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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 8, 2018 11:16:19 GMT -6
One of many old forecast rules of thumb that work many times but not always… is that you must 1st forecast the high pressure to determine where the low pressure will go.
As of right now, the center of the high being way out in the Western plains argues for a low pressure to sneak up out of the Gulf of Mexico to the West of the Appalachians.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 8, 2018 11:30:21 GMT -6
One of many old forecast rules of thumb that work many times but not always… is that you must 1st forecast the high pressure to determine where the low pressure will go. As of right now, the center of the high being way out in the Western plains argues for a low pressure to sneak up out of the Gulf of Mexico to the West of the Appalachians. GFS has it east of the apps. IIRC. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 8, 2018 11:41:48 GMT -6
The large scale loading pattern isn't quite right for our region early next week...but it's darn close. It's nice to see a digging shortwave swinging through the 4 corners and trying to phase with the N stream. All signs point towards an active and potentially cold winter.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 8, 2018 12:54:54 GMT -6
Euro is still good to us Monday. Not as much of a negatively tilted system but still a decent batch of snow. So it is the Canadian and Euro vs. GFS still.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 8, 2018 13:08:17 GMT -6
Glancing at the models for early next week... some things which may influence system early next week- just my guess. Canadian/GFS/Euro seem to agree in the early going a lead jet streak will work it's way down into the 4 corners area. The GFS also develops an upper level low across Western Ontario and the associated jet with this low becomes dominant moves across the Lakes and shears out the leading jet/vorticity ... basically giving us nothing but cold.  The Canadian is noticeably weaker with the Western Ontario low... the jet is set back and allows the 4 corners low to develop and helps bring the precip north.  The Euro seems to be in the middle. Not sure I would call this phasing... it's allowing the 4 corners low to develop. If the models trend toward a bigger low up in Canada... the better chance this will be a miss for us. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 8, 2018 13:13:20 GMT -6
The captain of the duck boat that sank during a severe storm has been charged in a federal indictment.
Please click here for a link to the story. - Edited by Mchafin |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 8, 2018 13:20:43 GMT -6
HRRR/RAP trending wetter for the immediate metro over the past couple runs for tonight also brings a burst moderate snow to the northwestern suburbs.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 8, 2018 13:25:48 GMT -6
Glancing at the models for early next week... some things which may influence system early next week- just my guess. Canadian/GFS/Euro seem to agree in the early going a lead jet streak will work it's way down into the 4 corners area. The GFS also develops an upper level low across Western Ontario and the associated jet with this low becomes dominant moves across the Lakes and shears out the leading jet/vorticity ... basically giving us nothing but cold. The Canadian is noticeably weaker with the Western Ontario low... the jet is set back and allows the 4 corners low to develop and helps bring the precip north. The Euro seems to be in the middle. Not sure I would call this phasing... it's allowing the 4 corners low to develop. If the models trend toward a bigger low up in Canada... the better chance this will be a miss for us. Definitely not a full phase...but some interaction between the waves for sure. You can see the outbound jetstreak trying to backbuild a bit with the GEM/EC solutions. The N stream wave holding back allows more of a neutral tilt to develop in time for a lifting/deepening system. |
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Post by bear1 on Nov 8, 2018 13:43:49 GMT -6
The captain of the duck boat that sank during a severe storm has been charged in a federal indictment.
Please click here for a link to the story. - Edited by Mchafin Might want to delete this? It takes you to a auction page? Fixed it - Mchafin |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 8, 2018 14:00:01 GMT -6
Radar looks pretty far South with the precip
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 8, 2018 14:05:23 GMT -6
Radar looks pretty far South with the precip I was thinking the same...and some nice banded returns within the snow shield. It looks pretty nice, actually...hope it holds together! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 8, 2018 14:13:46 GMT -6
Radar looks pretty far South with the precip The 18z NAM's qpf output and best forcing aren't lining up. It has the best fgen and lift over the metro, yet its qpf max is ~50 miles further north
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Post by bear1 on Nov 8, 2018 14:52:38 GMT -6
I was just checking all of Modots live traffic cams along I-44 west & all the roads are dry into Ok.? Radar is picking up something along that route, but whatever it is, it isn't reaching the ground.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 8, 2018 14:56:41 GMT -6
I was just checking all of Modots live traffic cams along I-44 west & all the roads are dry into Ok.? Radar is picking up something along that route, but whatever it is, it isn't reaching the ground. Donut hole on KC radar just closed...plenty of dry air to be overcome for sure but that's a good thing given the marginal temps. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 8, 2018 14:57:20 GMT -6
Radar looks pretty far South with the precip The 18z NAM's qpf output and best forcing aren't lining up. It has the best fgen and lift over the metro, yet its qpf max is ~50 miles further north
Yeah that indicates right along 64/44. |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 8, 2018 15:00:40 GMT -6
I was just checking all of Modots live traffic cams along I-44 west & all the roads are dry into Ok.? Radar is picking up something along that route, but whatever it is, it isn't reaching the ground. Donut hole on KC radar just closed...plenty of dry air to be overcome for sure but that's a good thing given the marginal temps. I was trying to view the cameras around Joplin as there looks to be some decent returns there, but the cameras were not functioning. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 8, 2018 15:01:59 GMT -6
Radar is looking better than expected to me and that freeze line is make good progress as it wet-bulbs!
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 8, 2018 15:04:32 GMT -6
Snowing in KC!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 8, 2018 15:06:41 GMT -6
The short-term models show a quick changeover around 9-10 pm.
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Post by bear1 on Nov 8, 2018 15:18:30 GMT -6
Donut hole on KC radar just closed...plenty of dry air to be overcome for sure but that's a good thing given the marginal temps. I was trying to view the cameras around Joplin as there looks to be some decent returns there, but the cameras were not functioning. I jusT checked & they're working for me? Real time cams at mm4 & the Mo/Ok line show it's still dry there. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 8, 2018 15:26:43 GMT -6
The captain of the duck boat that sank during a severe storm has been charged in a federal indictment.
Please click here for a link to the story. - Edited by Mchafin Might want to delete this? It takes you to a auction page? Fixed it - Mchafin Thanks Mchafin, not sure what happened there. I'm positive I pasted the right link in the URL box, certainly no auction site links...wasn't even on one...weird. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 8, 2018 15:51:32 GMT -6
Just finished a 4 mile run And the sky overhead sure looks snowy to me.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 8, 2018 15:57:25 GMT -6
Just finished a 4 mile run And the sky overhead sure looks snowy to me. Been thinking the same thing a good part of the day. |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 8, 2018 15:58:28 GMT -6
Just finished a 4 mile run And the sky overhead sure looks snowy to me. It feels like snow |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 8, 2018 16:20:50 GMT -6
Nws says from vichy to stl and north may start as snow.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 8, 2018 16:23:02 GMT -6
The southern area of precip shield seems much more pronounced than modeled.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 8, 2018 16:31:54 GMT -6
Be back in a little bit........gonna go load up the trucks for the next couple days. 😊
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 8, 2018 16:34:45 GMT -6
The models show the precipitation over Southern Mo falling apart and reforming NW of I70.
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Post by pbc12871 on Nov 8, 2018 16:37:08 GMT -6
Sounds about right.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 8, 2018 16:56:04 GMT -6
FWIW the FV3GFS has the current precipitation modeled well and the best lift axis much further south than the short term models this evening with a steady shot of snow along and North of 44/64.
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