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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2023 10:28:47 GMT -6
I still wonder if that convection along the gulf coast “pulled” the system further SE at the last minute. All the short range guidance was looking great, until about 00z when they all shifted SE suddenly. We were really banking on the high precep rates with the initial WAA thump to overpower the borderline surface temps in the metro.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 23:00:57 GMT -6
Ya the GEFS members continue to be much more bullish on precep next week than the operational run
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 19:32:03 GMT -6
18z euro control run is a big ol ice and snowstorm early next week
18z GEFS was highly supportive of that as well
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 16:20:40 GMT -6
I can’t believe I’m sitting here refreshing the 18z gfs for the next 6 days potential. Cure me from this addiction! We need to start a weather addict support group lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 13:48:48 GMT -6
12z EPS means for next week are already concerning looking. No doubt things will shift around in the coming days. But with the degree of arctic air the models having coming down, an ice storm would be really, really bad.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 12:56:43 GMT -6
Did the 500mb low really track that far south?
Models were insistent for several days it would track right up 44
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 12:39:26 GMT -6
That would cause a few issues
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 11:16:09 GMT -6
Certainly a signal for something next week. Cold(at the surface) shouldn’t be in short supply.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 11:03:30 GMT -6
Just glancing at the GEFS members, almost all of them look further north than the operational run for next week. Looks like it may be multiple rounds of precipitation as energy breaks away from the trough out west.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 9:20:33 GMT -6
I’m not sure all the goes into the NBM when it come to ice forecasting, but it’s certainly bullish on potential the next 10 days
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 8:54:21 GMT -6
Melted down all the snow I caught in the Stratus cylinder and got 0.42” of QPF
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 8:36:10 GMT -6
I’m not sure what an “ideal” ice storm setup looks like, but I imagine it looks like what’s being modeled next week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 7:45:46 GMT -6
I think lack of dry air near the surface did in parts of the metro where precep rates struggled. Trying to cool down air by melting alone is very inefficient. We could have used a stiff NE wind feeding some drier air into the system at the surface.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 7:11:32 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 6:37:00 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 6:23:27 GMT -6
I’m eyeballing 2-3” of wet snow in Arnold
Everything is absolutely plastered in snow.
Very pretty looking
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 6:04:05 GMT -6
Alright, I’m officially a NBM truther
It’s looking like it’s going to do very well with this system.
I thought for sure it was to stingy on snow amounts around the area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 1:38:37 GMT -6
That's a crazy strong signal on the EPS for an ice storm next week Something to keep tabs on after this system
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 1:28:18 GMT -6
Still all rain here. I've seen enough of this for tonight... If you want to take your mind off this system, next weeks disappointment is already taking shape. Euro and the EPS are advertising an overrunning ice storm around here
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 0:57:55 GMT -6
Streets are starting to get some snow on them
Still snowing hard. I’m guesstimating a half inch
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 0:35:26 GMT -6
Still 38* here and the Td has risen to 34...not looking too good. Can't wait to spend a week forecasting the next disappointment. Forecasting winter weather is like pulling teeth.
Give me a good severe weather setup over winter any day
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 0:33:28 GMT -6
Moderate snow now, nickels. Coating things fairly quickly since intensity has picked up. I was about to say
I was starting to think I was hallucinating lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2023 0:18:34 GMT -6
It’s pouring snow here now
Things are getting white quickly
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 23:55:47 GMT -6
I found a new t-shirt design
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 23:46:50 GMT -6
Thats one good-looking mesoscale band on KSGF
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 23:17:17 GMT -6
Has Arnold changed over yet? 100% Liquid rain drops by the police station at this time. Edit, the drops are getting "thicker" lol Check again, it's pouring hamsters here now
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 23:11:59 GMT -6
Never under estimate the power of the WAM. Didn't think I'd have to say that with this storm... Also I really thought dry air would be an issue. What was I thinking. Where my t-shirt. I have to go put it on. 🤣 This is playing out very close to modeled.
The metro was always supposed to struggle to changeover until midnight when the better lift moves in
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 23:07:13 GMT -6
Ok now we have some legitimate flakes mixing in
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 23:04:51 GMT -6
Has Arnold changed over yet? Not fully. I would best describe it as a slushy rain
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 22:42:00 GMT -6
Very wet, sloppy flakes mixing in Arnold Literally just checked, singin in the rain by the police station. I'm at 570 feet at my house
I don't know, but a 100 feet elevation difference might literally make a difference lol
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