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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2018 6:21:09 GMT -6
This will be a very interesting case study of land interaction. The eye is about 60 percent over land and 40 percent over water at the moment. It is still hanging on to its identity and tightening up a bit. That is an insane amount of water being dumped right now.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Sept 14, 2018 6:37:18 GMT -6
Appears to be dropping south-southwest in the last few frames, could be back over water in a couple hours if that trend continued
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Post by mchafin on Sept 14, 2018 7:48:54 GMT -6
I missed it... what happened? Any video? Basically - all weather graphics were not working, other than what Chris created himself (forecast details - highs/lows, etc.) |
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Post by cardsnweather on Sept 14, 2018 8:18:20 GMT -6
Not to take the attention away from Florence but my goodness, check out Typhoon MANGKHUT!
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 8:36:47 GMT -6
Florence has stopped moving. This is really scary. With the rainfall rates up to 6 in per hour just west of the eye imagine what that is doing
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 14, 2018 8:41:08 GMT -6
Florence has stopped moving. This is really scary. With the rainfall rates up to 6 in per hour just west of the eye imagine what that is doing Very bad situation... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2018 8:43:30 GMT -6
Turns out the "crazy" solution that the GFS produced many days ago ended up being pretty damn accurate. Not in terms of intensity (always overcooked anyway), but I believe it was the first to show the stall.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 8:44:35 GMT -6
Then you have that monster band training through North Carolina further north
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 8:49:01 GMT -6
The crazy thing is when and if she gets moving again the area that is getting absolutely soaked to the west of the eyewall will then start seeing on-shore winds. This is just a nightmare
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2018 9:05:26 GMT -6
The heavy training band is similar to Harvey's which drowned Houston.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 9:09:50 GMT -6
Moved ever so slightly w over the last couple of frames
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 9:13:18 GMT -6
The heavy training band is similar to Harvey's which drowned Houston. Yup, have you checked my private message? |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 9:26:48 GMT -6
Our Storm Chaser said he went to stay in New Bern. I heard yesterday they were already making water rescues in that area. They are sitting under that monster band. I wonder how he's doing?
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
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Post by Jeke on Sept 14, 2018 9:32:35 GMT -6
Just read this tonight. For any of you who use PYKL radar app... it is no more... www.pykl3radar.com/Sure hope RadarScope does not follow suit for any reason. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 14, 2018 10:39:35 GMT -6
Just read this tonight. For any of you who use PYKL radar app... it is no more... www.pykl3radar.com/Sure hope RadarScope does not follow suit for any reason. I don't think Radarscope is going anywhere soon...I would say Pykl3's demise is due to RS's success. |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 14, 2018 10:51:30 GMT -6
I believe the record tropical rainfall in North Carolina is 24.06" (Floyd 1999). Most likely that will be broken.
The top three US records are:
60.58" Texas (Harvey 2017)
50.02" Hawaii (Lane 2018)
50.00" Hawaii (Hiki 1950)
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 14, 2018 11:20:17 GMT -6
Areas around Morehead City and New Bern and on up to the northwest are just getting raked by converging feeder bands right off the ocean.
Then there's another area of torrential rain just west of Wilmington around where the COC appears to have almost stalled again.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 11:20:25 GMT -6
I believe the record tropical rainfall in North Carolina is 24.06" (Floyd 1999). Most likely that will be broken. The top three US records are: 60.58" Texas (Harvey 2017) 50.02" Hawaii (Lane 2018) 50.00" Hawaii (Hiki 1950) are those 24-hour totals or storm totals? |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 14, 2018 11:21:10 GMT -6
I believe the record tropical rainfall in North Carolina is 24.06" (Floyd 1999). Most likely that will be broken. The top three US records are: 60.58" Texas (Harvey 2017) 50.02" Hawaii (Lane 2018) 50.00" Hawaii (Hiki 1950) are those 24-hour totals or storm totals?
Storm totals.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 11:47:41 GMT -6
are those 24-hour totals or storm totals?
Storm totals.
I imagine that North Carolina record will be broken today. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 12:05:45 GMT -6
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1252 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018
The National Weather Service in Newport has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Jones County in eastern North Carolina...
Southeastern Craven County in eastern North Carolina...
Carteret County in eastern North Carolina...
Pamlico County in eastern North Carolina...
* Until 900 PM EDT Friday.
* At 1250 PM EDT, Torrential rainfall from Hurricane Florence
rainbands continue over the warned area in areas where 7 to 14
inches of rain had already fallen. Flash flooding is already
occurring and will continue through the rest of the day as
rainbands continue to impact the area. Flooding in combination
with storm surge up the Neuse River and Newport Rivers along with
freshwater runoff is causing major flooding in addition to the
flash flooding.
An additional 3 to 5 inches are likely through this evening.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 14, 2018 12:13:36 GMT -6
Extreme storm surge impacts will continue with Hurricane Florence.
Inundation of up to 7 to 11 feet above ground with locally higher
amounts will continue near and to the north and east of the center of
the storm across the southern North Carolina coast, including the
Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, as well as adjacent streams
and bays. Catastrophic storm surge has occurred for areas along the
Neuse River, including New Bern where hundreds of water rescues have
occurred and are still underway. Moderate to significant storm surge
flooding will continue over the northern coast with inundation of 3 to
6 feet above ground.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2018 12:41:21 GMT -6
GFS has our first dip into the upper 40's possible next weekend. Probably a bit exaggerated as usual at this range but it sure sounds nice after this stretch of upper 80's which just feels too hot for mid-September. I'm so ready for cool air.
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Sept 14, 2018 12:49:10 GMT -6
GFS has our first dip into the upper 40's possible next weekend. Probably a bit exaggerated as usual at this range but it sure sounds nice after this stretch of upper 80's which just feels too hot for mid-September. I'm so ready for cool air. While the temps might be a bit exaggerated, what does timing of the front look like? |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 14, 2018 12:56:23 GMT -6
The Thursday evening 9 PM weathercast. My brother says that when it comes to electricians and plumbers the difference between a professional and amateur is the ability to compensate when there are problems. The same is true apparently true for TV meteorologists.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 14, 2018 14:57:24 GMT -6
I guess the Morehead City office went ahead and released a special sounding a few hours ago (in the feeder band), but it apparently only made it to 300mb. Still had PW of 2.6" along with incredible low level shear. Morehead City NWS is reporting 19.4" storm total so far.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2018 16:18:26 GMT -6
Hard to believe I'm watching Dave Murray's final 5pm weathercast right now.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 14, 2018 19:35:37 GMT -6
Ok, so the NHC botched the landfall intensity. We already know that. But, I went back and looked at the the track forecasts for a 5 day lead time (the maximum the NHC publishes) too. They were off with their landfall position by about 5 miles (or less). You win some and you lose some.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 14, 2018 19:46:29 GMT -6
View of I-40 near Wilmington NC this afternoon. There is pavement under there...somewhere. Photo is from the Top Sail Gazette on line
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 14, 2018 20:24:53 GMT -6
Ok, so the NHC botched the landfall intensity. We already know that. But, I went back and looked at the the track forecasts for a 5 day lead time (the maximum the NHC publishes) too. They were off with their landfall position by about 5 miles (or less). You win some and you lose some. Should have emphasized size of Wind field and surge early on...people hear category 4 down to category 2 and it's hard to convey the same message regardless of how good the track is. Also, seems about time to start categorizing storms by totality of impact vs. Simple max wind speed. A large and slow mover can do as much or more damage than a compact major hurricane that propagates quickly. |
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