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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:21:33 GMT -6
My early more logical guess is 1 to 1.5" of Rain, .25 to .3" of Glaze, then 1.5 to 2" of sleet with a nice hit of 4 to 8" of snow at the end for effectively 6-10" of 'stuff' on the ground. This is for Belleville, IL. Northwest half will do better then southeast half as usual.
Realize it's still a bit early for numbers, especially this exact but it looks like the most sound guess ATM.
So your predicting 6-10 for Friv? Friv thinks he is singing in the freezing rain/sleet? I'm confused? Just my interpretation looking at the models and data. No means a done deal either way.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:20:51 GMT -6
Well it's a tie game for the 49'ers and Rams 3rd Quarter. Chiefs did lose today (just checked myself) by 3 points @ 24 Chiefs to 27 Bengals
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:18:12 GMT -6
In that case the Bengals.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:17:41 GMT -6
I think it's the 49'ers and Chiefs for 2022 Superbowl with Chiefs winning but it could be close. Not a football fan, just my guess looking the the W/L of all the remaining teams and both of those are really great teams this season. chiefs lost. its bengals when they lose, today? I thought they were still in it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:16:08 GMT -6
I think it's the 49'ers and Chiefs for 2022 Superbowl with Chiefs winning but it could be close. Not a football fan, just my guess looking the the W/L of all the remaining teams and both of those are really great teams this season.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:10:30 GMT -6
My early more logical guess is 1 to 1.5" of Rain, .25 to .3" of Glaze, then 1.5 to 2" of sleet with a nice hit of 4 to 8" of snow at the end for effectively 6-10" of 'stuff' on the ground. This is for Belleville, IL. Northwest half will do better then southeast half as usual.
Realize it's still a bit early for numbers, especially this exact but it looks like the most sound guess ATM.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:07:59 GMT -6
That said the NBM says Ice is the big concern here, basically a Groundhog Day 2011 sleetaggeddon/redux.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:06:52 GMT -6
If you live in: These two cities are 40 miles North North East & 60 MILES NW OF STL Brighton Troy, MO THESE CITIES ARE GONNA GET 8-14" Moscow Mills Jerseyville Hardin Calhoun county (including... swamp lake, NUTWOOD 12 Mile Island Winfield Litchfield Montgomery Gentry City So yeah that's the cities off the top of my head that are in the Goldilocks zone. Then there is: Warrenton WINTERZZZZVILLE OFFALON, mo Saint "EXAGGERATION" PETERS Brussels NORTH SAINT CHUCKY GRAFTON Pier MARQUETTE COON CREEK ROAD ALTON EASTERN ALTON WOOD RIVER(STINKY TOWN) FLORISSANT NORTH CHEATERFELD. THOSE Cities are like gods looking down on the losers in RAINSBURG The folks North of 70 have a winter storm watch level icy event(sleet) coming... They also have the MOST CHERISHED(HEAVY SNOW WARNING) coming... Yeah I am jealous. This sucks Let me guess, arks for Belleville? (Due to Flash Flooding?) lolz.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 15:55:23 GMT -6
Sneaky little upper level disturbance passing through Thursday night into Friday AM could spit out another couple inches, especially along and south of I-70. Just saying.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 14:41:05 GMT -6
The 18Z NBM forecast has the snowfall maxima axis northwest of the metro area. That's a pretty big shift northwest, and weaker on amounts. Here comes the 'reality' check?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 14:39:27 GMT -6
1.5" of plain rain on the NAM, round 2 coming in though at the end. Might fair better if it went farther as it would be less suppressed, so might get more sleet/snow then.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 14:37:12 GMT -6
NAM looks looks terrible. More northerly track, warmer and when temps finally do drop Wave 1 is done.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 14:35:11 GMT -6
NAM coming in considerably warmer at the start...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 12:17:17 GMT -6
12Z GFS bombards us with snow every 3 to 4 days it seems. Unreal. This February could be one to remember...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 22:08:26 GMT -6
GFS a little too south with the 'Deathband' of 2-3" Per Hour snows Thursday AM into Afternoon. South and east of the metro.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 22:04:56 GMT -6
Approaching Midnight Thursday AM. And it looks like its about to go KABOOM!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 22:03:39 GMT -6
Near 2" of QPF by 3PM Wednesday from the metro southeast. Geez. This is gonna be an insane run. Most of the energy still well back still.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 22:00:38 GMT -6
Looks like 3 to 6AM Wednesday to make the flip from rain to freezing rain and sleet, then snow by noon-3PM Wednesday, per the GFS. This is actually a bit faster than the 18 and 12Z runs. Each run has been speeding up the timing by 3 to 6 hours or so.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 14:15:29 GMT -6
18Z NBM is really really nice Pretty decent bump from 12Z which was impressive for the time. Looks like it went up about an inch and a half. Not bad.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 12:32:33 GMT -6
Looks like it's as usual... Steady as she goes for the time being.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 12:31:43 GMT -6
HP is getting too close for my liking. Euro trying to go big for part 2 Wouldn't sneeze at a 4-6" er with quarter to half inch of ice, still borderline warning, and biggest storm of the year to date. HP is a buzz kill from epicnessville however as mentioned.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 12:24:53 GMT -6
Most of Earth is cloudy on my Birthday, only the Tropics are relative cloud free...
The Planet looks angry in general most of February.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 12:20:08 GMT -6
Can ya'll guess what my #1 analogue is after looking at the 12z data rolling in? 82?, 2014? Farther south 06? Now wait, Feb 2011 when we had Sleetageddon?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 12:19:28 GMT -6
12Z EURO now up to the moment when the storm starts.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 12:14:06 GMT -6
Again, hypothetically not an 'actual' forecast that it will.
We can always get screwed. It is St. Louis after all. It's not a done deal till it's actually on the ground.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 12:13:21 GMT -6
They better play that song on Fox 2 in the morning or Power of 2 @ 6AM on the 2nd or 3rd. Bommarito Skyfox can also be flying while it's playing for bonus points (if safe to do so).
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 12:09:28 GMT -6
GFS beyond next week's system still has a few storms in or around our wheelhouse through Valentines Day, if even one or 2 of these produce we could be having snow on the ground through April or at least the start of it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 12:07:10 GMT -6
Some of these models coughing up a meter of snow (32-36"), forget inches, heck even feet. bring out the meter sticks. We're gonna need a refrigerator sized box to measure that in. If it were to verify (very slim chance of that) it would be a St. Louis first in recorded history.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 9:40:22 GMT -6
12-24 hours earlier this would be one helluva birthday storm, but looks to be at it's climax for my mom's on the 3rd.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 9:38:51 GMT -6
Looks like an arctic frontal boundary passage on the evening of the 1st by the looks of things, look for rapidly fall temps Tuesday evening.
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