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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 12:22:24 GMT -6
Geez, the 12z is a full bomb cyclone, just a bit too far north for STL. A true historic Midwest blizzard there You get pounded, there. I’ll believe it when I see it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 12:18:19 GMT -6
Geez, the 12z euro is a full bomb cyclone, just a bit too far north for STL.
A true historic Midwest blizzard there
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 11:54:19 GMT -6
It’s mid January and a moderate rain in Chicago 😂 Where do I need to move? Valdez, Alaska. 325in a year on avg I think my ideal would be a place that averages 50 inches a year. Then it happens enough Im never upset about missing it, but not so much that it becomes boring to track.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 11:46:51 GMT -6
It’s mid January and a moderate rain in Chicago 😂
Where do I need to move?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 11:04:59 GMT -6
12z Ukmet shows the other extreme side of the outcome envelope. Extremely amped and north I plotted the low location of the UKMET (red X near Chicago) at hour 84 on top of the GEFS low locations at the same time
UKMET would be an extreme outlier in the GEFS camp
I would prefer something between the 2. They are the 2 ends of the distribution, so it’ll probably meet somewhere in the middle.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 10:48:35 GMT -6
The GEFS continues to look solid for Friday 12z Ukmet shows the other extreme side of the outcome envelope. Extremely amped and north
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 9:15:47 GMT -6
12z rgem has a great track.
Have to extrapolate a frame or 2, but looks like a 2-5 or 3-6 inches with potential periods of blizzard conditions.
A nice run, and actually could be 6+ inches for some parts of the area.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 8:47:41 GMT -6
meh..it had the low in Iowa. It's currently sitting right over us Agreed, it was way west and wrong. The other models, especially the ggem/rgem, were too far southeast. Additionally, the hurricane hunter data makes it a little unfair because the other models didn’t have that for their previous runs they are being judged on.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 8:45:48 GMT -6
12z nam puts too much energy out front in the northern wave preventing the southern low from amplifying in time to generate a robust deformation zone.
Storm doesn’t come together until Indiana
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 6:20:05 GMT -6
6z GFS is a pretty big hit. Definitely further S and weaker than 00z. Which, If we are going to get hit, is probably what we need. Yeah, quite the shift on the 6z gfs and gefs. Looks like some issues resolving how much to put into the northern energy which suppressed the southern energy and actually prevents much if anything on several ensemble members. On the other hand, the 6z euro remains rock solid with a 979mb low in the bootheel.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:50:19 GMT -6
Ukmet also has the Sunday evening storm for those south of 70.
Temps around 0 and 4+ inches of snow modeled on that last storm.
Incredible
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:46:18 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is a record setting low pressure and raging blizzard
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:35:21 GMT -6
Some extreme cold being modeled. High temperature below 0 on MLK would be pretty wild. Extreme pattern The classic fluff 1-3” after the big one. I’ll never forget that week 10 years ago. First week of January 2014. Got the big storm and then 2” a couple days later that was like feathers. Might want to look at the ratios again. A lot more fluff than that on this run anyway
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:26:26 GMT -6
Talk about a classic “Blue Norther” on Sunday night. Doesn’t get any more textbook than that. Some extreme cold being modeled. High temperature below 0 on MLK would be pretty wild. Extreme pattern
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 22:14:50 GMT -6
00z gfs with snow and 0 degree temps Sunday night in STL.
No precip type issues there…
Kuchera method has ratios at 25-1 in the region so adjust your expectations around QPF.
Doesn’t take much at those ratios.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 21:59:18 GMT -6
00z gfs with a violent blizzard for STL Friday
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 15:33:49 GMT -6
18z Icon has a blizzard for those north of 70 on Friday.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 10:21:37 GMT -6
I rode it coach and it was perfectly pleasant. Of course, I’m someone who will fly to Vegas on a Spirit or Frontier flight so our standards might be different. Not at all. I drew the line at flying what looked like a 12-seater prop plane, though. Not completely opposed, but I fear someone at the ticket desk asking me what I weigh so they know how much fuel to put in the plane. I know what you mean! I once had a connecting flight from Philadelphia to Harrisburg on one of those lol. It was like a 22 minute flight and we landed in a field basically.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 10:14:10 GMT -6
12z gfs looks great on MLK day for the entire area.
Southerners could do very well on that one with all the arctic air coming down suppressing things a bit.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 10:12:25 GMT -6
OT question--who here has ridden Amtrak from STL to CHI? Coach seats OK vs business class? Preference for upper or lower level? I rode it coach and it was perfectly pleasant. Of course, I’m someone who will fly to Vegas on a Spirit or Frontier flight so our standards might be different.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 10:07:43 GMT -6
Did gfs also go north? Oh well next system No, it literally shows a blizzard for STL with substantial snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 10:07:19 GMT -6
12z ggem hits the northern and eastern counties hard on Friday.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 10:02:00 GMT -6
12z Icon has basically a perfect track for Friday and hammers the northern and eastern counties. Needs to pull in a little more cold air and would be perfect Bit of a job north, I don't like it. 12z gfs is a true blizzard so there is that
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 9:35:47 GMT -6
12z Icon has basically a perfect track for Friday and hammers the northern and eastern counties.
Needs to pull in a little more cold air and would be perfect
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 9:00:26 GMT -6
NAM has dropped a bit south Looking at the short range models it looks like they struggle with the multiple lows and picking out the dominant one. Huge disparity between the rgem and FV3 or ARW for instance.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 8:05:44 GMT -6
06z ICON is a bruiser for the entire area. In fact, Marissa is ground zero on that run..lol. I do have a feeling this next storm (Friday's) will take a further S track than tomorrow even if it still does end up NW of the benchmark. I like the way you think lol I think you’ll do the best with the potential MLK day storm
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2024 0:22:35 GMT -6
00z euro has a blizzard Friday/Saturday.
I can go to bed now
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2024 23:07:59 GMT -6
What’s the North American non tropical low pressure record? There’s a handful of GEFS members that have pressures near 950mb in the Ottawa Canada area I see a 949mb low in there. That would be a non-coastal record. Being by the Atlantic Ocean is cheating
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2024 22:51:01 GMT -6
00z Ukmet has a 974 mb low on top of STL Friday night.
So, need that to come southeast a bit.
Certainly looking like a Midwest blizzard is brewing though.
00z GEFS looks great though.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2024 22:13:37 GMT -6
00z gfs actually looks a lot like the “Cleveland Super Bomb” just a little bit further west I was literally getting ready to post this. The Cleveland Superbomb got down to 958 mb. The 963 mb that the GFS shows gets awfully close. [b I see a 961 mb reading at hour 138, so close. I’ll bet we see some ensembles go sub 960. 18z EPS had some crazy members too.
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