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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 8, 2018 16:56:41 GMT -6
The models show the precipitation over Southern Mo falling apart and reforming NW of I70. Well... I think this is one time I’m gunna hafta disagree with what the models say this time. Certainly it will fall apart as it move east some but there’s a pretty good feed of moisture still bubbling from the south so I’d hafta say we are in for several periods of light to moderate snow tonight for several hours. Radar continues to impress. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 8, 2018 16:58:51 GMT -6
John Fuller just reported snow in Mexico, MO
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 8, 2018 17:05:19 GMT -6
The models show the precipitation over Southern Mo falling apart and reforming NW of I70. Well... I think this is one time I’m gunna hafta disagree with what the models say this time. Certainly it will fall apart as it move east some but there’s a pretty good feed of moisture still bubbling from the south so I’d hafta say we are in for several periods of light to moderate snow tonight for several hours. Radar continues to impress. It does And the steady precip is all the way down to Branson moving ENE. 700mb UVVs from the fv3 after 10pm.  Here's is 500mb UVVs around 7pm. Maybe convective feedback issues? How on Earth can we be dry slotted with that? |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 8, 2018 17:08:07 GMT -6
Despite radar returns rain has just started in the last 10 minutes here in Osage Beach. 37*
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 8, 2018 17:08:45 GMT -6
Here is the right image for H5 uvvs. At 7pm  |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 8, 2018 17:15:26 GMT -6
Well... I think this is one time I’m gunna hafta disagree with what the models say this time. Certainly it will fall apart as it move east some but there’s a pretty good feed of moisture still bubbling from the south so I’d hafta say we are in for several periods of light to moderate snow tonight for several hours. Radar continues to impress. It does And the steady precip is all the way down to Branson moving ENE. 700mb UVVs from the fv3 after 10pm. Here's is 500mb UVVs around 7pm. Maybe convective feedback issues? How on Earth can we be dry slotted with that? Right now it’s actually only breaking up some in northern Missouri lol. The forcing shown there id hafta agree. Some sort of feedback that is confusing the models because the lift boxes well with the gulf moisture spreading north right over the metro.. Likely also due to the fact they don’t have as much data from November snows which in itself are rare but all in all the models have done well with this one. Still on track to hit our record snowfall for today and tomorrow with this system lol |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 8, 2018 17:16:55 GMT -6
Flurries now breaking through at GM wentzville. 36 degrees. Began as frozen and no rain!
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 8, 2018 17:21:57 GMT -6
Here is the right image for H5 uvvs. At 7pm How? Lol no way this breaks up that bad by 7pm lol Modeks have been too far north the entire time for the snow line. That’s why I seen the scenerio unfolding close to what is happening now. I was concerned about this given the nam uses gfs ensembles and has a northern bias and seeing it was similar to the new “super gfs” it kind of made me think the snowline and system should be further south as it is happening now. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 8, 2018 17:29:49 GMT -6
Part of what might be going on with the FV3 is that's it's modeling a couple very subtle but separate kinks in the 850mb-700mb flow possibly related to the separation of the 500mb waves (one wave axis through the 4-corners and one up in the northern plains) probably leading to a couple areas of frontogenesis/convergence/lift. Saw this is some of the other models prior to today too. Probably not convective feedback. And doesn't mean it's right, just a possible explanation.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 8, 2018 17:33:25 GMT -6
Looks like a brick wall down around Rolla
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 8, 2018 17:48:15 GMT -6
Slushy wet flakes starting to mix in - Osage Beach
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 8, 2018 17:56:57 GMT -6
Well, you gyys enjoy. I am going to bed. Hopefully there is a little slush on the grass when I wake up. I am very happy with my AM forecast...and see nothing that makes me think any changes are needed. Steady as she goes.
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Post by jason0101 on Nov 8, 2018 18:02:14 GMT -6
No rain start here in Troy. All snow flurries
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 8, 2018 18:06:58 GMT -6
It's snoooooooowing! lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 8, 2018 18:09:36 GMT -6
Light snow falling here, YAY!!!!
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Post by bororug on Nov 8, 2018 18:17:14 GMT -6
Light rain falling in Desoto . Temp: 39
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 8, 2018 18:19:05 GMT -6
Moderate snow, nickel sized flakes.
Sticking to cars.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 8, 2018 18:19:39 GMT -6
Wife reports very light ~something~ coming down at Jungermann and Willott in St. Peters.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 8, 2018 18:22:52 GMT -6
Light rain on Hwy 44 in Rolla currently. Start of the precip that’s falling on the way down 44.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Nov 8, 2018 18:26:18 GMT -6
Grauple and small flakes at winghaven
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 8, 2018 18:28:47 GMT -6
There is some very impressive dry air in place.
Otherwise we would have no chance for snow.
Also colder air below 900mb is in place already.
But temps above that will have to crash.
The reports of snow already confirm that.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 8, 2018 18:39:07 GMT -6
Steady snow in St. Robert right at Hwy 44 and mile marker 163
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 8, 2018 18:56:00 GMT -6
Nada here at the moment
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 8, 2018 18:57:11 GMT -6
Impressive snowfall, took no time to start covering cars and even a slushy coating on some roads down here. Temp crashed to 32*
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 8, 2018 19:12:18 GMT -6
All snow in Rolla
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 8, 2018 19:18:32 GMT -6
Flurries have started here now
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 8, 2018 19:21:15 GMT -6
Flurries have broken out in Villa Ridge! Snow wall still looking solid!!
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 8, 2018 19:24:59 GMT -6
Still nothing in WashMO. 😔
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 8, 2018 19:26:08 GMT -6
I'm excited about the first snowfall of the season too, but I thought I'd share this really quick. The Camp Fire in Paradise California shows up REALLY well on radar and shortwave IR satellite. One of the more impressive fire signatures I've seen.   |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 8, 2018 19:34:51 GMT -6
Now it’s flurrying. ❄️
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