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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 6, 2018 16:50:21 GMT -6
I really think the NWS is poopooing the Meramec River too much at this time. I know it has been somewhat dry... but in my experience... rainfall totals like the ones they are forecasting...over the entire basin will have a much greater impact on river levels than those being posted. That said... if the basin ends up on the low end of the range...say 2" to 3"... then I think all will be fine. However, if we end up pushing 6" down there...that river is going to flood. What do you think of the stuff coming at us this evening? |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 6, 2018 17:06:09 GMT -6
Interesting that Desoto is already filling sandbags for a crest Joachim Creek. Certainly don't blame them with all the problems they've had in the past.
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Post by jeepers on Sept 6, 2018 17:49:04 GMT -6
Ok yeah, I'm slow, but I see what you did there Snowman. Nurse joke. Yukyuk |
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Post by jeepers on Sept 6, 2018 17:50:12 GMT -6
My storm prep is going to be yelling at my husband in the basement "hey can you make sure that the sump pump is working? Thanks." |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 6, 2018 17:59:55 GMT -6
I really think the NWS is poopooing the Meramec River too much at this time. I know it has been somewhat dry... but in my experience... rainfall totals like the ones they are forecasting...over the entire basin will have a much greater impact on river levels than those being posted. That said... if the basin ends up on the low end of the range...say 2" to 3"... then I think all will be fine. However, if we end up pushing 6" down there...that river is going to flood. I agree. We got 4 inches of rain in February this year in st Clair and the river jumped over double what they are forecasting for this event. Granted there wasn’t foliage at that time but if you pee in the meremac it floods downstream anymore. We’re thinking about going ahead and emptying our basement (1st floor) out Saturday. When the river hits 21 feet our yard goes under. We’re still a little paranoid from the record flood last year. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 6, 2018 18:31:17 GMT -6
I really think the NWS is poopooing the Meramec River too much at this time. I know it has been somewhat dry... but in my experience... rainfall totals like the ones they are forecasting...over the entire basin will have a much greater impact on river levels than those being posted. That said... if the basin ends up on the low end of the range...say 2" to 3"... then I think all will be fine. However, if we end up pushing 6" down there...that river is going to flood. I completely agree...we've seen in the past that the Meramec is highly flood prone in setups like these. If we get an inch or two tomorrow and the main wave tomorrow night into Saturday drops another 3-4"+ there's going to be serious issues on the non-major rivers and creeks. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 6, 2018 18:38:02 GMT -6
So yeah I was looking at this last night and the remnant low was getting tucked under the RER of an upper jet streak aiding lift and deepening. Yep, that's when UVVs and precipitation rates really increase in response to that large-scale ascent. |
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Post by amstilost on Sept 6, 2018 18:43:47 GMT -6
OK, I am sorry (not really).....Gee, what if all of this would have been snow.  |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 6, 2018 19:03:33 GMT -6
Stuff from s IL seems to be hitting a wall
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Sept 6, 2018 21:42:21 GMT -6
But hey... this should be a drought buster for most of the dry areas of the state!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 6, 2018 22:25:11 GMT -6
I wish I could say I have a good feel for the specifics of the rainfall the next two days... but I do not.
The 00z runs have chqnged tunes again on QPF... although the large scale picture is not all that different. I think my public forecast of 2-5 is perfectly reasonable...and there is nothing out there that makes me want to nudge up or down.
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 6, 2018 22:38:07 GMT -6
The low deepening as it moves thru thinking the heaviest rain will be from Rolla and to the east along 44...and a northern band from St Charles and points north with low level forcing along the front
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 6, 2018 22:51:50 GMT -6
Conceptually that's kind of where I'm leaning as well and what I tried to verbalize on the year without drawing pretty pictures
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 7, 2018 2:14:46 GMT -6
From the way the radar looks it looks like Lucy has made her appearance well in advance of the winter months this year.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 7, 2018 4:48:16 GMT -6
From the way the radar looks it looks like Lucy has made her appearance well in advance of the winter months this year. Lol, yep. I had a 50% chance of heavy rain overnight. Guess I got the 50% no rain part.... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 7, 2018 5:53:26 GMT -6
So GFS is north, NAM is south with the heaviest rain tonight and through tomorrow. If this is a preview for the winter Lord help us all. Actually, I would just appreciate something to track during winter at this point.
GFS also has Florence making a landfall in Chesapeake Bay next week.
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Post by jeepers on Sept 7, 2018 6:00:49 GMT -6
I had a grand total of 0.02 in overnight. Then again, it could have been the sprinklers.
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 7, 2018 6:02:00 GMT -6
Well so much for having a day off due to rain today. I guess paperwork will wait another day to get done.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 7, 2018 6:13:49 GMT -6
So GFS is north, NAM is south with the heaviest rain tonight and through tomorrow. If this is a preview for the winter Lord help us all. Actually, I would just appreciate something to track during winter at this point. GFS also has Florence making a landfall in Chesapeake Bay next week. Should have mentioned this was the 06z run of the GFS pertaining to Florence. Last night's Euro has it slamming into northern SC as a major hurricane. A Florence landfall along the east coast is looking increasingly likely. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Sept 7, 2018 6:14:44 GMT -6
At what point does the "merge" between the front and the remnants of Gordon occur? Will Gordon move to the front, or the front sweep it up as it moves SE? Gordon just seems to be sitting in central Arkansas and spinning. Looks like very little northward movement at all. I thought it was supposed to be around Springfield MO. by now.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 7, 2018 7:04:58 GMT -6
At what point does the "merge" between the front and the remnants of Gordon occur? Will Gordon move to the front, or the front sweep it up as it moves SE? Gordon just seems to be sitting in central Arkansas and spinning. Looks like very little northward movement at all. I thought it was supposed to be around Springfield MO. by now. The location of the low appears to be on track with NWS guidance from the past several days. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 7, 2018 7:48:23 GMT -6
That stuff I drove through this morning is all going to the Kaskaskia basin. A good primer
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 7, 2018 8:20:42 GMT -6
In the words of the great snowman99.......MEH
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 7, 2018 8:40:14 GMT -6
Not sure how long the low is going to hang up but the trend has been to move it along a bit quicker. That coupled with the lack of rain before the "main show" may result in this not being as big of a flooding event as previously thought. We will have to see how efficient it is once things get going tonight.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 7, 2018 8:51:57 GMT -6
People on fb saying this is a huge crapper. The main show was always supposed to be late today thru tomorrow. That being said I expected to actually see something within 150 miles of me this morning.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 7, 2018 9:06:56 GMT -6
Me thinks all of the cancellations and prep work MSD was doing to stay ahead of it may have been for not. Me could be wrong though. NAM 3KM < 1"; Other NAM: 1-2".
Thoughts?
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Sept 7, 2018 9:38:24 GMT -6
There has been slow trend toward central Illinois and into Indiana with hihger amounts IMO. STL and viewing area in MO is still in the back edge of heavier precip amounts, but I think it is enough to create some uncertainty.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 7, 2018 10:13:43 GMT -6
For the most part this has gone pretty much as expected so far...although coverage was supposed to be better today up to this point. The main thrust of rainfall was always supposed to be tonight into tomorrow for us. The higher amounts were supposed to be further north up to this point and that's what has occurred.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Sept 7, 2018 10:14:50 GMT -6
Is it looking messy for football games tonight, or is it supposed to start later than that? Just trying to decide how to dress.
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Post by dschreib on Sept 7, 2018 11:01:31 GMT -6
OK, I am sorry (not really).....Gee, what if all of this would have been snow. It would have shifted 100 miles further north, I would get sleet and then dry-slotted for the remainder of the event. |
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