you need anything
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 8, 2024 9:38:16 GMT -6
Nice steady rain for the last 90 minutes or so Finally. Up to a quarter inch. Plants are running 20 days ahead from what I read yesterday. Grass is getting really green and the blackberries are getting leaves
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 7, 2024 23:30:56 GMT -6
This is rather lack luster...
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 6, 2024 17:25:22 GMT -6
The GEFS ensemble is now in range. If you'll remember the 0Z cycle goes out to 840 hours, but it is lagged by almost a day. So right now we only have the 3/5 run available. There's about a 60-65% chance of clouds in the path of totality. It is my understanding that the GFS and GEFS do not simulate eclipses so this will probably result in a high bias in terms of cloud coverage due to the cloud thinning effect the eclipse itself causes. Obviously I question the skill even for a probabilistic ensemble this far out, but at least we can start gathering data and if nothing else do a time-lagged ensemble to get a better feel for the probabilities. I would just look at April cloud cover rates within the region of totality and go with that. I estimate the 840 hour GEFS has a 0.1% skill level. Climo says 45 percent chance of clouds. Not great.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 6, 2024 9:27:14 GMT -6
Heard some guy talking about the warmth and morels. I told him to not jump the gun
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