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Post by Tilawn on Jan 19, 2019 5:29:41 GMT -6
I'll jump for joy if I get 2-3". I bet that was a tough forecast to go with. There is a very high chance most people don't see any flakes. I don’t anticipate seeing any here. But have to watch for a freeze up as the temp drops if the wind doesn’t dry things off before then
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 19, 2019 5:34:26 GMT -6
The rap keeps coming in better with the vort max. Brings Belleville about 90 mins of pretty good lift. Another 25-30 miles Nw and we're in business
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Post by weatherj on Jan 19, 2019 5:58:42 GMT -6
Will the deformation zone precip be moving SW to NE?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2019 6:09:42 GMT -6
LOL, the radar from St louis is about as dry as it gets. I mean wow. What a sh1tfest.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 19, 2019 6:14:21 GMT -6
**** this.
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Post by jason0101 on Jan 19, 2019 6:23:40 GMT -6
Welp, back to normal hijinx here in STL...from a high potential at major stuff to within 30 hours Lucy punting it. What a joke.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 19, 2019 6:24:34 GMT -6
Will the deformation zone precip be moving SW to NE? Yes. You are probably in a really good spot for 2-4".
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 19, 2019 6:27:36 GMT -6
And just like that..it became a typical St.Louis winter again...btw, chances of snow were at 90% yesterday. Someone at the NWS needs to re-evaluate how this is done. 80%=0..90%=0...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 19, 2019 6:30:05 GMT -6
Will the deformation zone precip be moving SW to NE? Yes. You are probably in a really good spot for 2-4". The vort max is now organizing and about to punch through Arkansas towards the Missouri boothell. There is emerging signals for the deformation zone to ride up 44 until close to Franklin County then develop more Easterly. There is also a signal for frontal forcing along the CCB. You can see on the Springfield, mo radar precipitation left from the intial vort. And the large scale ascent from the vort max now heading this way.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2019 6:33:57 GMT -6
Lol..yep that sounds about right. Good ol' times are back
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 19, 2019 6:37:43 GMT -6
The rap at 09z took a big step towards bringing us back in the game. We wont know until the new 12z runs with fresh sounding data if this trend will go a little further. This is really close now.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 19, 2019 6:38:01 GMT -6
This storm was like watching the valedictorian star athlete prom king get hooked on meth and lose his scholarship to MIT. Saddening really
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 19, 2019 6:42:57 GMT -6
The rap at 09z took a big step towards bringing us back in the game. We wont know until the new 12z runs with fresh sounding data if this trend will go a little further. This is really close now. still need a negative tilt or it’ll be east of here by the time it gets its act together
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2019 6:43:45 GMT -6
Hello neighbors! Its a beautiful day in the neighborhood! 😂
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 19, 2019 6:44:41 GMT -6
Northern stream absolutely dominated this event. Like 80 points, 50 rebounds, 100 assist dominated.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 19, 2019 6:54:49 GMT -6
Strange. 11z HRRR soundings have 5 hours of snow for me (38.25, 89.75). Looks like decent rates, too. Their total accum snowfall map...1".
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 19, 2019 6:56:35 GMT -6
THis is what we affectionately call "shining a turd"
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 19, 2019 6:57:45 GMT -6
Everything is strange. Chris broke out the B word on FB. And it wasn't blizzard.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 19, 2019 6:58:38 GMT -6
THis is what we affectionately call "shining a turd" Some days you eat the bear. Some days the bear eats you.
FWIW, it seemed like Angela had totals tamed down somewhat last night. Scott Connell (sp) was basically saying that there were still too many unanswered questions for him to feel comfortable with the forecast. I think ST was on Ch4--I just can't...
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 19, 2019 6:59:54 GMT -6
No time to chat much... but obviously the track is further south based on the 850/vort tracks...which seem to have been pushed a bit more southeast. Which necessitates the unwelcomed shift south. I think the deformation zone will focus more on Farmington than St. Louis...with 2-4 in the band down south...tapering quickly north from there...with 1" or less for metro STL and points north and west. Atleast Todd Guyfromhecker Marissa Showtime Weatherfan And so on might cash in. We'll see. Not getting hopes up
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Post by REB on Jan 19, 2019 7:02:28 GMT -6
lots of thunder and lighting 30 minutes ago. Sadly had to put my 15 year old Husky down this evening. He loved snow...and was able to get out last weekend for a bit, but he had been suffering and it didn't last long...new his time was close. Maybe just maybe we can pull this out. I’m so sorry. It’s a terrible hurt when you lose a pet.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 19, 2019 7:10:42 GMT -6
lots of thunder and lighting 30 minutes ago. Sadly had to put my 15 year old Husky down this evening. He loved snow...and was able to get out last weekend for a bit, but he had been suffering and it didn't last long...new his time was close. Maybe just maybe we can pull this out. I’m so sorry. It’s a terrible hurt when you lose a pet. I am so sorry that I missed this early. Heart felt thoughts and prayers for youstlweatherguy!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 19, 2019 7:12:12 GMT -6
lots of thunder and lighting 30 minutes ago. Sadly had to put my 15 year old Husky down this evening. He loved snow...and was able to get out last weekend for a bit, but he had been suffering and it didn't last long...new his time was close. Maybe just maybe we can pull this out. I’m so sorry. It’s a terrible hurt when you lose a pet. So sorry for your loss.... they truly become part of your family
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 19, 2019 7:13:59 GMT -6
THis is what we affectionately call "shining a turd" Some days you eat the bear. Some days the bear eats you.
FWIW, it seemed like Angela had totals tamed down somewhat last night. Scott Connell (sp) was basically saying that there were still too many unanswered questions for him to feel comfortable with the forecast. I think ST was on Ch4--I just can't...
I felt as none of the local forecasters were confident with the forecast they put out there. And I completely understand why!! They all mentioned that things can change instantly basically and a lot would depend on where the deformation band would set up and talked about the possible placements of it. But, that was me listening, the normal listener didn’t hear any of that and just looked at the map with the numbers for accumulation and are now going to say it was a bust (which it was technically) and the weather people don’t know their “a@@ from a hole in the ground” and “they have no idea how to predict the weather”. I can pick out 100 people that I know that will say that exact same sentences to me when I see them next time. I do believe it was a very hard storm to forecast and I held tight to my first prediction of 2-5” for my area as well until last night when I thought it was going to be a hit and miss for us.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 19, 2019 7:14:13 GMT -6
Let's polish this turd into 2-4" for my backyard
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 7:15:58 GMT -6
HRRR backs off farther southeast for 12Z run. Forget polishing this thing. Just flush it already. Pun intended.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 19, 2019 7:20:25 GMT -6
BWG..You revel in schadenfreude, don't you?
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 19, 2019 7:23:15 GMT -6
The northern stream defo band is back building on top of me. Just quit already
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Post by dschreib on Jan 19, 2019 7:34:38 GMT -6
The northern stream defo band is back building on top of me. Just quit already I noticed that on radar a little while ago.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 19, 2019 7:50:35 GMT -6
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