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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 18, 2024 16:24:10 GMT -6
He is on a tornado in Greene County, IL. Wow En route Thats the exact path my first tornado went back in 11. Finally produced around honey bend. Good luck.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 18, 2024 14:14:06 GMT -6
As of 2pm, the NAM is too juicy with TDs near STL... TDs in low 60s whereas NAM has it 67. Meanwhile, the HRRR is closer...but looks too dry in the Ozarks. So the TD trends point to more instability than HRRR but not as high as HRRR. Overall, I think that will help keep a lid on the TOR possibilities somewhat...at least until the storms jump off the Ozark Plateau and get near the Mississippi River. It also favors the damaging wind potential. Especially with steep low level lapse rates and drier sub-cloud layer. My Td at the house is runnin 66/67 with a T of 82.6
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 16, 2024 11:30:35 GMT -6
Storms starting to look interesting out west. Will go north but are interesting looking Looks like a lot of competition for fuel.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 14, 2024 9:56:57 GMT -6
Hello Wx fans, and greetings from Longboat Key, FL! So I have a Wx related question… The interface between the beach and the surf (surf line?) is usually a fairly straight line. After a few days of high surf, the interface became a sinuous pattern along the beach. (Maybe a wavelength of about 20 ft) After a day of calmer surf, we’re back to a linear interface. Could anyone provide an explanation of how the sine pattern develops? Thanks! Rip currents. Look those up
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 11, 2024 14:05:34 GMT -6
Crazy sharp gradient on the NW fringe with this system...Jersey Co got almost nothing on the west end while the E side got over an inch. Also outside of a band in west belleville, I haven't seen many report over 2 and across town the amounts are much lower.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 11, 2024 7:30:07 GMT -6
2.4 inches at the house.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 10, 2024 16:27:25 GMT -6
Cape Girardeau was expecting 20K, poplar bluff was expecting 40K. I've heard that Cape's forecast busted with only a fraction of that amount (local media suggests hundreds showed up for the main event on the riverfront, pictures support an attendance in the magnitude of hundreds, not thousands as well). I stopped at Pevely after 3 1/2 hours, so I didn't get to see how traffic was south of 67 (where people would have turned off to go to Poplar Bluff). It would be interesting to see the economic impact reports from the eclipse on these small towns. Interesting to note that the media in Cape changed their focus from number of tourists to distance (the local newspaper says there were people from Europe were in town). It's aggravating that the city and county leaves tourism dollars on the table while surrounding towns planned and publicized events. Yes hotels were booked, but in a small town, that really doesn't mean anything because hotels can be booked with a class reunion and another event like a wedding in town. I certainly wasn't going to pay $500 for a hotel night in a town that is worth $100 at best on any other given night. I do not know what the numbers are in Poplar Bluff, but there was a Jeff Foxworthy concert the day before, so that alone would have boosted tourism in that town of 24K. There was no shortage of events and places to go. I can't imagine it not being a economic success region wide
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 8, 2024 17:00:03 GMT -6
Pics from Pyramid State Park. Unforgettable experience. Weather was perfect, traffic was manageable, and the park was beautiful.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 8, 2024 16:52:26 GMT -6
Here is the weather station data from my house in Belleville. Temperature went from 74.8 to 69.3.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 8, 2024 9:51:37 GMT -6
13 is bad from West Belleville. We are sitting between freeburg and new Athens
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 7, 2024 21:14:35 GMT -6
Well, they said tons of people would flood the region. It appears that is true
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 7, 2024 14:33:04 GMT -6
Hi, everyone…hubby and I are still undecided about where to travel to have the best chance to view totality tomorrow. Are any of you planning to meet up? We’re in Bowling Green, MO…willing to go as far as Vincennes, IN. Excited, as 2017 was such a surreal experience! That includes the nightmare traffic afterwards haha. We are planning on heading down rt 13 towards pinckneyville and getting about 3 minutes of totality. Hopefully avoid the traffic
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 5, 2024 17:35:25 GMT -6
You must get into the path of totality. It's like the difference between driving a Ford and a Porsche.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 3, 2024 16:28:55 GMT -6
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 3, 2024 12:43:21 GMT -6
...or I might just take some of the back roads south through the strip pits and around the back side of Sparta down toward Chester to gain another minute or two.
I also have an Acadia that seats 7, and I swear I'm not a serial killer.
Gonna leave early, pack a picnic lunch, grab some bait and hit up pyramid.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 3, 2024 10:45:34 GMT -6
I’m debating between Nashville, IL and Taum Sauk Mountain state Park. Nashville would be nice being right off of 64, but they don’t have much in the way of public places to watch. Taum Sauk would be really cool. It has an overlook at the highest point in MO, but I worry about it being super packed. Where is everyone else headed? I'm avoiding interstates and using IL rt 13 to get into and out of the path. Remember people will trickle in this weekend and flood out on Monday following totality
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 3, 2024 9:51:32 GMT -6
All eyes to Monday now. Cloud cover forecast looks much better now than it did just a few days ago, with the clouds/rain moving even further south and east. Should be an epic event. I cant wait. Heading to Farmington on Saturday for the event. I'm hoping Wisconsin and Chicago travelers choose Indiana over Southern Illinois this time around. In 2017, my 5 1/2 hour trip home took over 10. I had planned to stay until Tuesday this time, but now have to be home for multiple reasons. My oldest is going to ruma, il. They claim to be back in Belleville by 315. I doubt it
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 2, 2024 21:01:05 GMT -6
Did the outage effect the offices or do they have to go through the same server? NWS offices had visualization on the data... but they could not issue warnings. We (and the public as a whole) had no data and did not receive warnings. The NWS posted screen shots in our chatroom of radar and hand drew warning polygons and cute stick figures to show us where the warnings/tornadoes were located. Then, as the system tried to come back up, all the blocked warnings they tried to issue came flying out all at once... so we had a wall of warnings pop-up 50 miles behind the QLCS and about an hour after they had been issued. The radar data would come up and work for a volume scan then go down for 30 minutes. It was very frustrating and very challenging because it was impossible to trust the data we were receiving from radar. I woke up at 220 and it was pouring with hail embedded, but I couldn't see the hail just heard it. Looked at the radar and it looked like the worst was still to come. Got a little panicked, then it calmed down and never ramped back up. Then I realized the radar wasn't updating. Very frustrating as someone who makes informed decisions based on data and not just a new warning product. I can imagine it was very stressful for everyone to be blind in that moment
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 2, 2024 16:20:32 GMT -6
Thank you all! I always know I can count on this group for an assist! Did the outage effect the offices or do they have to go through the same server?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 2, 2024 14:11:45 GMT -6
Do any of you have a screen grab of the radar status page when it was nearly all red last night?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 2, 2024 8:46:57 GMT -6
Forecast for the eclipse is now available on NWS point forecasts. Here's the forecast for my target in So. IL:
A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Southwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 2, 2024 7:56:28 GMT -6
The radar outage was an absolute disaster. I can't stand being blind like that when I'm trying to gauge risk. Couldn't imagine being mobile and chasing and losing radar data in anything HP or QLCS related.
Wonder what caused so many sites to go offline at once?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 1, 2024 18:15:22 GMT -6
Looks like a bit of a hook echo around Hermann Clear hook echo signature. Surprised it's not warned. Velocity scan isn't great....
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 1, 2024 14:02:43 GMT -6
We need to watch the differntial heating boundary near STL between the clouds/clearing. This may become an effective boundary to focus enough convergence to generate a storm. With the warm front moving north, Round 1 in our viewing are may be slow to ramp up. It is interesting that several CAMS are generating a supercell very near the Missouri River that passes over/near STL in a couple of hours. No signs of development yet... but we continue to watch. 78/66 at the house
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 1, 2024 12:36:26 GMT -6
I'm at SAFB and it's been cloudy all day. It's starting to break in Fairview
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 1, 2024 11:06:24 GMT -6
Latest SPC update added a 30% hatched wind risk to the area We are now under a hatched (significant) tornado, wind and hail All that sig risk and Oklahoma gets the moderate for 40 percent hail
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 28, 2024 19:42:07 GMT -6
Looking at today's models, the timing of that trof ejection around the Eclipse is tricky with the -NAO breaking down around then. How quickly that happens, as well as the timing of the trof digging across AK on ~D10 acting as a kicker is still very much in question. If we can get that to eject over the weekend and get some post-frontal bluebird skies, that would be amazing.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 28, 2024 12:56:50 GMT -6
Latest CSU probability outlook showing moderate/hatched risk across much of MO for next Monday. Reed is already posting about this possibly being a tornado outbreak for the area. I haven’t really dug into this setup yet, but it has a good overall look to it. Crazy how the hatched is almost perfectly the Ozark plateau
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 27, 2024 19:38:14 GMT -6
I was thinking, the most epic photo ever would be someone capturing the total solar eclipse in the same scene as a distant mothership supercell (bonus would be a tornado). Plot twist tornado dies because of the eclipse destroying heating and cape
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 27, 2024 14:06:34 GMT -6
I know its still a ways out there but models have been pretty consistent with a large lingering system over the middle of the country on April 8...that would suck. Gonna need that system to move a couple days faster. Then we could be bluebird skies on the majority of the path.
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