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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2018 4:25:01 GMT -6
HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE! And with Easter...comes snow and a new thread! Not much change in my thinking...although I did ease the "Dusting to 2" zone a touch more to the south out of respect for the HRRR and RAP trends of bringing more snow a litle further south. There will likely be some wild variety in totals... not only because of the time of year/ground temperatures...but because of the nature of mesoscale banding. I would not be surprised to see a few pops of 3" within my "dusting to 2" band...but with so much variety...I didn't want to push to hard. Dusting to 2 gets the message across that it is going to snow... The greatest chance for 2-4"+ type snows remains in the more favorable swath from Moberly through Elsberry...and east to Vandalia. I do expect sleet to be mixed with the snow for a time near/south of I-70...but a change to all snow appears likely. I honestly see very little potential for freezing rain given the depth of the cold layer beneath the warm wedge aloft. I have not mentioned this yet... but convective elements are likely to feed into the southern edge of the snow...with hints of elevated instability being pushed north into the region of snow...and of course slantwise instability as well. Not a bad little system...especially when you consider the time of year and how crummy a winter season it was.   |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 1, 2018 6:00:55 GMT -6
Brrr it's cold this morning. Also don't be fooled by the sunny start today. Hard to believe we might be doing this again next weekend if the GFS is on to something. As I said before last thread where was this pattern during DJF?
As for severe threat on Tuesday, SPC currently shows that east of our area, but if the system slows down could put the Illinois/southeastern Missouri counties at risk. Regardless looks like severe active wants to ramp up significantly once this cold pattern breaks mid to late month lasting into early to mid May.
Back to today the 10Z HRRR/RAP would be a solid hit for the metro by the second band with some 2-4" numbers which isn't impossible given the convective elements, a slightly later start time doesn't hurt either as the sun would be lowering then and not at peak heating.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 1, 2018 6:10:51 GMT -6
Dipped to 28° this morning
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 1, 2018 6:15:17 GMT -6
Fresh monthlies are in and they state to 'enjoy' the cold and active pattern now as once Summer hits (June-Aug) its gonna be hotter then Hades and turning back to a drought-like pattern. April-May are active and cold (April) to mild (May). Looks like 4 to 5 weeks from now and the pattern will break for until next cold season.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 1, 2018 6:20:10 GMT -6
HRRR has a lot of sleet south of I-70.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 1, 2018 6:23:51 GMT -6
Off weather topic for just a bit, but it looks like the Chinese space station Tiangong-1 will be falling back to Earth later tonight or Monday which could be visible from here in St. Louis (assuming clouds have cleared by than) depending on where on it's orbit it descends into the atmosphere. Like Skylab and Mir it'll break up and mostly dissolve on the way down though a few larger pieces could still hit the ground. Chances are this will happen over ocean or uninhabited land. Keep in mind however this is a uncontrolled descent as control was lost with the station a couple years ago. The station itself is roughly school bus sized for comparison. Due to the solar minimum the earth fall window has been extending so this could still be slowed down farther though it'll likely re-enter no later than Wednesday at the latest.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 1, 2018 6:25:57 GMT -6
HRRR has a lot of sleet south of I-70. Probably with thunder too.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 1, 2018 6:31:33 GMT -6
clearly a southward trend with the heavier QPF for the 11Z Meso cycles. Looks like right along I-70 will be the maxima with the immediate metro on the southern extent of the heaviest QPF. Could be snowing/sleeting like the dickens for a few hours with decent flake size. Maybe some small hail/very large sleet pellets (pea sized) in the heavier cores?
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Apr 1, 2018 6:40:37 GMT -6
Happy Easter, everyone, hard to believe snow is in the forecast.   |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 1, 2018 7:23:55 GMT -6
Hrrr looks amazing.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 1, 2018 7:44:16 GMT -6
Any convective elements feeding in from the south could really jackpot some folks. Should be a fun afternoon.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2018 8:27:38 GMT -6
Any convective elements feeding in from the south could really jackpot some folks. Should be a fun afternoon. KSGF radar shows convective showers feeding into the developing band...good moisture advection and potential for instability. |
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 1, 2018 9:19:13 GMT -6
Looks like st.peters ofallon area to Jeff city may get lots of snow that main band inching south each run
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Post by birddog on Apr 1, 2018 9:22:17 GMT -6
Some one in the last thread was talking about ice storm on Easter. I believe it was 1978? We had a big ice storm either followed by flooding rains or vice versa. It warmed up right after the event, but the damage was done. We lost power for a week, others in the northern part of Macoupin were out power for close to a month. This is how memory serves me, can that be verified?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2018 9:38:13 GMT -6
Some one in the last thread was talking about ice storm on Easter. I believe it was 1978? We had a big ice storm either followed by flooding rains or vice versa. It warmed up right after the event, but the damage was done. We lost power for a week, others in the northern part of Macoupin were out power for close to a month. This is how memory serves me, can that be verified? Your best bet would be to contact the NWS directly. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2018 9:39:07 GMT -6
Waiting for this snow is like waiting on spring at this point!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Apr 1, 2018 9:39:11 GMT -6
Will someone post the total qpf of the latest HRRR??
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Apr 1, 2018 9:43:36 GMT -6
This is starting to really look like the snow event from 2 weeks ago.
The forecasters ended up stuck on the idea of the snow maximum being well North of where it ended up.
Even tho the models clearly showed The heavy snow axis along 64/70.
Looking at the short range models it appears there will be 4-6 hours of moderate to heavy sleet/snow through the central metro.
So what gives???
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 1, 2018 9:48:49 GMT -6
Sister in law took a couple of pictures of thee front moving through last evening ![]()   |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2018 10:00:31 GMT -6
I think someone in the metro is getting thundersnow later today
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Post by jeepers on Apr 1, 2018 10:11:32 GMT -6
Normally I would be giddy with joy over just the thought of this, but right now I'm concerned about getting to the airport by 4:15 from far west county. Daughter has to go back to college. Lordy.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2018 10:15:38 GMT -6
This is starting to really look like the snow event from 2 weeks ago. The forecasters ended up stuck on the idea of the snow maximum being well North of where it ended up. Even tho the models clearly showed The heavy snow axis along 64/70. Looking at the short range models it appears there will be 4-6 hours of moderate to heavy sleet/snow through the central metro. So what gives??? Other than it being a snow event this looks nothing like the last one...like completely different setup and forcing mechanisms all together. The NWS seems to be hedging on more of a mix in the Metro and points along 44/64 and I think that's possible but likely wrong. Between evaporational cooling/wetbulbing and dynamic/convective lift processes I think the majority of the precip will fall as wet snow...all the model partial thicknesses I've looked at were very supportive of snow vs. rain or sleet for the N 2/3rds of the CWA. The EURO looked the warmest but still snowy across the metro. I do think sleet/hail will mix in further S across the sleet capital of the world. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2018 10:23:16 GMT -6
Upstream radar shows the mesoscale band only 1/4 to 1/2 county wide...about 5-10SM at most.
No telling where exactly that sets up at...or how many bands emerge...but the snowfall under them should be fairly persistent and intense.
KEAX radar donut hole filling in quickly now with showery/banded returns streaming in from the SW.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2018 10:26:17 GMT -6
The HRRR really slams the central metro with very heavy snow with lesser amounts across the advisory area. Not sure I believe it but that would be something to remember
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Post by landscaper on Apr 1, 2018 10:36:18 GMT -6
I agree with brtn, with temps in the low to mid 30’s and dew points I’m the the low 20’s we should be mostly snow
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 1, 2018 10:39:13 GMT -6
I'm thinking a mix I-70 and south. This is what makes this board fun. You can get different opinions from different posters. And that's ok. It's just another way this forum can communicate the envelope of possibilities to the lurkers.
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Post by landscaper on Apr 1, 2018 10:41:25 GMT -6
The hrrr has been very consistent on its placement of the heaviest band through the metro, the rap is close but a little north of it. The NAM and gfs are definitely further north on the placement . One thing for sure this air mass is colder than the last snowstorm. Everyone was well below freezing last night. Snow should accumulate especially if it’s after sunset
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 1, 2018 10:54:37 GMT -6
Upstream radar shows the mesoscale band only 1/4 to 1/2 county wide...about 5-10SM at most. No telling where exactly that sets up at...or how many bands emerge...but the snowfall under them should be fairly persistent and intense. KEAX radar donut hole filling in quickly now with showery/banded returns streaming in from the SW. Like you said the radar along I-70 near KEAX is really lighting up now. There is area along and north of I-70 that has both frontogenesis and WAA occurring. It'll be interesting to see if the bulk of precipitation plays out north along US-36 or further south along I-70. Obviously, I'm rooting for team HRRR on this one  |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Apr 1, 2018 11:04:31 GMT -6
HRRR has a lot of sleet south of I-70. Probably with thunder too. Can anyone access this map or is it premium? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 1, 2018 11:11:17 GMT -6
Good bit of lightning with the freezing rain and sleet in sw MO. Indication of what may be to come.
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