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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 11:01:36 GMT -6
The green blob of garbage in south county is sleet. Anyone seeing flakes nearby? Coz?
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 10:25:52 GMT -6
Plain ol liquid falling. Freezing drizzle in Arnold. Ditto
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 9:56:35 GMT -6
Sleet still a stone’s throw from Mercy South. For the love of God! (Tommy Boy reference intended).
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 8:31:14 GMT -6
I don't know what everyone along and North of 70 has gotten But if things don't pick up. Folks South of 44/64 might end up with the highest totals I’m not looking for a specific forecast. Just trying to understand - I’m at Tesson/270 in Sunset Hills. Not a flake yet, but all soundings point to it should be snowing. Not sure if BLV has seen any snow yet, but do you think us folks in metro south will see any flakeage in this first round?
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 8:24:52 GMT -6
Update your profile dude! I can see his line at the bottom says Ballwin on my iPad and laptop but it doesn’t show up on my phone. Different platforms I guess. iPhone mobile version I can’t see it. However, if updated on profiles, I can click the name to get location. Moderator super powers?
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 8:17:15 GMT -6
Sleetzilla is just hanging on here in Sunset Hills. Would be nice to see a changeover to snow here.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 8:03:59 GMT -6
The one time I don't mention it lol...Ballwin. Update your profile dude!
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 8:00:29 GMT -6
Finally making some progress changing over to snow! Location?
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 7:56:36 GMT -6
Looks like the snow/mix line is roughly along that blue line I’m just west of that blue line and can confirm it’s still sleet here
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 7:07:24 GMT -6
The 12z hrrr will produce the highest snowfall amounts for downtown STL in the history of the hrrrrr. Now, if it just comes to fruition. Good sir - would you mind posting? I'm in Columbia, IL, curious when things might change over and potential SN amounts. A few very large flakes every now and then. One flaw: it shows snow at initialization in my location. Still sleet. So I think you’ll have to take some % off as ground truth is not being accurately depicted. I don’t live downtown, so I don’t know what is happening there currently.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 0:12:39 GMT -6
Went to SLU as well. Cheers brother Billiken! And yes, during my SLU days, I operated with an hour or less of sleep at times. I need at least 4-5 hours as I creep closer to 40. Tired hits me so much faster lol Got my MA from SLU on very little sleep. Can I be a part of this Billiken lovefest? Only if you can make it sleet / snow faster.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 1, 2022 23:57:16 GMT -6
Predictions on kickover to sleet at Lambert? 02:00?
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Post by mchafin on Feb 1, 2022 23:45:10 GMT -6
He never gets much sleep during events like these. It amazes me how he’s able to function with the little sleep he gets. 🤯 At SLU, I learned to operate on < 5 hours of sleep. Depending on the situation, I still can nearly 24 years later. And you’re right - he doesn’t sleep much at all during winter events yet, still handles on air and social media with grace.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 1, 2022 22:40:05 GMT -6
Has the cold front and progression of the freeze line slllloooowwwweeeddd?
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Post by mchafin on Feb 1, 2022 22:34:32 GMT -6
Possible TSSN in the LOTO region working this way...very impressive radar upstream What you talking about, Willis?
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Post by mchafin on Feb 1, 2022 22:21:56 GMT -6
The fact that 1982 only recieved 13.5" at the airport is crazy. I wonder if that's reliable. My grandparents measured 22"+ in Fairview heights, IL. But the official Belleville amount was 14.8" I think. We had 14-15" in 2014 in Belleville. Yet the impact from the 1982 storm was crazy. I know it was wetter snow but still. I, unfortunately, was not here. Was here from CA to get married on 12/30/81 and was back in CA when this hit. My brother-in-law had a 72 Chevy 4 wheel drive and he was ferrying nurses to Jefferson Memorial Hospital and delivering prescriptions. He said 22-24" fell in Festus. 24” at my parents’ house in Bevo South City.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 1, 2022 21:35:38 GMT -6
Glenn just mentioned a possible 3rd wave late Thursday into Friday morning? Possible. But it was way south and didn’t look like it would be headed for the metro
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Post by mchafin on Feb 1, 2022 20:35:26 GMT -6
“The precipitation itself is all running it's course as expected. The shallow cold layer has made further progress (~20 miles) than expected. Whether that will translates to more snow closer to the metro is still TBD, being dependent on the erosion of the warm layer aloft.”
NWS responding to a question about cold air being earlier than expected.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 1, 2022 9:42:00 GMT -6
Looks like the 1300 line trails the cold front by about 3 IA counties
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Post by mchafin on Jan 31, 2022 21:53:37 GMT -6
Question: Does Fox2 no longer give their own extrapolated forecast accumulation numbers in lieu of showing model output? It seems like I’ve only seen model output the last few years, not forecasted totals. Am I wrong here? I give mine all the time. I do sometime sprinkle in model output to help explain... but usually my snowfall graphics are my forecast... not that of a model. Sadly, I only catch the 9p+ newscasts now
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Post by mchafin on Jan 31, 2022 21:34:32 GMT -6
Question:
Does Fox2 no longer give their own extrapolated forecast accumulation numbers in lieu of showing model output? It seems like I’ve only seen model output the last few years, not forecasted totals. Am I wrong here?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 31, 2022 15:25:37 GMT -6
Ok. I PROMISE to bookmark it this time. Someone posted an exceptionally helpful site that allowed one to track in real time the 540 line. What is that link? Please. And I’m sorry.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 22:18:37 GMT -6
You would think that the dynamics would be able to bust thru the narrow warm wedge a bit sooner than it shows. That warm wedge is what? Less than 1 km deep?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 21:06:09 GMT -6
So the NAM sucks and the board has lost its mind? Just want to make sure I understand the current state
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 19:01:41 GMT -6
I would root for the Blackhawks and Cubs before ever rooting for the Rams. Cruel and unusual punishment I’d always go for the opposing team over: Rams, Cubs, Blackhawks, Astros, RedSox. So if it was Cubs vs RedSox, I’d be forced to not care, which is hard for a baseball fan.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 17:54:06 GMT -6
Who is going to be bold enough in here and admit they are rooting for the Rams? Never.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 15:19:22 GMT -6
1/30 19Z NBM KSTL 10-90% = 0.9" to 19.9" 25-75% = 2.6" to 12.3" 50% = 6.6" S = 7.3" Where does this output come from?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 15:02:42 GMT -6
Someone needs to literally and most importantly, figuratively, lower the temperature around here.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 14:40:03 GMT -6
“Toss the NAM. It’s not in its reliability window.”
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 14:31:12 GMT -6
I just looked at our point forecast and we are just under 10 inches of snow….. what could possibly go wrong lol This early? That's crazy Where you seeing that? Point forecasts from NWS do not say that. TWC is saying 6-10 for STL. That’s the only place I’ve seen numbers for the whole event.
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