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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2021 21:36:29 GMT -6
0Z ICON bring the goods areawide for a 2-5" event resulting in a white New Year's Day in 2022.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 23, 2021 14:40:51 GMT -6
Off Topic: If your heading to the grocery store be sure to pack some extra patience and time as 'it's as busy as it gets' according to Google's Live Busyness meter. and then some at every Schnucks location at least in the metro-east and I assume elsewhere and other stores. Look for checkouts wrapping around the store and aisles packed with people.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 22, 2021 13:12:07 GMT -6
Sun is littered with small to medium sunspots with a couple large ones including one roughly Saturn sized minus the rings rotating into view. Sun is gonna be busy for awhile. This could add more fuel to an active early start to Spring with more severe storms followed by an active unstable Summer. The peak of the current solar cycle maybe just about a year away.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 22, 2021 11:23:58 GMT -6
12Z GFS has a 'white New Year's' though!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 22, 2021 11:13:23 GMT -6
Canadian shows a full-on severe weather/possible tornado outbreak New Year's Eve. talk about ringing in the new year in spectacular fashion... Extreme cold follows New Year's Day into the end of the run.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2021 15:19:29 GMT -6
Wind Advisory up almost area wide but the southern phelps and Dent Counties in Missouri. Winds up to 45 to 50 MPH in gusts Wednesday afternoon.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 11, 2021 11:50:30 GMT -6
Guy from WXRISK states the Mayfield, KY was EF4 rated but on the stronger end of. It was close and either way doesn't change the fact that it was a devastating storm that affected a lot of people through populated regions. He doesn't know that. There is absolutely no way that everything was surveyed yet. It'll take days possible. He got way ahead of himself. If this thing isn't Ef5 I'll eat my foot. With country bob's . My guess there its an actual preliminary estimate or was based off drone/aerial footage. A detailed assessment as mentioned will take time and the rating will likely be adjusted in the coming days or weeks.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 11, 2021 11:24:39 GMT -6
Guy from WXRISK states the Mayfield, KY was EF4 rated but on the stronger end of. It was close and either way doesn't change the fact that it was a devastating storm that affected a lot of people through populated regions.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 22:54:26 GMT -6
Front likely plowing through here now. Winds literally just started howling, and wind chimes are a ringing after being still all night.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 22:53:05 GMT -6
Least for most of us save for the eastern Illinois counties its safe to go to bed now.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 22:51:07 GMT -6
Well it will be a December to Remember, but for all the wrong reasons...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 21:41:48 GMT -6
Mayfield, KY likely getting wiped off the map similar or even far worse then Edwardsville. Sadly may be dozens killed down there and hundreds possibly Injured. A very Joplin like event down there for sure.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 21:35:09 GMT -6
Looking at the radar, it appears that the southeastern half of the metro may very will dodge a bullet on this one and not see much not that we need more action. There's been plenty enough elsewhere.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 21:33:34 GMT -6
That's an EF4 or EF5 Signature if that was ever a thing.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 21:13:57 GMT -6
Guess any Amazon Packages that are due to arrive Saturday in the metro-east are going to be delayed a bit. Obviously that is the least of concerns especially if several or more people died in what was likely a vast, fully staffed, and overloaded facility.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 21:06:21 GMT -6
Southeastern half of St. Louis metro missed the first round and with more juice coming in, that doesn't bare well for us with the last band now approaching.
Heck of a nice light show from the Belleville West Schnucks/Skyview Drive-In earlier on though.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 21:04:57 GMT -6
Today/Tonight will look like a 'High Risk' event compared to the moderate that was actually issued but considering the factors involved it was still likely the best course of action.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 21:03:32 GMT -6
The size of the tornado warnings especially the length of them is almost unprecedented. Testament to the rapid forward momentum of the storms themselves.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 21:00:38 GMT -6
Stars out in Belleville, and it feels like it's getting warmer? Strange night.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 15:15:42 GMT -6
Watch includes St. Clair county, Illinois also almost as close to being PDS without actually being a PDS watch.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 14:02:27 GMT -6
18z NAM at 03z tonight in the metro. There's still some uncertainty about convection initiation around here, but no doubt the environment is supportive of all severe weather modes. 7PM hour seems to stick out for me some reason. But anywhere from 6 to 8PM will be our prime time. Maybe because I'm working tonight and my shift ends at 8PM? After all last time there was a tornado warning in March it was during my work shift and we all had to huddle in the back store coolers. Fun stuff likes to happen when I'm at work for some reason.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 14:01:09 GMT -6
1st Meso Discussion Out. Tornado Watch soon metro and points south with a 4-6PM storm initialization time.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 11:05:07 GMT -6
Moderate Risk from SPC latest update, Metro and points south.
Late to the party as there was like a page worth of posts mentioning that last page. Should of looked back.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 21:20:13 GMT -6
FV3 Hi-Res showing some nasty supercells plowing through the metro around dinner time tomorrow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 21:01:17 GMT -6
You can see the higher CWASP values creeping NW with recent runs as well. The red outline is the most recent NAM run with CWASP values > 60% followed by the green, then blue, then orange outline I-44 to I-64 Corridor and points south and east still in this!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 18:30:23 GMT -6
Monthly Temperature Departures from Average Forecasts:
for Clarification-
December: Above to Much Above Average January: Slight Below to Below Normal (especially 2nd half) February: Below to Well Below Normal March: Near Average with a cold start and mild to warm finish
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 18:27:36 GMT -6
There's absolutely no way this month is going to go down as average... When I said 'average' I was referring to my call for a warm December and the average mean of temps for the month being above but maybe not 'historic' which gets passed around a bit on here. Not that temps would 'be average'. In other words the average temps for the month will still be above to well above, but less so then record breaking for the month as a whole.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 17:29:02 GMT -6
I'm seeing a lot of bouncing ball temps in 1st half January, but I have a feeling MLK Day into early March will be our hardcore, pure Winter. Doesn't mean there won't be warmups, but they will quite brief and likely not too out of control. February will be Winter at it's finest with the inverse of this month occurring in March with a cold start with a shot or 2 of snow then a quick warming into Spring before May lets us down again into June with cut-off lows and unsettled weather as well as likely below normal temps but not greatly so.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 17:25:30 GMT -6
Gfs seems to be suggesting we could have a shot at winter the week of Christmas. It’ll be interesting to see if the warmth is able to lock in after our return to winter around Christmas. If so, we are in big trouble. Basically, we are seeing the inverse of what we get during a SSW where there is a 10-14 day mild period and then widespread cold/wintry weather. This time we get 10-14 days of winter followed by an extended period of mild weather unless we can breakout. Everyone still want a slow start to winter? Dave did say A white Christmas this year. If it happens then I'll call this month epic only because I still get my prediction as far as average temps, and we still get our White Christmas maybe even New Year's. in Short everybody wins as there was something for everyone this month.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 14:43:24 GMT -6
RAP is been unimpressed with storms tomorrow as well.
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