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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 21, 2019 4:19:19 GMT -6
at 2.4" for Lambert Where did our snowy February go?
Omaha 17.7 Valley, NE 20.3 Des Moines 22.5 Waterloo, IA 28.1 MSP 31.5 St, Cloud MN 23.5 Eau Claire WI 33.7
There is more to come for these areas too, with a blizzard likely in places this weekend. The numbers in those areas are about equal what they received in Dec and Jan. combined.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 21, 2019 4:48:43 GMT -6
Here's a snippet from the disco out of Los Angeles..yep.
The biggest impact locally will be the extremely low snow levels and likely significant delays and closures of major roads through the mountains tonight and Thursday, including Interstate 5 through the Grapevine and possibly even Highway 14 from Santa Clarita to the Antelope Valley. Some of lower highways could even be impacted at times including Highway 101 through Cuesta Pass in SLO County and Highway 154 through San Marcos Pass in SB County. Interstate 5 likely to be the biggest concern due to the combination of strong northwest flow pushing the moisture up the north facing slopes and very cold temps. Could see 3-6" of snow accumulation at pass level. Thicknesses bottom out at around 526dm which if true could result in snow down to 1000` or even slightly lower.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 21, 2019 4:54:03 GMT -6
Also from LA from yesterday
Snow levels will eventually lowering to between 2000 and 2500 and locally down to 1500 feet on Thursday. Snow amounts are expected to range between 1 to 3 inches for the mountains and foothills above 2500 feet, except local 3 to 6 inch accumulations possible for the eastern San Gabriels. Elevations between 1500 and 2500 feet (including the Antelope Valley, Cuyama Valley, San Luis Obispo Interior Valleys, Santa Monica Mountains, higher valleys of LA/Ventura counties, and coastal foothills) could potentially see a dusting to minor accumulations of snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for all of the mountains, Antelope Valley, Cuyama Valley, and San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys where there will be a higher probability of accumulating snowfall. Major low elevation roadways at risk for snow showers and icy road conditions with this event include Interstate 5 from the Grapevine to Santa Clarita Valley, Highways 14 and 138 through the Antelope Valley and Soledad Canyon, Highway 33 above Ojai, Highway 154 above San Marcos Pass, Highway 166 through Cuyama Valley, and Highways 41, 46, and 58 across interior portions of SLO county.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2019 7:19:11 GMT -6
I’m really curious on rivers this spring with the snow to the north plus our saturated island already lol...plus a heavy spring could mean floods. Well... the Ohio at Paducah is forecsst to crest as a top 10 flood right now and that does not include this weekends rain.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 21, 2019 8:06:55 GMT -6
The SPC issued a day 3 enhanced risk for parts of AR, KY, TN, and MS.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 21, 2019 8:08:40 GMT -6
Also from LA from yesterday Snow levels will eventually lowering to between 2000 and 2500 and locally down to 1500 feet on Thursday. Snow amounts are expected to range between 1 to 3 inches for the mountains and foothills above 2500 feet, except local 3 to 6 inch accumulations possible for the eastern San Gabriels. Elevations between 1500 and 2500 feet (including the Antelope Valley, Cuyama Valley, San Luis Obispo Interior Valleys, Santa Monica Mountains, higher valleys of LA/Ventura counties, and coastal foothills) could potentially see a dusting to minor accumulations of snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for all of the mountains, Antelope Valley, Cuyama Valley, and San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys where there will be a higher probability of accumulating snowfall. Major low elevation roadways at risk for snow showers and icy road conditions with this event include Interstate 5 from the Grapevine to Santa Clarita Valley, Highways 14 and 138 through the Antelope Valley and Soledad Canyon, Highway 33 above Ojai, Highway 154 above San Marcos Pass, Highway 166 through Cuyama Valley, and Highways 41, 46, and 58 across interior portions of SLO county. I watch a railroad webcam near Tehachapi, CA, north of the San Gabriels. It clearly shows the snow levels on the mountains and a couple of times this winter it's dropped down to the valley floor at 3900 feet. This morning I can see a few snowflakes passing the camera but otherwise it's so foggy I can't see ~anything.~
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 21, 2019 8:24:43 GMT -6
I am quite concerned about gradient winds here Saturday night. It's looking fierce.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 21, 2019 10:22:26 GMT -6
Here's a snippet from the disco out of Los Angeles..yep. The biggest impact locally will be the extremely low snow levels and likely significant delays and closures of major roads through the mountains tonight and Thursday, including Interstate 5 through the Grapevine and possibly even Highway 14 from Santa Clarita to the Antelope Valley. Some of lower highways could even be impacted at times including Highway 101 through Cuesta Pass in SLO County and Highway 154 through San Marcos Pass in SB County. Interstate 5 likely to be the biggest concern due to the combination of strong northwest flow pushing the moisture up the north facing slopes and very cold temps. Could see 3-6" of snow accumulation at pass level. Thicknesses bottom out at around 526dm which if true could result in snow down to 1000` or even slightly lower. Back in the 1990s/2000s we forecasted for Frazier Park on I5/ Cajon Pass on I15 for Caltrans and few other sites- seems like we would get snow levels down to 2000-2500' a couple times a winter back then.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 21, 2019 10:22:55 GMT -6
Next Friday appears to be the next time of interest as far as potential winter weather goes.
Hopefully we all cash in for another 4-8 inches over the next couple weeks and then slide right into baseball season.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 21, 2019 10:35:31 GMT -6
If you still want winter... pattern looks good into March
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Post by REB on Feb 21, 2019 10:40:40 GMT -6
If you still want winter... pattern looks good into March I want winter. This mud and slop is awful.
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 21, 2019 10:51:37 GMT -6
Next Friday appears to be the next time of interest as far as potential winter weather goes. Hopefully we all cash in for another 4-8 inches over the next couple weeks and then slide right into baseball season. I am all in on that idea.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 21, 2019 10:56:09 GMT -6
I want a week straight of 50's and sun to dry everything out, followed by one last 5-10"er and then another week of 55 and sunny.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 21, 2019 12:22:46 GMT -6
Certainly looks like we will enter a drier pattern after Saturday's storm. Thank goodness...we are waiting to have a timber harvest on our farm which has been impossible to get started due to the conditions going back to November. Lots of other outside stuff to do as well.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 21, 2019 12:44:07 GMT -6
We may have a high wind warning Saturday night The euro still bombs out
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 21, 2019 12:58:51 GMT -6
Euro looks like it would support severe weather across much of the area Saturday
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 21, 2019 13:10:47 GMT -6
On closer look it seems like it would keep the main severe threat just S and SE of the metro, but it’s close
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 21, 2019 13:31:35 GMT -6
If you still want winter... pattern looks good into March I want winter. This mud and slop is awful. I want drought! I have never seen it so sloppy out.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 21, 2019 13:33:14 GMT -6
Certainly looks like we will enter a drier pattern after Saturday's storm. Thank goodness...we are waiting to have a timber harvest on our farm which has been impossible to get started due to the conditions going back to November. Lots of other outside stuff to do as well. It is almost too hazardous to walk in the woods on any hillside! I have 20 maples tapped, and gathering the sap with partially thawed ground is treacherous. It is a recipe for disaster... or a broken ankle!
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 21, 2019 14:37:31 GMT -6
The Euro still looks favorable for a significant severe weather outbreak this Saturday. I'm not sure how far north the threat could go, but the Euro makes a case for a significant event at least into the Mark Twain Forest. There are multiple moderate and high risk days in the CIPS analog list with this storm. The Euro is pretty aggressive with CAPE especially in AR and could be a bona-fide high-shear/high-CAPE setup down there if that verifies. The NAM and GFS are more stingy with the CAPE especially in MO, but that does not mean there isn't risk. The HSLC parameters even up to the metro are elevated. And remember, we've had killer tornadoes in the metro area with only 100 j/kg of CAPE.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 21, 2019 14:47:49 GMT -6
The Euro still looks favorable for a significant severe weather outbreak this Saturday. I'm not sure how far north the threat could go, but the Euro makes a case for a significant event at least into the Mark Twain Forest. There are multiple moderate and high risk days in the CIPS analog list with this storm. The Euro is pretty aggressive with CAPE especially in AR and could be a bona-fide high-shear/high-CAPE setup down there if that verifies. The NAM and GFS are more stingy with the CAPE especially in MO, but that does not mean there isn't risk. The HSLC parameters even up to the metro are elevated. And remember, we've had killer tornadoes in the metro area with only 100 j/kg of CAPE. With the storm occluding ... models will have a tough time how far north the "true" warm front will make it.
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Feb 21, 2019 15:20:39 GMT -6
I’m really curious on rivers this spring with the snow to the north plus our saturated island already lol...plus a heavy spring could mean floods. Well... the Ohio at Paducah is forecsst to crest as a top 10 flood right now and that does not include this weekends rain. Ask the same thing at least you got someone to answer your question
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 21, 2019 16:33:58 GMT -6
How the NAM looks to me
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Feb 21, 2019 16:58:40 GMT -6
Dave’s spring forecast is out. Winter stays around the first 3 weeks of March.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 21, 2019 17:00:51 GMT -6
GFS is much further north than the NAM. The track of the triple point on the GFS essentially puts I-44 and areas southeast in the area of interest. The warm front is basically draped right along I-70 at 18Z. Instability is still on the low side even for AR so that could be a mitigating factor. And what instability is showing up in MO seems to be elevated. There also doesn't seem to be much dryline activity on the GFS either. The Euro shows a bigger threat than the GFS especially in AR.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 21, 2019 17:01:19 GMT -6
The Euro still looks favorable for a significant severe weather outbreak this Saturday. I'm not sure how far north the threat could go, but the Euro makes a case for a significant event at least into the Mark Twain Forest. There are multiple moderate and high risk days in the CIPS analog list with this storm. The Euro is pretty aggressive with CAPE especially in AR and could be a bona-fide high-shear/high-CAPE setup down there if that verifies. The NAM and GFS are more stingy with the CAPE especially in MO, but that does not mean there isn't risk. The HSLC parameters even up to the metro are elevated. And remember, we've had killer tornadoes in the metro area with only 100 j/kg of CAPE. Any of those analogs cool season outbreaks?
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 325
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Post by bob on Feb 21, 2019 17:03:59 GMT -6
i guess our winter/snow is over?
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 21, 2019 17:06:06 GMT -6
Not according to what I hear, the first 2-3 weeks of March are supposed to be cold! Then spring arrives after that! No turning back hopefully!
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 21, 2019 17:48:25 GMT -6
i guess our winter/snow is over? No, it appears the pattern is aligning a bit better for snow along the I70 corridor.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 21, 2019 17:56:41 GMT -6
Next signal for the possibility of wintry precipitation in the area is a week from now.
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