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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 10, 2018 15:41:52 GMT -6
Sure looks like some storms want to fire. There's a couple so far but don't know if we'll get any more.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 10, 2018 17:22:17 GMT -6
Amazing gradient. I'll be headed up to the WI border next weekend to pick morels and I was concerned about the heat building this weekend...luckily the NW flow and cloud/precip keeps N IL locked in the cool air until next week. How did you do around here? I only found 120 which is about 25 percent of my average good years. It was really strange...I have many hotspots on my farm and they produced practically nothing. I've heard similar from other folks in the area. Seems like that mid April cold snap killed the season as they were beginning the fruiting process. Many of the larger morels I found had frost nipped tips. I had about the same luck around here, but I did find a few pounds of big yellows last Sunday. The cool snap seemed to put the kabosh on most spots...same old story for the past several years now. Hoping for much better luck up north...it's amazing how much more consistent their springs are 300mi to the north. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on May 10, 2018 17:42:41 GMT -6
On of these springs I am heading up to the national morel festival in MI. They just happen to have it in the same town where I have a resort. He he he
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Post by jmg378s on May 10, 2018 17:58:26 GMT -6
GFS has a strong tropical system off the east coast for Memorial Day weekend. Of course, that's way out It's been developing this system deep in the Caribbean run after run after run. Remarkably consistent, but most likely wrong. The GFS does have issues from time to time with false alarm TC genesis events and the ECM doesn't have much of anything at the end of it's run either. And as you already pointed out...it's way out there. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 10, 2018 18:04:04 GMT -6
Well, I wasn't wrong. A few storms fired. But very precious few!
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Post by dschreib on May 10, 2018 18:10:52 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 10, 2018 20:42:32 GMT -6
Looks like Kansas could get stamped pretty good...while Texas and Oklahoma get the shaft on this one. |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 10, 2018 23:00:11 GMT -6
I love it when mets draw unintentional? porn, lol.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 10, 2018 23:11:35 GMT -6
Could be a tropical depression or weak storm forming off the west coast of Florida in the next few days that could add additional moisture and humidity to the picture for areas along and east of the Mississippi River next week. Welcome to July in May everyone. It's gonna be a long hot Summer possibly rivaling that of 2012 (Yeah there's that year again), maybe not quite as bad, but could be close.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 11, 2018 7:25:30 GMT -6
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on May 11, 2018 8:55:36 GMT -6
What's with the line of rain/t-storms out to the west? Will that eventually make it to the immediate metro area or dry up before that?
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 11, 2018 8:58:15 GMT -6
What's with the line of rain/t-storms out to the west? Will that eventually make it here or dry up before that? Sort of unexpected but they are pretty weak. Some scattered stuff possible through noonish but likely won't amount to much. |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
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Post by Jeke on May 11, 2018 9:00:30 GMT -6
What's with the line of rain/t-storms out to the west? Will that eventually make it here or dry up before that? Sort of unexpected but they are pretty weak. Some scattered stuff possible through noonish but likely won't amount to much. Thanks. Told grass cutters to come today assuming it would be dry. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 11, 2018 10:42:38 GMT -6
They will dry up..although it will be close call for a few sprinkles out west. Warm air aloft/capping inversion expected to become quite strong resulting in significant inhibition. The forcing just simply will not be strong enough to overcome the cap.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 11, 2018 12:29:22 GMT -6
Holy cats, it's really gotten gusty windy in the last 1/2 hour. I'm guessing it's the remnants of that old line of showers collapsing. I'm getting 30+ mph winds
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Post by bdgwx on May 11, 2018 13:43:09 GMT -6
Feel the burn. I'm thinking there's a chance at breaking a 100+ year old record on Sunday.
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Post by ndolan387 on May 11, 2018 14:12:07 GMT -6
Feel the burn. I'm thinking there's a chance at breaking a 100+ year old record on Sunday. Yeah 94-5 looks doable rn. |
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Post by cozpregon on May 11, 2018 14:47:59 GMT -6
Feel the burn. I'm thinking there's a chance at breaking a 100+ year old record on Sunday. If we get the 850 temps the Euro shows... yes. If we get the 850 temps the NAM shows... no. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 11, 2018 15:28:09 GMT -6
Interesting set-up the next few days...devils (as always) in the details.
For Saturday....
The cap/inhibition does not appear to be as strong tomorrow...especially in the morning...and have some concerns we may end up with some convection. The NAM, NAM3km, GFS and Euro all show a small 500mb shortwave rolling across Missouri tomorrow...with a modest mid-level flow of 40kts. The NAM and NAM3km maintain a cap (but barely) and the GFS erodes it completely by midday before mid-level warm air advection strengthens it again. So there may be a window where some storms may be possible tomorrow morning into the very early afternoon. I am not comfortable enough to mention or put in the forecast just yet...but at the very least we may end up with some mid-level clouds.
As for the temperatures... no question records are in jeopardy... but the juxtaposition of the more active convection zone just to our north...is so close that it could a) spread some dense cirrus into our skies and slow the warm-up...or b) send an outflow south and cool us of and/or generate new storms that cool us off as well. As a result...going down a middle of the road track...still forecasting 90...but not a record.
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Post by ElburnDave on May 11, 2018 16:03:51 GMT -6
It’s a blistering 53 degrees here at 5 pm. I don’t miss STL weather.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 11, 2018 17:20:38 GMT -6
This article suggests a direct lava tube link between Kilauea and the activity of the Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone. Has anyone seen anything that provides more information and facts to support this?
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davem
Weather Weenie
Posts: 9
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Post by davem on May 11, 2018 19:58:59 GMT -6
check the source for the link between Kilauea and Wyoming... INFINITY +1 NEWS
Snews- noun - News that is satirical. Satirical news
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 12, 2018 1:16:24 GMT -6
check the source for the link between Kilauea and Wyoming... INFINITY +1 NEWS Snews- noun - News that is satirical. Satirical news I guess I'm a stick in the mud'cuz I fail to see the satire. That said it explains why the article was woefully short on supporting information. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 12, 2018 8:12:19 GMT -6
The current records are:
5/12: 92 in 1956
5/13: 91 in 1915
5/14: 93 in 2013
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Post by Snowman99 on May 12, 2018 9:01:38 GMT -6
Way too hot and muggy for Mid May. Yuck.
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Post by yypc on May 12, 2018 15:39:37 GMT -6
Avg high in May is 76. I hope things mellow out a bit going forward or the next 5 months are going to be torture.
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Post by unclesam6 on May 12, 2018 16:09:39 GMT -6
NWS Forecasting 95 for STL tomorrow. Forecast SFC dewpoints in the upper 60s near 70* by 21z tomorrow afternoon
Flirting with 100 degree heat indicies...
Disgusting.
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Post by cozpregon on May 12, 2018 22:56:29 GMT -6
Tuesday afternoon/evening may be interesting.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 13, 2018 6:57:30 GMT -6
This potential pattern this week better produce some rain for us. This hot wind is already drying things out.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 13, 2018 8:03:12 GMT -6
81 degrees at 9 AM. Late June in Mid May.
And I agree that we need to start getting some regular rains very soon or it's going to be a terrible summer for farmers.
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