|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 18:46:57 GMT -6
Grapule coming down in Red Bud
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 18:17:21 GMT -6
I'm between Baldwin and Redbud and something's coming down
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 17:08:22 GMT -6
Light snow in Sesser Illinois. Roads are becoming wet
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 16:59:11 GMT -6
Disco they're still calling for ratios from 12 to 1 to 15 to 1.
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 16:45:16 GMT -6
The Weather Service says the heavy snow is not going to arrive until after midnight.
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 16:40:46 GMT -6
I've been driving from Carmi to Benton over the last half hour. I was under what looks like some pretty good echos from St.Louis but there's not anything coming down here. I was in Mount Vernon Indiana about an hour ago and it had just started to flurry there. It looks like a snow sky.
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 16:33:52 GMT -6
My spot forecast says 4 to 6 in tonight. My County forecast says 4 in.
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 16:06:15 GMT -6
Thought we weren't going to see any sleet out of this. Hmmmm
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 14:11:30 GMT -6
Wjat happened to all this talk of a cut-off low? Doesn't seem to be cut off. And now they're talking about about it stacking up. That's hardly independent action
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 11:11:48 GMT -6
Well St Louis didn't bow to the model pressure. Bring It On
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 10:39:36 GMT -6
WPC has shifted the bullseye to a hair North East Mount Vernon Illinois.
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 9:39:52 GMT -6
The big moisture push just seems to be further east. That seems to be the trend
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 8:44:43 GMT -6
The dry slotted country counties will probably have to deal with freezing drizzle
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 8:33:44 GMT -6
What a joke, 3KM says my house get's just an inch, maybe 1.5" while St. Charles county cashes in with 8-10"... Told you. The dry slot is coming. Right through Monroe and st. Clair County. Jefferson County too. Looks so familiar
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 7:34:51 GMT -6
St Louis National Weather Service has The Sweet Spot about 10 to 15 miles further east than what I thought yesterday. Just hope they don't move it any farther. I've seen some model runs that have st. Clair County and Monroe County getting dry slotted something fierce
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 23:20:22 GMT -6
When was the last time we all had a pure snowstorm? Both sides rockin! I can't remember the last big waa event here. You can get some really big numbers from them. Been soo long ago. Our waa stuff usually gets mucked up with rain or sleet Christmas Eve...however many years ago that was? I mean a monster waa. Last real good one I saw in this region was over SW & S MO a few years ago. 12+ from thundersnow all from the waa.
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 23:17:54 GMT -6
GFS ain't joining the party. Maybe that is why the NWS is not pulling the trigger on a bigger watch
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 23:10:06 GMT -6
When was the last time we all had a pure snowstorm? Both sides rockin! I can't remember the last big waa event here. You can get some really big numbers from them. Been soo long ago. Our waa stuff usually gets mucked up with rain or sleet
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 16:51:49 GMT -6
From everything I've seen the golden pivot winner looks like it's going to be Northern st. Clair County.
My point forecast calls for 2 to 4 overnight and one two three Thursday
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 16:45:48 GMT -6
From everything I've seen the golden pivot winner looks like it's going to be Northern st. Clair County
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 12:53:40 GMT -6
Even though the euro looks far-fetched what is a trait of a cut-off low? They tend to sit still for a while. If it parks in the right place.......
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 12:38:50 GMT -6
The whole key is where that thin band sets up. As Chris alluded to there's a heck of a dry slot to the east of that during over half of the event. Doesn't show up on all the models but it does on some
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 12:26:34 GMT -6
12Z EURO is a thing of absolute epicness. the euro is the one that goes for 14 hours straight with significant snow over much of the east side
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 12:23:15 GMT -6
I'm looking at some of these models and they show significant snowfall for 10 to 14 hours straight. That's crazy
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 10:32:37 GMT -6
7.6 inches recorded at Lambert on 11/26/75 is the record in November. Going back around this date for significant snow you have to go back to 1951. That's the one that came to mind for me. I was a senior in high school and it was the day before Thanksgiving. I was wondering if there was a way to sort through November snowfalls to see if there was a similar sized one any earlier. I remember this snow. Was old Newsboys Day held the day before Thanksgiving back then? I distinctly remember a heavy snow on the old Newsboys day. I'm pretty sure this was the one. They didn't cancel school that day and the heavy snow was falling as we went to school. It continued to fall during the morning. I believe they called school off early but the buses never made it back to pick us up, so we all had to walk. I didn't care. It must have been about 1.3 miles home. I had a blast
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 9:17:43 GMT -6
One of my customers in Benton said they've got a notice Paducah issuing winter storm watch. Haven't seen it posted yet
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 4:47:19 GMT -6
Of my many concerns with the Wednesday night Thursday system… the fact that it is being pulled into a westerly flow and not sucked up by a digging short wave dropping in from the North that seems to argue for a more rapid West to East push versus a South to North. These big wrapped up upper lows can wrap in some pretty prolific dry slots in the bands of snow become quite narrow. And I still think temperatures are probably going to be warmer than modeled at this stage of the game closer to freezing. However the initial onset being at night should help considerably to get the 1st layer of snow on the ground needed to build accumulations. The new European and to a certain extent the Canadian look more Realistic. It helps too that it's QPF placement is more in line with what you would expect with the GYB method Of heavy snow prediction. I am already on my way in to work for the morning show I doubt I will put numbers on anything today, just an outlook area of possible significant accumulation. Latest from WPC shows little if any influence from the short wave. Keeps snow way S.
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 12, 2018 16:10:23 GMT -6
I'm sure I'm going to come home to a big old goose-egg. That's fine with me
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 12, 2018 15:30:13 GMT -6
Last time I recall seeing something similar was in Kansas City around Halloween back in the mid/late 90s I believe.... think they had 8" in spots. Many power outages.
[/quote] This is a bit troubling. With our fall so far behind we're going to have quite a few trees and still have leaves on them. Probably not much different than what it was like in Kansas City around Halloween that year
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 12, 2018 14:22:16 GMT -6
What are your thoughts on the Thursday system BRTN? I'm still skeptical but its hard to ignore what every model is showing TBH I really haven't looked at much...but assuming we're dealing with a retreating arctic airmass I would say an all snow event is unlikely. Exactly. When you look at the forecast maps and you see 50 degree temperatures in Northern Missouri while this is supposed to be going on it makes you wonder
|
|