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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 2, 2024 17:54:24 GMT -6
Pretty wild...the 12z EC looks almost identical to the current flow at 500mb over the US on D10. I’m getting pretty sick of the feet of snow falling in Wisconsin. Let’s not repeat the storm today at D10 please. I’m ready for summer.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 19, 2024 22:33:00 GMT -6
Pretty special snowstorm showing up for STL on the 00z Ggem by Thursday of next week.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 19, 2024 9:30:51 GMT -6
Extreme fgen band showing up on the rgem and Icon.
Probably have people in Wisconsin see 10-15 inches of snow on Friday and eclipse my season total 😂
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 16, 2024 10:31:00 GMT -6
Monster snowstorm on the 12z gfs March 25th
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 10, 2024 14:23:17 GMT -6
Euro has an unstable warm sector and lots of shear Thursday. It's initiating scattered storms early in the afternoon in MO. GFS on the other hand is further east and faster with the front and isn't generating much in the way of convection. We'll have to see how this plays out, but if the Euro is closer to reality then some severe weather may be in the forecast later this week. Euro is also close to a full blown winter storm after that. Comes together just a hair east of where we need it and turns into an EC bomb
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2024 23:13:54 GMT -6
Ensembles look downright cold later this month with a deep and persistent trof developing across the E US around the 15th with a west-based -NAO and -EPO. I'm still sticking with my thought of a snowstorm the last part (2nd half) of March. 00z gfs goes crazy with snowstorms starting on the 19th. I go to Miami on the 25th, so you can count on something special then. I expect plenty of snow for baseball season in the Upper Midwest.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2024 16:43:20 GMT -6
The GEFS ensemble is now in range. If you'll remember the 0Z cycle goes out to 840 hours, but it is lagged by almost a day. So right now we only have the 3/5 run available. There's about a 60-65% chance of clouds in the path of totality. It is my understanding that the GFS and GEFS do not simulate eclipses so this will probably result in a high bias in terms of cloud coverage due to the cloud thinning effect the eclipse itself causes. Obviously I question the skill even for a probabilistic ensemble this far out, but at least we can start gathering data and if nothing else do a time-lagged ensemble to get a better feel for the probabilities. I would just look at April cloud cover rates within the region of totality and go with that. I estimate the 840 hour GEFS has a 0.1% skill level.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2024 9:16:58 GMT -6
12z nam brings a brief period of very heavy snow to the metro Saturday morning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 3, 2024 17:42:33 GMT -6
Just two more weeks… Sorry I had to In 2 weeks the 18z wants to unload on us 983 low...St.Patty's Weekend whiteout..I know won't happen but it looks 👌. PV is splitting. There is a good chance late March through the 1st half of April feels more like late February. I expect some serious snow in the northeast and upper Midwest to close the season.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 1, 2024 10:07:14 GMT -6
No surprise this winter was very warm. Top 5 warmest around here and the warmest across most of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. When Alaska is cold and snowy, we are in big trouble.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 29, 2024 23:26:37 GMT -6
00z gfs hinting at multiple snow chances through mid March
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2024 19:22:50 GMT -6
So many tornadoes in Northern Illinois
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2024 6:58:04 GMT -6
I am amused seeing the train station platform heavily salted and it being 78 degrees today 😂
Tomorrow looks icy though, so I get it
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 26, 2024 19:00:18 GMT -6
The skeeters are already out. First bites of the season this evening. My problem is allergies. I've had a good last 5 years or so with minimal problems, but man the last couple of days have been brutal for me. Same, mine are awful right now
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2024 14:11:05 GMT -6
I might be able to go from tornado watch to snow squall warning in about 2 hours. It's bringing a pretty strong temp gradient for sure. N/Central IL seems to be the hotspot for the greatest severe threat currently. Moisture return should be a limiting/mitigating factor up this way. Seeing signs of life for winter by the second week of March. Hoping for at least one 4 inch storm this season. I thought last year sucked. This year has been absurdly bad.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2024 13:23:35 GMT -6
There is a lot to hash out still. That's for sure. The threat is there...but it continues to look conditional around here. The GFS/EURO agree that storms will develop late afternoon/evening across mainly IL while the NAM is much slower. I'd say there's considerable tornado potential near the SLP where winds are more backed and convergence is maximized, so this needs to be watched closely. I might be able to go from tornado watch to snow squall warning in about 2 hours.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 20, 2024 22:41:13 GMT -6
I’ll go out on a limb and say mid-late next week brings snow to the region.
First low is going to hit Canada and start to bring the cold air down.
Then, wave number 2 is the crucial part. Does it come out in one piece and cut hard bringing severe weather?
I say no. I think it splits in two with energy digging into the 4 corners like the 00z Icon shows.
Then, the part that doesn’t dig will shear out and occlude preventing much if any severe weather.
Instead, it will bring the cold air even closer.
Then, the energy that dug into the southwest will eject out and become the dominant low with heavy snow.
The end.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 19, 2024 18:34:01 GMT -6
Reed is starting to talk up the potential severe outbreak towards months end...it definitely has "the look". Also seeing a weak signal for secondary development and snow around then. I expect a flatter lead wave with marginal severe in the metro, but we shall see.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2024 21:40:12 GMT -6
I have to say all forecasters were on top of this, afaiac. I personally think too often the public hangs on every. Single. Word in a forecast. Also way too much gets read into whether theres a headline or not. Its almost as if a wsw is a status symbol. The difference between an inch of snow and 4 inches of snow is pretty negligible in terms of precip amts, and theres so many variables that go into impact level. The high feb sun certainly tempered my expectations. Like tk mentioned 4.5 inches here, and im surprised there was a cottleville location at 6.7? It seems to be an outlier although the nws 3 miles to my south had a pretty close measurement (5.7 iirc?) I just realize now that since we dont get much snow, a small amt of snow brings impacts and with the new luxury of wfh, i take advantage of that. Rain forecasts are given in increments of .1 or .25 or larger. Increments for snow amount to .01 or .02 of water. That's a pretty fine line to hit compared to the rain prediction. I don't think the general public understands that. I disagree with this. General snow ratios give 2-3 inches. That is 0.2-0.3 inches of QPF given 10-1 ratios. QPF is less in the winter. It’s not that bad.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2024 19:08:18 GMT -6
The rest of the month and into early March is looking very warm east of the Rockies I'm glad we were able to cash in yesterday with some snow You all have more snow than me this winter. Haven’t had a 4+ inch snow in two winters. Need this SSW to come through for March
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2024 7:37:50 GMT -6
Just some slight differences between the gfs and euro for Friday 😂
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2024 16:40:57 GMT -6
Euro ensembles showing a major SSW for President’s Day.
This is just in time to matter for us, so hopefully we have a record setting March of snow.
If we don’t, it’ll be baseball season so no big deal.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2024 22:43:26 GMT -6
Now that Football is over. Question Do we want the Cardinals to come out hard and fast rack up the wins or build things up. April wins count the same as September… Lots of positive regression with offensive sequencing and bullpen leverage is coming.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2024 21:22:40 GMT -6
This football game is as bad as our weather models Well it got better
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2024 20:05:03 GMT -6
At two different times the euro had this as a sub 980mb monster for northern Illinois lol.
More recently, it was an STL cement mixer multiple runs.
The back and forth and vacillation were pathetic.
I pointed out this being a more difficult pattern like 5 days ago, but this is beyond even what I thought.
Amazing these are the same models that picked the early January blizzard out at 276 hours.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2024 10:58:03 GMT -6
00z UKIE is pretty far S for Monday but has an interesting looking Fgen event setting up towards next weekend along the cA boundary. Seems like models are starting to pick up on the effects of the strat warming event that's unfolding. Winter isn't over yet... Starting to see signs of a PV split as well which would make the first half of March interesting.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2024 9:46:02 GMT -6
Look at the cold dome on the 12z Icon next weekend.
Wow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 9, 2024 13:39:54 GMT -6
Models are cold next weekend.
Even an outside shot at a PV split coming up.
Spring will be delayed.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2024 12:38:14 GMT -6
Looks great. Should be a county or two wide band with temps dropping to 30-32 with 1-2 inch per hour rates for 4-6 hours. If it happens at night, isolated 6+ inch amounts on grassy services is achievable before compaction does its thing. Outside of this band it’ll probably be 32-34 and mood snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2024 8:28:40 GMT -6
Sun is out here for once and 50s today. Feels like summer and as I get older I really do notice a serious boost to energy and mood.
I’ll always root for snow, but there is nothing worse than constant clouds/darkness and cold/dry.
Especially with a toddler.
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