Post by bdgwx on Jun 17, 2018 20:39:31 GMT -6
So I've spent a lot of my free time the last couple of years studying the climate and I thought I share some links and information for you guys that I found useful.
Arrhenius 1896: On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground - This is the first known quantifiable prediction of carbon dioxide's effect on the surface temperature. The calculations Arrhenius made were largely made from formulas derived from various laboratory experiments such as those by Tyndall in 1861 and theoretical concepts proposed in the early 1800's by figures such as Fourier (of Fourier analysis fame) and Josef Stefan (of Stefan/Boltzmann law fame). Arrhenius' estimation formula is ΔF = α ln(C/Co) where C is the ending concentration, Co is the beginning concentration, α is the sensitivity parameter, and F is the change in radiative forcing. Given the lack of understanding at the time Arrhenius' calculation of the warming effect is remarkably accurate. However, it took him a few more years before he realized humans were going to warm to the planet via the industrial release of CO2 and thus is given credit for the first prediction of anthroprogenic climate change. See this NASA page and the Wikipedia article for more information.
Callendar 1938: The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and its Influence on the Temperature - This set the stage for introducing the world to the reality that human behavior was going to influence the climate. Callendar built on the work of Arrhenius and others, but whereas Arrhenius was largely ignored because nobody thought to care, Callendar not only refined the calculation, but brought attention of the effect to the mainstream scientific community. His 2C climate sensitivity prediction, notably done without the aid of a computer, was so accurate that even today it is within the IPCC's margin of error (though it is on the low end). Despite his efforts he was still met with skepticism by his peers though the skepticism was waning by the time he died in the 1960's.
Hansen 1988: Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model - Fast forward to the 70's and 80's in an era where quantum mechanics matured and was well accepted by science. Whereas before no one could explain why certain gas species produced a warming effect this was an era where QM could fully explain why the molecule was transparent to incoming shortwave photons but opaque to outgoing longwave photons. The scientific community began collecting large amounts of data regarding the global mean surface temperature and the realization dawned on everyone that the predictions made decades earlier not only had merit, but were likely already verifying with remarkable accuracy. This was all playing out even during the misreported 70's global cooling scare (see THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS for more information on that). This was also the era in which numerical simulations were supporting earlier predictions based on laboratory experiments and quantum electrodynamics (QED) theory. Hansen, perhaps controversially, dropped the bomb on the American public when he testified before the US Congress that there was indeed a definitive casual relationship between anthroprogenic behaviors and the global mean surface temperature.
IPCC AR5 2013: Physical Science Basis Report - This represents the culmination of more than 1,000 expert contributors, 9,000 peer reviewed publications, 50,000 expert reviews, and 2,000,000 gigabytes of data. And although carbon dioxide admittedly gets the focus of climate change scientists actually consider many elements of the climate including solar radiation, orbital parameters, volcanism, biological activity, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), greenhouse gases (CO2, halocarbons, methane, etc.), aerosols (both natural and anthroprogenic), water vapor, and much more. This report is an in depth review of the science behind climate and all of the factors that are considered. Anything and everything you want to know about the science of climate change is in this report. If you read nothing else then read this.
CSSR NCA4 2017: Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I - This represents a summary review of scientific literature regarding global climate change with a particular emphasis on impacts that can be expected here in the United States. And although the report is based on peer reviewed publications it should be understood that many aspects of the report are more speculative in nature or at least the predictions exhibit lower confidence levels. But when viewed in that context you can at least get a hint of broad trends and general patterns that can be expected in the future. Fair warning...the general consensus for those of us in the midwest is that there will be fewer Winter Storm Warnings and more Excessive Heat Warnings in the future. And while subtle hints of global warming should start becoming evident around 2020 most of us probably won't give it much thought until about 2050 or so.
Arrhenius 1896: On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground - This is the first known quantifiable prediction of carbon dioxide's effect on the surface temperature. The calculations Arrhenius made were largely made from formulas derived from various laboratory experiments such as those by Tyndall in 1861 and theoretical concepts proposed in the early 1800's by figures such as Fourier (of Fourier analysis fame) and Josef Stefan (of Stefan/Boltzmann law fame). Arrhenius' estimation formula is ΔF = α ln(C/Co) where C is the ending concentration, Co is the beginning concentration, α is the sensitivity parameter, and F is the change in radiative forcing. Given the lack of understanding at the time Arrhenius' calculation of the warming effect is remarkably accurate. However, it took him a few more years before he realized humans were going to warm to the planet via the industrial release of CO2 and thus is given credit for the first prediction of anthroprogenic climate change. See this NASA page and the Wikipedia article for more information.
Callendar 1938: The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and its Influence on the Temperature - This set the stage for introducing the world to the reality that human behavior was going to influence the climate. Callendar built on the work of Arrhenius and others, but whereas Arrhenius was largely ignored because nobody thought to care, Callendar not only refined the calculation, but brought attention of the effect to the mainstream scientific community. His 2C climate sensitivity prediction, notably done without the aid of a computer, was so accurate that even today it is within the IPCC's margin of error (though it is on the low end). Despite his efforts he was still met with skepticism by his peers though the skepticism was waning by the time he died in the 1960's.
Hansen 1988: Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model - Fast forward to the 70's and 80's in an era where quantum mechanics matured and was well accepted by science. Whereas before no one could explain why certain gas species produced a warming effect this was an era where QM could fully explain why the molecule was transparent to incoming shortwave photons but opaque to outgoing longwave photons. The scientific community began collecting large amounts of data regarding the global mean surface temperature and the realization dawned on everyone that the predictions made decades earlier not only had merit, but were likely already verifying with remarkable accuracy. This was all playing out even during the misreported 70's global cooling scare (see THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS for more information on that). This was also the era in which numerical simulations were supporting earlier predictions based on laboratory experiments and quantum electrodynamics (QED) theory. Hansen, perhaps controversially, dropped the bomb on the American public when he testified before the US Congress that there was indeed a definitive casual relationship between anthroprogenic behaviors and the global mean surface temperature.
IPCC AR5 2013: Physical Science Basis Report - This represents the culmination of more than 1,000 expert contributors, 9,000 peer reviewed publications, 50,000 expert reviews, and 2,000,000 gigabytes of data. And although carbon dioxide admittedly gets the focus of climate change scientists actually consider many elements of the climate including solar radiation, orbital parameters, volcanism, biological activity, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), greenhouse gases (CO2, halocarbons, methane, etc.), aerosols (both natural and anthroprogenic), water vapor, and much more. This report is an in depth review of the science behind climate and all of the factors that are considered. Anything and everything you want to know about the science of climate change is in this report. If you read nothing else then read this.
CSSR NCA4 2017: Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I - This represents a summary review of scientific literature regarding global climate change with a particular emphasis on impacts that can be expected here in the United States. And although the report is based on peer reviewed publications it should be understood that many aspects of the report are more speculative in nature or at least the predictions exhibit lower confidence levels. But when viewed in that context you can at least get a hint of broad trends and general patterns that can be expected in the future. Fair warning...the general consensus for those of us in the midwest is that there will be fewer Winter Storm Warnings and more Excessive Heat Warnings in the future. And while subtle hints of global warming should start becoming evident around 2020 most of us probably won't give it much thought until about 2050 or so.