|
|
Post by Tilawn on Oct 31, 2018 11:20:15 GMT -6
.62” since midnight.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 31, 2018 11:21:58 GMT -6
A tad interested in Friday's shortwave/clipper. It looks pretty stout and tries to close off as it passes through. Temperatures aloft look to be freezing or below with surface temps in the lower/mid 40s during the afternoon I can't rule out some grauple/sleet or small hail if some stronger updrafts can be realized especially near the center of the shortwave and just to the right of.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 31, 2018 11:35:05 GMT -6
Looks like the rain should hold off long enough tonight to allow trick or treaters to have some fun. Definitely looks and feels like Halloween out
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 31, 2018 11:41:44 GMT -6
On a side note, could see some tornadoes tonight down in Louisiana. SPC has a hatched sig area there
"The more substantial supercell/tornado threat is expected overnight
into parts of LA (and possibly MS) within the moist sector, and
where low-level shear becomes the strongest. A strong tornado or
two will be possible, especially with any pre-frontal supercell
clusters, where effective SRH increases to greater than 400 m2/s2 in
a moist environment with sufficient surface-based buoyancy.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 31, 2018 14:03:47 GMT -6
Nice gloomy looking evening shaping up
|
|
|
|
Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 31, 2018 14:11:19 GMT -6
Just read an email from Kevin Deitsch reference the introduction of Snow Squall warnings being added to the weather products.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 31, 2018 14:24:40 GMT -6
I remember Halloweens when I was a kid and the trees were pretty much bare. Now the trend is the best colors are the last week of October into early November. That's what it was last year also.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 31, 2018 14:42:06 GMT -6
Looks like a tornadic cell entering the Houston Metro
|
|
|
|
Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Oct 31, 2018 15:25:45 GMT -6
I remember Halloweens when I was a kid and the trees were pretty much bare. Now the trend is the best colors are the last week of October into early November. That's what it was last year also. Also filling the plastic bags that looked like pumpkins with leaves |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Oct 31, 2018 15:30:10 GMT -6
One thing is for sure...it's very active. The forecast has likely rai. Chances every other day. If it was winter and cold and the forecast had snow in it like that I'd poop myself. Especially as the chances got lower and lower the closer we got. Lol
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 31, 2018 15:58:13 GMT -6
Southeast Metro looks wet for Halloween.
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Oct 31, 2018 16:22:34 GMT -6
If this rain was only in late Nov and colder!
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Oct 31, 2018 18:18:33 GMT -6
If this rain was only in late Nov and colder! Synoptically it's perfect for a warning level snow along and North of 64/44/55. Best about 25 miles West of St Louis county |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Oct 31, 2018 20:32:26 GMT -6
Great to see you back Friv just in time for winter!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Oct 31, 2018 23:08:15 GMT -6
Man that radar would be an orgasmic sight if it was all snow.  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 31, 2018 23:24:27 GMT -6
Man that radar would be an orgasmic sight if it was all snow. This would be a perfect setup for a good 5-8" of snow if it were 20* colder. Lets hope this is a pattern that repeats heading into winter |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 1, 2018 0:31:04 GMT -6
GYB method works pretty well in rain too... nailed this event...as did the Euro...GFS not so much.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Nov 1, 2018 3:06:32 GMT -6
Man that radar would be an orgasmic sight if it was all snow. If this was 2 or 3 months later it would probably be a 34* Rainer 😊 |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 1, 2018 4:38:29 GMT -6
You can see the def. zone getting its act together to our sw. This would have been the ideal perfect winter storm. So sad this didn't happen in winter..AND be cold enough. Let's hope we get this in a month or 2.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Nov 1, 2018 5:46:07 GMT -6
GYB method works pretty well in rain too... nailed this event...as did the Euro...GFS not so much. Yep, looks like 850mb low will track just a bit south Cape Girardeau...the benchmark track for axis of heaviest precip close to I-44. Radar seems to match up fairly well with that. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Nov 1, 2018 6:05:26 GMT -6
If that system early next week were to eject out a bit further north with the right timing and enough diurnal warming we might be talking about some strong/severe storms. Although the short wavelength between these shortwaves is inhibiting robust return flow out the Gulf, the ECMWF brings the 60F isodrosotherm (dewpoint) close to I-44 with absolutely diabolic helicity in the St. Louis area (like up to 1000 m2/s2) and plenty of convection starting in AR/MO/IL. However, as it stands right now, with the spread in the deterministic runs of ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET the timing, location, and other specifics would suggest a low probability / high uncertainty of that particular outcome in our area.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 1, 2018 6:11:42 GMT -6
National radar shot is looking very classic. I don't know if we saw anything like this last year at all.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 1, 2018 6:39:41 GMT -6
National radar shot is looking very classic. I don't know if we saw anything like this last year at all. I don't think we've seen these classic systems for a couple years. At least not with any regularity. Really looking forward to this winter. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Nov 1, 2018 6:53:13 GMT -6
National radar shot is looking very classic. I don't know if we saw anything like this last year at all. I don't think we've seen these classic systems for a couple years. At least not with any regularity. Really looking forward to this winter. Seems like over the last few years we've seen patterns that featured 2 strong mid-level jet branches. This makes it harder to generate large scale ascent and for storms to spin in the southern branch and/or get the cold connection. Or we've seen fast flat flow in the upper levels that doesn't allow strong lift to concentrate much of anywhere. Right now, more or less, we're seeing a single dominant amplified jet. Will we see a recurrence of this pattern in the Winter? I hope so. However, I do like the idea Chris mentioned of above normal temps and much above normal snowfall...I've seen at least one seasonal outlook with that exact idea in our area in fact. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 1, 2018 7:03:40 GMT -6
The weather station showing on the big screen TV is interesting, Chris
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 1, 2018 9:28:35 GMT -6
Nice to be in the dry slot. Not sure I'd say that if this was the winter system
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 1, 2018 9:32:07 GMT -6
Deformation is going gangbusters in Southwest Missouri. I would almost have to think there's some melting being caught by the radar since the heaviest returns pretty much ring the radar.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 1, 2018 9:43:56 GMT -6
Deformation is going gangbusters in Southwest Missouri. I would almost have to think there's some melting being caught by the radar since the heaviest returns pretty much ring the radar. No doubt there's an elevated melting layer. Cloud tops continue to cool across the deformation...pretty robust mid-level system. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 1, 2018 9:44:51 GMT -6
The radar even has the audacity to have that banded look to it lol...
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Nov 1, 2018 9:51:19 GMT -6
Deformation is going gangbusters in Southwest Missouri. I would almost have to think there's some melting being caught by the radar since the heaviest returns pretty much ring the radar. No doubt there's an elevated melting layer. Cloud tops continue to cool across the deformation...pretty robust mid-level system. Cooling nicely at that
|
|
