|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 27, 2020 15:10:06 GMT -6
So much for developing on top of us. I'll sit this one out and take a zero
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 27, 2020 12:34:16 GMT -6
I'm guessing it fires just about on top of us... then lifts north this evening. May see only an hour or two window.
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 27, 2020 12:16:46 GMT -6
Short range models are trying to get some activity going up 44 later today. The CAP looks tough though HRRR seems a bit high with the Tds… not sure we get to 70*
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 27, 2020 8:47:31 GMT -6
I would imagine they will pull the enhanced risk down into the metro
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 26, 2020 20:07:09 GMT -6
Nice temp gradient that low level jet is starting to bump up against.
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 25, 2020 21:15:42 GMT -6
Saturday is looking metro and east for severe from a Wednesday point of view
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 24, 2020 23:02:09 GMT -6
LCL seems a bit to high for anything significant
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 24, 2020 22:42:14 GMT -6
Praying everyone in the corner stays safe... stay positive and enjoy what we now realize is important to us.
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 24, 2020 22:33:34 GMT -6
Wonder if the inversion in the lower 1500ft would keep it a bit elevated. Some hail potential with that though.
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 24, 2020 22:03:49 GMT -6
Saturday especially... 500 divergence is excellent This looks hailish.. hodographs are pretty straight, but Effective shear is strong
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 20, 2020 21:11:37 GMT -6
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 20, 2020 21:06:54 GMT -6
Be nice to go to a place that we don't constantly hear about this. I'll just go back and have a drink and crank the music.
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 18, 2020 20:19:13 GMT -6
A bit capped here late afternoon/evening
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 12, 2020 13:50:45 GMT -6
I still have eight or nine bottles of bourbon in the cabinet. I'll need them after another rout on Wall St today, no hockey (reigning Stanley Cup champs for two years though, baby!!!), maybe no baseball, and wondering if my kid's last HS softball season will somehow get axed. Fun times. Have to wonder what Randolph and Mortimer Duke would do about now.
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 3, 2020 16:47:42 GMT -6
Overall.. outlooks werent too bad. But... it once again proves a point about the major difficiencu of the messaging. How can we have a long track tornado kill 21 people in a SLT/MGNL outlook and yet we have many enhanced, moderates or even high risks that produce less than we saw yesterday. I am by no means pointing fingers or saying there was something done wrong. I have seen nothing to indicate anything less than a stellar performance of the forecasters yesterday. I am just pointing out how severe wx outlooks are too confusing and frequently give a false sense of security...or false sense of skill. Does that make sense??? I am on some great cough medcine right now If it tracked 30 miles further north- likely wouldn’t even be talking about it
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 25, 2020 23:11:56 GMT -6
Thinking all the models need some work
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 24, 2020 20:46:06 GMT -6
3K NAM closes off at 500mb for 4 hours then opens up for 9 hours then closes briefly for 2 hours over IN. I would like to see it stay closed as it passes us then go negative. It "looks" like it really wants to go negative, just needs to stay closed. It’s actually deepening as it moves thru- it’s opening up as the heights fall
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 24, 2020 14:55:15 GMT -6
Both the NAM and EURO are catching onto the redevelopment of the deformation further south across the region. Also, timing has sped up a bit with much of the snow falling during nighttime hours which will help with accumulation given the borderline surface temps. Closer to the upper level jet support
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 24, 2020 14:54:15 GMT -6
Accumulations would be pretty efficient Tuesday night on the NAM with cold mid level temps and surface temps falling to 30* Lapse rates of 7.5-8.0*C thru the DGZ too
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 23, 2020 16:32:51 GMT -6
That jet rounding the trough the NAM shows would certainly support that
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 22, 2020 19:04:58 GMT -6
I’d say the chance of snow here is 50/50 Either it happens or it doesn’t Thanks for attending my TED talk I completely agree- 40%
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 22, 2020 19:00:00 GMT -6
Thank you very little
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 22, 2020 18:53:32 GMT -6
I think if it trends favorably- we have a shot... if it doesn’t it will be unfavorable for us to see anything
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2020 11:27:31 GMT -6
If we can get some room between the jet exiting across the Lakes and the trough trying to develop across the SW like the NAM is hinting... we have a shot. If the jet across the lakes backbuilds like the nearly all the models have been showing- this keeps the SW trough from being able to wrap up and suppresses the system.
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2020 21:50:52 GMT -6
I like 4* at lambert
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2020 10:58:21 GMT -6
Some freezing fog with that
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2020 10:56:36 GMT -6
Ukie has the northern counties getting to -32 tonight lol Here you go... -70*C Tds are off the chart
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2020 10:47:17 GMT -6
Discussion...... What temps do we feel school should be cancelled. I’m amazed at the amount of parents, on social media, commenting that schools should be closed today. I understand everyone’s situation and thoughts are different, but are we becoming too soft? Personally.....I sent mine out early in t-shirts and shorts! 😂 J/K I think Wind Chill Warnings should be the cut off. Let's at least have temps below normal. It was 23 at 630 this morning
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 12, 2020 21:37:59 GMT -6
Snow Where’s that at
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 12, 2020 20:42:51 GMT -6
I remember when I had my first beer
|
|