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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 20, 2019 12:03:04 GMT -6
Which likely explains the .5 on the grill the other day. Rounding due to compaction. Oh my am I tired... I read that as rounding due to COMPETITION...
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 20, 2019 12:36:22 GMT -6
We'll have to keep an eye on the weekend storm for areas along and south of I-44. This is a pretty robust storm system. The dryline will track across the state and approach the area in the late afternoon. There may be some significant rain along the warm front and into the metro area throughout the day as well. The GFS was further north with the system than the NAM and is showing respectable amounts of CAPE by February standards so that's something to keep in mind even for areas of north of I-44. The GFDL's 3km version of the FV3 has discrete cells initiating in eastern OK and tracking through MO and into IL south of I-44. This is after the big push of rain from the warm front earlier in the day. Other areas of interest further from home are in Arkansas where I suspect a QLCS will develop and may be preceded by a lot of warm sector activity. Obviously it's too early to get into specifics but if you're making plans on Saturday then plan on rain and thunderstorms. EPS is decidedly further south and east. GEFS is significantly further west. Op models ICON and GFS are in lockstep. Euro is further east, in line with its ensemble. FV3 is actually in between. I’m hoping for the further south and east solution just so we can get dry slotted sooner.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 20, 2019 12:41:30 GMT -6
Okay, bring on some warmth and sun! I agree, im starting to get the first symptoms of spring fever
The CPC has below normal temps in their 6-10, 8-14, and 3-4 week outlook for the middle of the country so any sustained warmth looks to hold off for a few more weeks
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 20, 2019 12:45:18 GMT -6
Y'all need to will/pray/sacrifice to the voodoo gods and make this Saturday system south. We already have several inches of snow, with nowhere for rain to go. Plus I don't need additional accumulating snow on top of it. Deal? Deal. Mother nature is mad at someone. I do think the rivers could get interesting if all this crap thaws quickly.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 20, 2019 13:35:22 GMT -6
12Z Euro looks very potent on Saturday. Convection is prolific in the warm sector. Like maddog said, it's further south than the GFS, but the warm front does lift all the way past St. Louis on the east side throughout the day. Boy, that area in central Arkansas up into the bootheel of MO looks ripe. We'll have to watch the trends to see how much CAPE can build along the warm front as well. SRH are often higher along the warm front where winds are backed more at the surface.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2019 14:07:25 GMT -6
12Z Euro looks very potent on Saturday. Convection is prolific in the warm sector. Like maddog said, it's further south than the GFS, but the warm front does lift all the way past St. Louis on the east side throughout the day. Boy, that area in central Arkansas up into the bootheel of MO looks ripe. We'll have to watch the trends to see how much CAPE can build along the warm front as well. SRH are often higher along the warm front where winds are backed more at the surface. Yeah, I'm not liking the setup this weekend...if we get some partial clearing and the warm front does lift through we could be in trouble.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 20, 2019 14:34:53 GMT -6
It looks like after this monster storm this weekend, the flow becomes better for us (me) to see some actual snow. The orientation of the current flow just isn’t far enough east to put us in the sweet spot. I’ll take anything over this current pattern.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2019 15:16:44 GMT -6
It looks like after this monster storm this weekend, the flow becomes better for us (me) to see some actual snow. The orientation of the current flow just isn’t far enough east to put us in the sweet spot. I’ll take anything over this current pattern. Agreed...it definitely looks colder as well.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 20, 2019 15:49:38 GMT -6
Well most of the junk from last has melted. The yard. Omg...the yard. Standing water. Mud. Slop. Crap. I mean i do t think ive ever seen it like this, even after a foot of rain in 4 days. Ugh
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Post by jeepers on Feb 20, 2019 16:04:56 GMT -6
I was below freezing during the first part of the morning which was a surprise since I thought that I would wake to melting. I was still 31 degrees at 10:30 am, but within the hour, the sky started to partially clear, and the temp jumped 10 degrees. I still have frozen junk everywhere, it's probably half gone in a patchy fashion, but the backyard is a nightmare. Mud, ponding that is half frozen in the lower area. Dogs run outside and they're ripping the turf as they run, covered with mud. Truly, I'd rather freeze.
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Feb 20, 2019 16:31:32 GMT -6
Well most of the junk from last has melted. The yard. Omg...the yard. Standing water. Mud. Slop. Crap. I mean i do t think ive ever seen it like this, even after a foot of rain in 4 days. Ugh Same just to your west. I have never seen a slop fest like we have here now. And afraid it is gonna get worse before it gets better. We live off a half mile gravel road that dead ends into our place...guess who the road crew is? Good ol' me. Our road is a nightmare at the moment and there is nothing I can do...spreading more rock won't help...cause we'll just push it down into the mud as we drive. Gonna have to wait for dry times and then my tractor and I have a date...or two...or three...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2019 16:32:39 GMT -6
The ground is still frozen under the surface here...the water basically has nowhere to go.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 20, 2019 17:34:39 GMT -6
The ground is still frozen under the surface here...the water basically has nowhere to go. Which should make any rain over the weekend an even bigger slop mess
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 20, 2019 17:58:43 GMT -6
You guys think even without clearing I could see some severe issues down here Saturday? I think it was pretty well cloudy the whole day on February 28th 2017.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2019 18:01:50 GMT -6
You guys think even without clearing I could see some severe issues down here Saturday? I think it was pretty well cloudy the whole day on February 28th 2017. Given the dynamic nature of the system I'd say it's possible. Models don't seem to be too amped about any convection firing in the dry slot but I'm not so sure about that.
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Feb 20, 2019 18:04:36 GMT -6
You think with all this ground moisture that it will continue into spring and cause major flooding?
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 20, 2019 18:14:28 GMT -6
A potential mitigating factor for Saturday is that models are fairly stingy with instability so far. Unfortunately, it really doesn't take much with such an energetic system to produce severe wind and tornadoes. Recall the New Years Eve outbreak a several years ago had very low CAPE.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2019 18:17:50 GMT -6
A potential mitigating factor for Saturday is that models are fairly stingy with instability so far. Unfortunately, it really doesn't take much with such an energetic system to produce severe wind and tornadoes. Recall the New Years Eve outbreak a several years ago had very low CAPE. Yes, and SPC often doesn't forecast high shear/low CAPE setups well IME...although they seem to be on top of this storm so far.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 20, 2019 18:20:09 GMT -6
A potential mitigating factor for Saturday is that models are fairly stingy with instability so far. Unfortunately, it really doesn't take much with such an energetic system to produce severe wind and tornadoes. Recall the New Years Eve outbreak a several years ago had very low CAPE. Yes, and SPC often doesn't forecast high shear/low CAPE setups well IME...although they seem to be on top of this storm so far. Totally agree. In the past they've been overly conservative with HSLC setups, but I think they have the right approach here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2019 18:48:38 GMT -6
A quick glance at the EURO shows 500-750j/kg CAPE(MU) co-located with 50-60kts SW 0-6km shear and 30-40kt 0-1km shear...that's certainly enough for at least a conditional severe threat and possibly significant.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 20, 2019 18:56:35 GMT -6
I’m glad we had one winter storm warning this season!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 20, 2019 19:25:04 GMT -6
Is there a chance this severe threat could come further north into the Metro? Or is that almost completely not going to happen?
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 20, 2019 19:44:21 GMT -6
The Euro has widespread 1500+ j/kg of CAPE in the presence of high bulk shear and low level shear in Arkansas. The hour timestamps show 1000 j/kg pulling well into Missouri with prolific convection breaking out everywhere in the warm sector.
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 20, 2019 20:12:45 GMT -6
Haven't been paying attention. NWS has a 30% chance of snow here Friday morning.Not where I can look at the models. What's up with that?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 20, 2019 21:07:31 GMT -6
This blizzard up north is going to be a beast.
Need a tiny southern jog to get Milwaukee involved.
Would love to finally get to experience one first hand.
Still expect winter to come back hard for at least the first 10 days of March.
My 25 inch prediction at Lambert looks pretty good. I would take the over
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2019 21:31:24 GMT -6
EURO brings down a 1060mb high at D10, so there's that. Looks like an arctic outbreak could be looming around the 1st of the month as the vortex comes to visit again.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 20, 2019 21:40:09 GMT -6
EURO brings down a 1060mb high at D10, so there's that. Looks like an arctic outbreak could be looming around the 1st of the month as the vortex comes to visit again. I have been reading Dr. Cohen talking about low Barents Kara sea ice extent since October and it’s potential to bring the Eastern US cold late in the winter. That may finally be producing some fruit.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 20, 2019 21:42:33 GMT -6
Not the polar vortex again, Brtn!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 20, 2019 21:57:17 GMT -6
3 days out from this big storm and the model spread on the low position is absurd.
It’s not just a Saint Louis thing where the parameters are more difficult.
The headaches extend to just about any weather enthusiast where winter weather is possible.
The implications of storm strength and positioning will have tremendous influence on any possible severe weather this weekend.
I’ll be the first to throw the gfs out.
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Post by ams3389 on Feb 21, 2019 0:21:54 GMT -6
I’m really curious on rivers this spring with the snow to the north plus our saturated island already lol...plus a heavy spring could mean floods.
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