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Post by RyanD on May 31, 2018 18:39:30 GMT -6
Surprised that cell west of Viburnum doesn't have a tornado warning. Looks like some good rotation.
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Post by fojginmo on May 31, 2018 18:43:20 GMT -6
Some Mammatus clouds overhead my NOTW.
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Post by weatherman222 on May 31, 2018 18:50:44 GMT -6
Curious about that tennis ball hail report. VIL data doesnt seem that impressive.
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Post by weatherman222 on May 31, 2018 18:53:09 GMT -6
Seeing some training of cells too moving into the Park Hills area that was effected by flash flooding recently.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 31, 2018 18:58:35 GMT -6
Can't copy the picture from Facebook on my tablet but on the FB page of KOLR-TV Springfield they a picture of some hail that fell at Rockaway Beach. Looks to be just shy of baseball size.
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Post by bdgwx on May 31, 2018 19:08:25 GMT -6
Surprised that cell west of Viburnum doesn't have a tornado warning. Looks like some good rotation. That's the one I had my eye on. It was a anticyclonic rotator with the hook on the north side. It's persistent too. Still going as of this post. I hope someone got pictures of it. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 31, 2018 19:18:54 GMT -6
Surprised that cell west of Viburnum doesn't have a tornado warning. Looks like some good rotation. That's the one I had my eye on. It was a anticyclonic rotator with the hook on the north side. It's persistent too. Still going as of this post. I hope someone got pictures of it. Doubtful, nobody lives there  . |
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Post by perryville on May 31, 2018 19:27:13 GMT -6
That's the one I had my eye on. It was a anticyclonic rotator with the hook on the north side. It's persistent too. Still going as of this post. I hope someone got pictures of it. Doubtful, nobody lives there . I should’ve taken pics on my 3 trips to umpire baseball in Annapolis and Eminence. Not only do people live there, it’s beautiful country! Didn’t have time to enjoy it, but plan on going back! |
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Post by bororug on May 31, 2018 19:39:57 GMT -6
Not much here except distant thunder to the south. The one thing we did get was some good coloring to the sky as the sunset.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 31, 2018 19:41:57 GMT -6
Looks like another strong left mover approaching Salem, Mo
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Post by bdgwx on May 31, 2018 19:48:12 GMT -6
These left movers are just as strong and maybe stronger than the right movers. That's not common at all.
Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis the left-moving supercell composite parameter is -4 right now which makes sense given what we're observing.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 31, 2018 20:03:52 GMT -6
Doubtful, nobody lives there . I should’ve taken pics on my 3 trips to umpire baseball in Annapolis and Eminence. Not only do people live there, it’s beautiful country! Didn’t have time to enjoy it, but plan on going back! Oh I agree it's beautiful. I did a lot of work for the conservation department on the current and other rivers. I was just bringing back an old joke on this forum. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 31, 2018 20:12:06 GMT -6
Well that was one of the most unpleasant days of chasing I've had in a while. Long drive to less than ideal terrain and about 30 minutes too late to almost every event I was trying to catch. I just never quite felt in sync. It's like a pitcher who can't get the curve ball to work
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 31, 2018 20:14:15 GMT -6
A former intern of mine sent me a picture of the Cape Gerardo tornado that I also missed by maybe 20 minutes
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 31, 2018 20:35:25 GMT -6
Bummer Chris.
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on May 31, 2018 20:44:14 GMT -6
Hey all if you go to Real Rock 99.3 Facebook page they have footage of that Cape G tornado.
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on May 31, 2018 20:46:52 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 31, 2018 20:55:42 GMT -6
Wow what time did that happen!? Was it tornado warned and what did the radar look like at that time on that cell?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 31, 2018 21:03:51 GMT -6
Wow what time did that happen!? Was it tornado warned and what did the radar look like at that time on that cell? Surprisingly there is only two tornado reports from that storm. One being unconfirmed |
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Post by cozpregon on May 31, 2018 21:45:09 GMT -6
Saturday still looks confusing... but with strong potential. One thing for sure... early next week looks perfect.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 31, 2018 22:31:35 GMT -6
I have video of that tornado on my Twitter feed that I Shared earlier as well
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 1, 2018 0:43:24 GMT -6
Saturday still looks confusing... but with strong potential. One thing for sure... early next week looks perfect. Do you mean we might actually get a few more hours of spring? Or at least dewpoints of less than 65?? |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jun 1, 2018 4:48:07 GMT -6
Well that was one of the most unpleasant days of chasing I've had in a while. Long drive to less than ideal terrain and about 30 minutes too late to almost every event I was trying to catch. I just never quite felt in sync. It's like a pitcher who can't get the curve ball to work I wouldn't even chase down there. I look in Missouri pretty much anything south of the Missouri River I'd say no to. not enough straight roads and with the hills the visibility is dicey. Anout the only way I do it down there as if I could find a storm that would let let me follow it down 60. Of course, I have to be down by Springfield to do that. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 1, 2018 7:57:56 GMT -6
Whatever happens tonight will set the stage for what happens tomorrow. There's a lot of confidence that an MCS will form in Nebraska and sag southeast possibly encroaching deep into Missouri. This may spoil the airmass and mitigate the severe risk. MCS propagation vectors are notoriously difficult to model though so we really have no idea on it's precise track. We already know a bias is for models to underestimate their propagation speed. If the MCS races through MO early then there may be more recovery time for the atmosphere destabilize again. One thing we're all accustomed to here in MO is that it is more likely to see a deescalation of risk as we get closer than an escalation of risk. Will tomorrow be different?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 1, 2018 9:17:24 GMT -6
Whatever happens tonight will set the stage for what happens tomorrow. There's a lot of confidence that an MCS will form in Nebraska and sag southeast possibly encroaching deep into Missouri. This may spoil the airmass and mitigate the severe risk. MCS propagation vectors are notoriously difficult to model though so we really have no idea on it's precise track. We already know a bias is for models to underestimate their propagation speed. If the MCS races through MO early then there may be more recovery time for the atmosphere destabilize again. One thing we're all accustomed to here in MO is that it is more likely to see a deescalation of risk as we get closer than an escalation of risk. Will tomorrow be different? Case in point... the Super Dercho (MCS) of June 29th 2012 that marched from Chicago all the way into the atlantic off the Virgina coast. EDIT: May have actually started in Iowa? I just know it was long lived and not modled until it was moving through Indiana. If memory serves me right. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 1, 2018 9:28:50 GMT -6
If I had to put money on it I would guess that we don't destablize in time tomorrow afternoon for anything too severe to take place.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 1, 2018 9:31:13 GMT -6
10 AM with a temp of 85 and a dewpoint of 72. Gonna'be a long summer unless the pattern changes radically
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 1, 2018 9:56:37 GMT -6
Saturday still looks confusing... but with strong potential. One thing for sure... early next week looks perfect. Yeah. Confusing is a good choice of words. First the NAM didn't want to want to spoil the atmosphere for tomorrow and now it does (especially the hi-res) while the GFS did spoil it and now it doesn't. So not only are they flip flopping they can't even agree on their flips and flops. At any rate the 12Z GFS is showing the MCS taking more of a slower eastward vector tonight which allows the warm front to advance north of I-70 where an outflow boundary from the MCS may begin interacting in the afternoon setting up initiation up that way. I think that's the biggest wildcard right now. If the atmosphere doesn't get spoiled north of I-70 that's where my money is on for the highest tornado potential. Either way though I don't think the tornado potential is going to be all that high. Everywhere else large hail is probably the primary risk...again, if the GFS is right. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 1, 2018 10:02:26 GMT -6
I actually have no idea what the SPC is going to do with the D2 outlook in a couple of hours. Obviously they'll get to chew over that GFS run, but tomorrow is still pretty conditional IMHO. There's probably going to be more forecaster intuition than normal on this one. I'm always a advocate for more conservative outlooks so if it were me I'd just leave this as a slight risk for now. I suppose I'd keep a hatched (sig) area if for no other reason than to not deviate to far from the previous forecaster's line of thinking.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 1, 2018 10:33:18 GMT -6
Heres the SREF Plumes MUCape for STL tomorrow. Not exactly much consensus tomorrow afternoon  |
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