Post by Webster Groves on Sept 23, 2015 21:23:50 GMT -6
Statistician extraordinaire Nate Silver at the FiveThirtyEight Science blog went looking for the US cities with the most unpredictable weather. This is not a metric of "good" weather, but of it's predictability.
They looked at 120 American cities (one representative from each of the 120 National Weather Service forecast offices across the 50 states) calculating 10 weather statistics rather than just high temperatures, then combined the statistics into an overall measure of weather unpredictability for each city.
The Upper Midwest was the most unpredictable, with Rapid City, SD: "The ICAO code for Rapid City Regional Airport is KRAP. That’s also a good description of Rapid City’s weather."
On a typical day in Phoenix, the high temperature deviated from the long-term average by only 5 to 6 degrees. You could plan a wedding or golf tournament in Phoenix years in advance and be reasonably confident of what the temperature would be.
...
This wouldn’t be true for Denver. Over the past three years, climatology has missed the high temperature there by 9 to 10 degrees on average. And misses of 20 degrees or more, which almost never happen in Phoenix, have occurred, on average, once every other week in Denver.
...
This wouldn’t be true for Denver. Over the past three years, climatology has missed the high temperature there by 9 to 10 degrees on average. And misses of 20 degrees or more, which almost never happen in Phoenix, have occurred, on average, once every other week in Denver.
They looked at 120 American cities (one representative from each of the 120 National Weather Service forecast offices across the 50 states) calculating 10 weather statistics rather than just high temperatures, then combined the statistics into an overall measure of weather unpredictability for each city.
First, temperature:
High temperatures;
Low temperatures;
Daily mean temperatures.
Second, precipitation:
Rainfall, in inches;
Snowfall, in inches of snow (rather than the liquid equivalent7);
A binary variable indicating the presence or absence of precipitation (without regard to the type or amount of it). If there’s any precipitation at all over the 24-hour day, we score this variable as one. Otherwise, it’s zero.
Finally, severe weather and the conditions that contribute to it:
Wind speed;
Humidity8;
Cloud cover9;
A binary variable indicating whether there was a severe weather event (a thunderstorm, tornado or hail) in the city that day.
High temperatures;
Low temperatures;
Daily mean temperatures.
Second, precipitation:
Rainfall, in inches;
Snowfall, in inches of snow (rather than the liquid equivalent7);
A binary variable indicating the presence or absence of precipitation (without regard to the type or amount of it). If there’s any precipitation at all over the 24-hour day, we score this variable as one. Otherwise, it’s zero.
Finally, severe weather and the conditions that contribute to it:
Wind speed;
Humidity8;
Cloud cover9;
A binary variable indicating whether there was a severe weather event (a thunderstorm, tornado or hail) in the city that day.
The Upper Midwest was the most unpredictable, with Rapid City, SD: "The ICAO code for Rapid City Regional Airport is KRAP. That’s also a good description of Rapid City’s weather."
After Rapid City, those with the most unpredictable weather are Great Falls, Montana; Houghton, Michigan; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Fargo, North Dakota; Duluth, Minnesota; Bismarck, North Dakota; Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Island, Nebraska; and Glasgow, Montana.
Among cities that do fall within the most populous metro areas, those with the most unpredictable weather are as follows:
Kansas City, Missouri;
Oklahoma City;
Minneapolis;
Cincinnati;
Indianapolis;
St. Louis;
Birmingham, Alabama;
Boston;
Milwaukee;
Dallas.
Among cities that do fall within the most populous metro areas, those with the most unpredictable weather are as follows:
Kansas City, Missouri;
Oklahoma City;
Minneapolis;
Cincinnati;
Indianapolis;
St. Louis;
Birmingham, Alabama;
Boston;
Milwaukee;
Dallas.
