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Post by Snowman99 on May 24, 2018 5:06:18 GMT -6
Looking like any significant tropical moisture from the soon to be disturbance in the Gulf will remain to our south and east,as a big high blocks it. Still keep an eye out though.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 24, 2018 7:07:55 GMT -6
Looking like any significant tropical moisture from the soon to be disturbance in the Gulf will remain to our south and east,as a big high blocks it. Still keep an eye out though. Yea, well it is Memorial Day weekend in STL so if there is a remote possibility of rain chances are it'll happen one way or another. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 24, 2018 8:57:42 GMT -6
Nam has the tropical system getting organized off the Yucatan peninsula then spinning into the central Gulf.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 24, 2018 10:19:38 GMT -6
No way I put out a dry forecast for Memorial Day weekend. If it can find a way to rain... it will.
Also, it is appearing more and more likely that record or near-record breaking heat is on tap for next week. With a large tropical system slowly building into the Gulf Coast states, ridging will be amplified to the north of the tropical spin with subsidence taking over. This will cause a road block in the atmosphere and allow our temperatures to soar. There are some indications of this in the GFS MOS guidance already with forecast temps well into the 90s. I do not doubt this at all. Any substantial risk of storms will be more closely tied to the evolution of the GOM system and how far northwest its influence can extend.
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 24, 2018 11:36:50 GMT -6
No way I put out a dry forecast for Memorial Day weekend. If it can find a way to rain... it will. Also, it is appearing more and more likely that record or near-record breaking heat is on tap for next week. With a large tropical system slowly building into the Gulf Coast states, ridging will be amplified to the north of the tropical spin with subsidence taking over. This will cause a road block in the atmosphere and allow our temperatures to soar. There are some indications of this in the GFS MOS guidance already with forecast temps well into the 90s. I do not doubt this at all. Any substantial risk of storms will be more closely tied to the evolution of the GOM system and how far northwest its influence can extend. Come on system, get up here |
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Post by cozpregon on May 24, 2018 11:51:11 GMT -6
No way I put out a dry forecast for Memorial Day weekend. If it can find a way to rain... it will. Also, it is appearing more and more likely that record or near-record breaking heat is on tap for next week. With a large tropical system slowly building into the Gulf Coast states, ridging will be amplified to the north of the tropical spin with subsidence taking over. This will cause a road block in the atmosphere and allow our temperatures to soar. There are some indications of this in the GFS MOS guidance already with forecast temps well into the 90s. I do not doubt this at all. Any substantial risk of storms will be more closely tied to the evolution of the GOM system and how far northwest its influence can extend. NAM is a bit extreme Sunday... but any storms that may develop over the weekend (Sat/Sun and Mon) will have wind/downburst potential. Little if any cap... very steep low level lapse rates and solid DCAPEs- will just need something to kick them off.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 24, 2018 12:41:23 GMT -6
A few small cells starting to show up in the Columbia/Rolla vicinity. Don't seem to be going much of anywhere in a hurry.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 24, 2018 13:52:00 GMT -6
Already an Excessive Heat risk for the 29th/31st on the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Could make a run at 100 degrees especially in the metro core. Wouldn't be surprised to see heat headlines raised (likely an Advisory). June is looking ugly (for those that dread heat and drought). Dave's forecast last week seems to be leading to a very long and miserable Summer perhaps the worst since 2012. Could be a benchmark Summer if the dry pattern actually does end up settling in. Also impressive to see the models throwing up 597 to 600DM 500MB ridges this early in the season. The trends aren't good for an 'easy' Summer.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 24, 2018 14:16:21 GMT -6
As much as your apocalyptic heat mongering usually drives me nuts I do agree with you. A hot dry summer is looking fairly likely in my opinion. We seem to be in an overall dry pattern as a whole on the longer term scale looking back a year or so. Weather systems aren't behaving like normal (i.e. long sweeping squall lines across the plains that move across the middle of the country are quite rare these days). The rain that we have gotten has been someone disorganized. A lot of it I think has to do with the patch of severe drought in the southern plains. Droughts start and end there.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 24, 2018 19:14:09 GMT -6
I hope we miss out on severe this go around... daughter graduates Sunday, party Saturday. Need this weekend to go off without a hitch.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 24, 2018 22:22:15 GMT -6
No way I put out a dry forecast for Memorial Day weekend. If it can find a way to rain... it will. Also, it is appearing more and more likely that record or near-record breaking heat is on tap for next week. With a large tropical system slowly building into the Gulf Coast states, ridging will be amplified to the north of the tropical spin with subsidence taking over. This will cause a road block in the atmosphere and allow our temperatures to soar. There are some indications of this in the GFS MOS guidance already with forecast temps well into the 90s. I do not doubt this at all. Any substantial risk of storms will be more closely tied to the evolution of the GOM system and how far northwest its influence can extend. Ugh!!!!!!!!! Is summer over yet......of course once again, if there is any record we break it is always heat! Never a snow record. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 25, 2018 0:48:42 GMT -6
I hope we get four dry days next week. We're supposed to be getting a new driveway poured. They've been running several weeks behind because of the rain.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 25, 2018 7:10:16 GMT -6
Just had a two minute rain shower. Enough to make puddles. As my dad called them "a tramp shower."
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 25, 2018 7:18:24 GMT -6
Just had a two minute rain shower. Enough to make puddles. As my dad called them "a tramp shower." Had a great rainbow from it and just now starting to get sprinkles here. However, none of the 8 weather segments I watched this morning showed any rain right now, just midday or this afternoon. Excuse the billboard blocking the view...   |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 25, 2018 7:29:25 GMT -6
Just had a two minute rain shower. Enough to make puddles. As my dad called them "a tramp shower." Had a great rainbow from it and just now starting to get sprinkles here. However, none of the 8 weather segments I watched this morning showed any rain right now, just midday or this afternoon. Excuse the billboard blocking the view... I had trouble finding it on radar. Buried in the ground clutter |
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Post by bdgwx on May 25, 2018 9:03:18 GMT -6
The model consensus brings Alberto into the LA/MS/AL/FL border area and then suggests it will take a northeast track once it makes landfall. Right now it appears the bulk of the rain will stay to our southeast.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 25, 2018 9:38:55 GMT -6
Hoping for a bit of rain here today to keep things from drying out. It is trying to come together in the Rolla area at the moment.
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Post by bear1 on May 25, 2018 10:43:18 GMT -6
Almost a 1/2" from that little downpour. Temp went from 82° to 72°
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 25, 2018 10:48:23 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 25, 2018 10:51:07 GMT -6
When did the NYC decide to start naming systems before they reach TS criteria?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 25, 2018 11:06:42 GMT -6
Some hints showing of a weak to moderate Modoki El Nino developing by Winter time. These types of El Ninos tend to be good for St. Louis Winters granting us some of our best snowfalls with a decent balance of waves of cold and mild but not too cold to suppress stuff to the south. Question is whether the NAO and AO as well as the EPO and PNA will play nice. Won't know that for awhile though next Winter looks more interesting then the past few.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 25, 2018 11:10:55 GMT -6
Some models show Alberto making landfall near New Orleans as a weak Hurricane with 75-90 mph winds on Monday/Memorial Day. I think that's one of the earliest US hurricane landfalls on record if that were to happen?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 25, 2018 11:12:50 GMT -6
Line of showers and storms crawling up just south of I-44, should impact the metro (especially southern Metro) in about an hour to hour in a half.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 25, 2018 11:15:43 GMT -6
"Blackberry Winter" comes late this year according to the 12Z GFS. Nice cutoff low bowling through June 5th to 7th with a decent trough remaining through the 9th with well below average temperatures with highs struggling to get out of the 60s for a few days and lows in the lower 50s. #hoodieseasonnotover
Things do set back for a hot spell after the 11th however... So got that as well.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 25, 2018 11:18:59 GMT -6
Exposed center of TS Alberto very visible on Goes-16 satellite off the Yucatan, gonna have to wind up pretty soon if it's gonna develop anywhere as fast as some of the guidance is showing.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 25, 2018 11:26:35 GMT -6
12Z ICON jackpots the metro with the remnants of Alberto giving several inches of rain. It'll change next cycle for sure but interesting to see.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 25, 2018 12:13:13 GMT -6
The Arch effect sure killed that line of storms for the city. Southern areas getting wet, but they had quite a bit earlier in the week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 25, 2018 12:40:49 GMT -6
There has been some big time CG lightning strikes with this little cell. The kind that shake the house and rattle windows
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Post by bdgwx on May 25, 2018 13:47:20 GMT -6
When did the NYC decide to start naming systems before they reach TS criteria? I think it started last year. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 25, 2018 13:51:12 GMT -6
12Z ECMWF has Alberto's remnants side swiping the metro area as well on Wednesday.
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