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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 1, 2018 9:59:23 GMT -6
I really really really hope this pattern returns again when the time is right!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 1, 2018 10:23:51 GMT -6
The radar even has the audacity to have that banded look to it lol... Some decent mid-level frontogenesis in play for sure with a somewhat coupled jet structure. Would love to see this setup re-emerge during the winter... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 1, 2018 10:57:38 GMT -6
Flakes are probably making it down to ~5000ft right now. This is a beautiful deformation zone. Would be even more beautiful if it was snow and not rain lol
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 1, 2018 11:10:45 GMT -6
High-resolution polarimetric X-band weather radar... Is this the "experimental" radar I have seen in the news at NOAA lately? If so, what does it bring to the table? Anyone?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 1, 2018 11:47:55 GMT -6
This is THE most perfect non-Winter storm...Winter storm track... I think I've ever seen. This is the way text books describe a perfect storm in STL.. Except that it's rain
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 1, 2018 11:56:31 GMT -6
No joke Chris. I don't think I've ever seen that kind of banding that wasn't snow.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 1, 2018 15:02:19 GMT -6
For snow this would have been a major Missouri/Illinois event.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 1, 2018 16:09:02 GMT -6
GFS reloads with same kind of scenario for mondayish iirc. Then things kind of take a break after that...maybe some flurries or light rain Wednesday night/Thursday morning according to 12 gfs. Longer term, we see some pretty impactful pacific systems rolling on shore. We'll have to let them take their turn before arctic air takes hold...beyond the gfs forecast timeframe.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 1, 2018 18:50:13 GMT -6
One thing I noticed is that we are starting to load up some pretty cold air in northern Canada in the long range...some -20c isotherms were showing up on the GFS earlier today.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 1, 2018 18:53:58 GMT -6
High-resolution polarimetric X-band weather radar... Is this the "experimental" radar I have seen in the news at NOAA lately? If so, what does it bring to the table? Anyone? Where did you see that in the news? <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.319999999999936px; height: 2.9399999999999977px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_74584500" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1303px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_85322497" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 88px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_96967228" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1303px; top: 88px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_33691111" scrolling="no"></iframe> X-band weather radars have been around a while. But in order for them to be useful operationally you'd probably have to have A LOT of them...along with specialized networked post processors to composite the data. The problem is that radar at that wavelength is greatly attenuated by water in the atmosphere. These radars can't "see" through rain like the S-band NEXRAD radars and essentially can't see through thunderstorms at all. The advantage is that X-band radars can be faster, smaller, cheaper, and mobile. And they can provide rich detail. Mizzou runs one with public access to the data. There's at least a couple other notable research groups that run mobile ones: DOW and RaXPol. I haven't seen anything about NOAA though, but I could have just missed it... |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 1, 2018 19:06:20 GMT -6
High-resolution polarimetric X-band weather radar... Is this the "experimental" radar I have seen in the news at NOAA lately? If so, what does it bring to the table? Anyone? Where did you see that in the news? <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.319999999999936px; height: 2.9399999999999977px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_74584500" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1303px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_85322497" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 88px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_96967228" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1303px; top: 88px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_33691111" scrolling="no"></iframe> X-band weather radars have been around a while. But in order for them to be useful operationally you'd probably have to have A LOT of them...along with specialized networked post processors to composite the data. The problem is that radar at that wavelength is greatly attenuated by water in the atmosphere. These radars can't "see" through rain like the S-band NEXRAD radars and essentially can't see through thunderstorms at all. The advantage is that X-band radars can be faster, smaller, cheaper, and mobile. And they can provide rich detail. Mizzou runs one with public access to the data. There's at least a couple other notable research groups that run mobile ones: DOW and RaXPol. I haven't seen anything about NOAA though, but I could have just missed it... I wonder if you are thinking about the CASA radar network? I did a story on it several years back... www.google.com/amp/s/fox2now.com/2015/04/30/groundbreaking-radar-network-in-dallas-has-local-ties/amp/ |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 1, 2018 19:06:57 GMT -6
One thing I noticed is that we are starting to load up some pretty cold air in northern Canada in the long range...some -20c isotherms were showing up on the GFS earlier today. I was noticing Central Alaska (Fairbanks area) is getting some consistent near zero cold that isn't hitting and then releasing. Been there a week already and is forecast to stay for another week. Also getting some snow on snow accumulation. And with those temps, lower sun angle and shortening days it won't be going anywhere either |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 1, 2018 19:42:18 GMT -6
Where did you see that in the news? X-band weather radars have been around a while. But in order for them to be useful operationally you'd probably have to have A LOT of them...along with specialized networked post processors to composite the data. The problem is that radar at that wavelength is greatly attenuated by water in the atmosphere. These radars can't "see" through rain like the S-band NEXRAD radars and essentially can't see through thunderstorms at all. The advantage is that X-band radars can be faster, smaller, cheaper, and mobile. And they can provide rich detail. Mizzou runs one with public access to the data. There's at least a couple other notable research groups that run mobile ones: DOW and RaXPol. I haven't seen anything about NOAA though, but I could have just missed it... I wonder if you are thinking about the CASA radar network? I did a story on it several years back... www.google.com/amp/s/fox2now.com/2015/04/30/groundbreaking-radar-network-in-dallas-has-local-ties/amp/Ah that's right, I was thinking about CASA and for some reason thought those were C-band. But no those are in fact X-band. Cool idea too. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 1, 2018 19:57:49 GMT -6
Big snows in British Columbia is one thing you look at for a blue norther type pattern- but don't think I've seen one in November.  |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 1, 2018 21:15:31 GMT -6
Ha, 18z FV3 day 7...I don't think so.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 1, 2018 22:27:07 GMT -6
That's a robust trough and low pressure system showing up on the 0Z GFS for Monday into Tuesday morning. That's a 991mb low in Missouri.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 1, 2018 22:29:00 GMT -6
If that system early next week were to eject out a bit further north with the right timing and enough diurnal warming we might be talking about some strong/severe storms. Although the short wavelength between these shortwaves is inhibiting robust return flow out the Gulf, the ECMWF brings the 60F isodrosotherm (dewpoint) close to I-44 with absolutely diabolic helicity in the St. Louis area (like up to 1000 m2/s2) and plenty of convection starting in AR/MO/IL. However, as it stands right now, with the spread in the deterministic runs of ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET the timing, location, and other specifics would suggest a low probability / high uncertainty of that particular outcome in our area. Early next week will be interesting... going to be some big wind involved somewhere close. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 1, 2018 23:22:58 GMT -6
Ha, 18z FV3 day 7...I don't think so. That's one hell of a push of cold air it has. The "old" GFS has a good surge of arctic air around that time to. Lots of strong southern lows showing up on both runs |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 2, 2018 3:25:37 GMT -6
Where did you see that in the news? <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.319999999999936px; height: 2.9399999999999977px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_74584500" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1303px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_85322497" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 88px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_96967228" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1303px; top: 88px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_33691111" scrolling="no"></iframe> X-band weather radars have been around a while. But in order for them to be useful operationally you'd probably have to have A LOT of them...along with specialized networked post processors to composite the data. The problem is that radar at that wavelength is greatly attenuated by water in the atmosphere. These radars can't "see" through rain like the S-band NEXRAD radars and essentially can't see through thunderstorms at all. The advantage is that X-band radars can be faster, smaller, cheaper, and mobile. And they can provide rich detail. Mizzou runs one with public access to the data. There's at least a couple other notable research groups that run mobile ones: DOW and RaXPol. I haven't seen anything about NOAA though, but I could have just missed it... I wonder if you are thinking about the CASA radar network? I did a story on it several years back... www.google.com/amp/s/fox2now.com/2015/04/30/groundbreaking-radar-network-in-dallas-has-local-ties/amp/Seen something on NOAAs Twitter yesterday. Did a search for experimental radar for weather and that the one I shared was the first to pop up. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2018 5:30:27 GMT -6
Seen something on NOAAs Twitter yesterday. Did a search for experimental radar for weather and that the one I shared was the first to pop up. Ah ok, I found it. It's called the Advanced Technology Demonstrator and I think it's being installed in Norman Oklahoma. It's a phased array radar so it can be scanned/steered electronically really fast. Didn't see any specs, but whereas the current mechanical NEXRAD radars can take several minutes to complete a full 360* volume scan this one could potentially finish much much faster. And it can be steered to focus on only one area too...like a storm. Not sure if it applies to this one, but some phased array radars can generate multiple beams simultaneously too. And it's S-band like NEXRAD so it doesn't have those X-band limitations I mentioned earlier which means you wouldn't need a gazillion of them to be operationally useful. Also since it's electronically scanned there's less parts to break...seems like at any given time there's one or more NEXRAD radars that are down, often for expensive mechanical problems. Although I suspect an operational version may still need some mechanics since the field of view is only 90* and I bet the gain at the edges is low anyway. www.nssl.noaa.gov/tools/radar/atd/ |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 2, 2018 7:11:46 GMT -6
So darn foggy here that it registered in the electronic rain gauge....... .02”
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 2, 2018 7:22:48 GMT -6
Seen something on NOAAs Twitter yesterday. Did a search for experimental radar for weather and that the one I shared was the first to pop up. Ah ok, I found it. It's called the Advanced Technology Demonstrator and I think it's being installed in Norman Oklahoma. It's a phased array radar so it can be scanned/steered electronically really fast. Didn't see any specs, but whereas the current mechanical NEXRAD radars can take several minutes to complete a full 360* volume scan this one could potentially finish much much faster. And it can be steered to focus on only one area too...like a storm. Not sure if it applies to this one, but some phased array radars can generate multiple beams simultaneously too. And it's S-band like NEXRAD so it doesn't have those X-band limitations I mentioned earlier which means you wouldn't need a gazillion of them to be operationally useful. Also since it's electronically scanned there's less parts to break...seems like at any given time there's one or more NEXRAD radars that are down, often for expensive mechanical problems. Although I suspect an operational version may still need some mechanics since the field of view is only 90* and I bet the gain at the edges is low anyway. www.nssl.noaa.gov/tools/radar/atd/COOL! If it is "Phased Array" it is similar to what the Navy uses on Aegis ships. Something I am familiar with. This will be awesome to see the picture it provides. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 2, 2018 7:38:37 GMT -6
Attachment DeletedHere's a tweet from the NWS St Louis about how much snow yesterday's rain would have been. 
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2018 8:36:27 GMT -6
That map does not indicate the Union hole or sleet contamination for the southern communities and is therefore invalid.
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Post by rb1108 on Nov 2, 2018 9:09:36 GMT -6
Bastardi says it will be a "good" winter (a long, cold winter with snow).
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 10:28:00 GMT -6
12Z GFS is fun for Next Thursday...  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 10:55:31 GMT -6
12Z GFS is fun for Next Thursday... 14th of November not bad either for the southeastern counties. Pipedreams for sure but nice to see some decent snowstorms in the models even more so just shy of a week away. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 2, 2018 10:56:22 GMT -6
We are taking the scenic route to Giant City State Park tomorrow. I guess can't resist these drives in the fall. Then next weekend we are heading down to Table Rock Lake and I hope there is still some color left there. I love this time of year
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2018 11:16:31 GMT -6
12Z GFS is fun for Next Thursday... Yes...yes it is. Unlikely but also not impossible especially being 5/6 days out. There have been hints of something developing for days now. Now there is an even stronger temp gradient and a decent system. Ya never know... Maybe someone can help me out with this one...I remember in the late 90's we had a good 3-5 inch snow across the area on I believe November 13th. Does anyone remember that system? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2018 11:19:13 GMT -6
We are taking the scenic route to Giant City State Park tomorrow. I guess can't resist these drives in the fall. Then next weekend we are heading down to Table Rock Lake and I hope there is still some color left there. I love this time of year May be a little past peak. Wife and I had some really nice colors starting to pop last weekend on our trip to Van Buren/Current River. Also drove through Peck Ranch viewing the elk and the evening light was really illuminating the yellows. The drive down and back was neat because you could see the difference in phases as you changed elevation through the hill country/Ozark mountains. I freaking love it down there. |
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