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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2024 16:15:44 GMT -6
We may see the SPC introduce some risk areas Sunday and potentially Monday, but I think there may be too much uncertainty still in the northern extent of the warm sector/front, the potential for junk convection/showers, and the exact track of the surface low to delineate our specific area.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 26, 2024 15:57:33 GMT -6
May need to keep an eye on the time period around April 1st. Newer deterministic models runs and ensembles are indicating a better chance of being in the warm sector of an approaching trough with sufficient instability and shear for organized convection. If that holds some strong/severe storms may be on the table.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 15, 2024 18:53:30 GMT -6
Looks like 5 tornadoes have been confirmed by our local NWS office. All EF0.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 15, 2024 9:07:43 GMT -6
Local office confirms EF0 in Charlack.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2024 21:16:33 GMT -6
Latest storm report map for today Today may be the most significant hail reports on record, surpassing April 19th last year Hindsight is 20/20 but hail driven moderate risk would have verified over a large area (including Stl). And not trying to be overly critical but a slight risk for our area was too conservative given forecasts of 2000+ j/kg of CAPE, 50+ kts of shear, and multiple runs of multiple CAMs showing supercell development along the left over boundaries of the morning convection...all that with the context of the 2 previous nights producing significant severe reports with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2024 21:07:37 GMT -6
1.01 in the gauge. Obviously a big hail day with multiple cells producing large destructive hail. Another huge storm for insurance companies. Gotta wonder when hail policies will change Did any tornadoes get confirmed? Wondering that myself. The prime suspect from what I saw was the storm around Maeystown, IL. The warning was eventually tagged as radar confirmed, but when I went back and looked at the radar scans the low CC "hole" signature didn't line up well with reflectivity and velocity signatures. It seemed more indicative of low CC inflow that is typical of supercells, but at the same time suspicious enough that it got a radar confirmed tag. So I wonder what the final verdict there is.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2024 15:00:56 GMT -6
Classic discrete supercell entering St. Charles CO. We've haven't seen many of those in the last several years.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 13, 2024 20:04:14 GMT -6
Again the severe weather today is occurring with dewpoints in the mid-50s. Tomorrow dewpoints should be up around 60.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 12, 2024 21:29:46 GMT -6
Quite a few severe reports with a marginal risk and no watches. System seems to be overperforming so far. And that's with dewpoints in the mid to low 50s.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 10, 2024 12:56:46 GMT -6
Euro has an unstable warm sector and lots of shear Thursday. It's initiating scattered storms early in the afternoon in MO. GFS on the other hand is further east and faster with the front and isn't generating much in the way of convection. We'll have to see how this plays out, but if the Euro is closer to reality then some severe weather may be in the forecast later this week.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 29, 2024 17:41:50 GMT -6
Completely off topic... Does anyone know of a good non-chain steakhouse or seafood restaurant near I-70 in the St. Charles, St. Peters, O'Fallon area? Napoli 3 is at I-70 and 5th in St. Charles. It's technically a chain because there's 3 of them in St. Louis but it's a local chain and locally owned. It's higher end with prime and Wagyu steaks. They have a sister restaurant right next door called Napoli Sea with fresh fish (they also offer the same steaks there). I've been to both, they are good but pricey.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 25, 2024 10:17:02 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 22, 2024 23:54:33 GMT -6
That's a real solid rainy deformation on the GFS for Saturday. Can't wait...
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 6, 2024 15:07:20 GMT -6
They must have just added that right? Don't remember seeing it there this morning...nice.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 6, 2024 7:25:21 GMT -6
Measured 2.2" but there is already a good bit of melting going on so I likely had more.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 5, 2024 22:40:40 GMT -6
And if anything remotely close to what the GFS shows next Friday actually pans out while I'm out of town I'm going to be p****d.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 5, 2024 22:38:20 GMT -6
Coming down pretty good in south eastern St. Peters. Didn't measure, but eyeballing about 1" so far.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 5, 2024 22:16:51 GMT -6
GFS surface and 850mb lows are a bit north of where we want them to be but because the system becomes vertically stacked up to 700mb as it moves through our area it puts the 700mb low track very close to our wheelhouse.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 5, 2024 10:36:30 GMT -6
I will be in Florida from the 10th through the 16th so as fate would have it Tuesday will probably be a dud and something epic will happen after while I'm out of town.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 5, 2024 10:15:31 GMT -6
GDPS still very far south with the Tuesday system. Has the 850mb low close to southern AR compared to GFS which is up in central MO.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 4, 2024 10:23:55 GMT -6
I like what I see with the 12z GFS. Just wish it wasn't 5 days out.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 3, 2024 22:49:29 GMT -6
UKMET track looks good, but temperatures are a problem.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 3, 2024 11:06:46 GMT -6
UKMET with it's surface low in in southern MS may be too far south. Would be nice to see the evolution to hour 168 since it appears things want to lift northeast quickly from there. But good to see some of these deterministic model darts hitting the southern part of the potential track envelope.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 3, 2024 11:00:12 GMT -6
UKMET looks good to hour 144 with an 850mb low in SE OK. That is much further south than the GFS.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 1, 2024 17:23:54 GMT -6
Let's just hope one doesn't go too far south and then 2nd storm going way north. Leaving us in the dead zone. That is very possible and would be the expectation. Just consider ourselves lucky if it doesn't.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 31, 2023 12:45:47 GMT -6
Been following the weather, models, and forum but nothing much worth talking about yet this season. Perhaps finally something worth following a little more closely in the coming days for next weekend or beyond.
And sorry to hear about the situation with your mom Snowman. I know words may not help much, but thinking about you anyway.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 5, 2023 14:04:48 GMT -6
If modeling doesn't start to trend back south later today then categorical risk for severe weather on day 4 may be expanded northward tomorrow, perhaps even including our area. As it is so far signs are pointing to a high shear low instability environment in place Saturday as the system moves through. GFS and ECMWF are fairly similar with EHI values over 1 in central to eastern MO in the vicinity of the triple point. The exception being that the ECMWF is stingy with convection whereas the GFS is generating a robust line of storms.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 6, 2023 23:16:11 GMT -6
I think lowering the threshold for snowfall WSW is appropriate. Average seasonal snowfall has been decreasing as well as occurrence of 6+" events. And we know that at times it takes far less to have major impacts around here. Even if these averages were to begin increasing again the lower threshold would still be appropriate in my opinion.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 28, 2023 15:51:51 GMT -6
The NHC forecast graphic playback for TS Philippe has been comical. TS Rina forming behind it has really put wrench in the forecast cog with some Fujiwhara monkey business going on.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 8, 2023 10:44:31 GMT -6
Lee is really cranking at 165 mph at 5 am AST. What's the record for maximum sustained winds for an Atlantic hurricane? I believe the official record is 190mph Allen 1980.
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