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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 2, 2018 17:03:23 GMT -6
Looks like we got snow in the forecast.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 2, 2018 17:08:03 GMT -6
Happy birthday, Chris!
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Post by mchafin on Nov 2, 2018 17:08:59 GMT -6
Tis the season for digital snowfall. 18z GFS continues the threat. Ha. Looking at the off-hours. Gotta love this time of year!!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 2, 2018 17:13:19 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris!
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 2, 2018 17:29:07 GMT -6
Seeing reports of sleet covering cars and pics on facebook?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 2, 2018 17:43:57 GMT -6
Seeing reports of sleet covering cars and pics on facebook? More likely pea sized hail |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 2, 2018 17:45:29 GMT -6
GFS drops the -20*C h85 isotherm across the border next week...very impressive airmass for this early. Let's hope this isn't the case of the source region getting scoured out too early like several years back.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 18:10:23 GMT -6
GFS drops the -20*C h85 isotherm across the border next week...very impressive airmass for this early. Let's hope this isn't the case of the source region getting scoured out too early like several years back. Nope. Not likely. PV is one of the strongest in several years which will allow cold air to build across the north, but also means that after the next few weeks we'll see our pattern relax and become milder for much of the latter third of November (last 5 to 10 days or so) with December the first 3 weeks continuing this pattern of mild up until the Holidays when the PV should weaken (SSW Event or Similar?) Allowing arctic to near polar airmass to dump right into our area with several clippers and maybe an overrunning event or 2 starting a week after New Years and lasting through February with another break in the last week of February into very early March. Things could get going then for a few weeks up until the end of March, 1st Week of April. Only thing I'm concerned about that's preventing me from calling a near historic Winter is that the QBO has flipped to a positive state and the ROJ (Rule of Japan) is showin ridging much of the season which tends to lead to higher upper level heights here (though not always). Looking at all the pluses and minuses however I think we'll end up in a decent spot, certainly more impressive then the last few Winters especially in the snow department. I'm liking the idea of between 20 to 30 inches this season which will sound like a lot compared to previous few years but is still well above normal which is 14 to 18 inches a year for most of us. |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 2, 2018 19:03:48 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris, I sure hope this early "digital snow" is a sign of lost sleep model surfing/tracking this year.  Chris, it's great watching you at 4am as I get ready for work. Hopefully, you will be bracing the 44 corridor for the first snow next week. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 2, 2018 19:04:56 GMT -6
Oh boy! Came back on the blog and seen we were at a sharp 9 pages in. Thought maybe it was the hail talk from storms earlier. Nope we are talking digital snow! It's the new trend this season! Lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 2, 2018 19:05:09 GMT -6
Happy birthday Chris!
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Nov 2, 2018 19:38:03 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris! Hope you are off the weekend to celebrate!
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2018 20:43:15 GMT -6
The highest snowfall from a single storm in November at KSTL was 10.3" on 11/5-11/6 1951.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 2, 2018 20:55:40 GMT -6
I find it to be strangely satisfying the level headedness with which everyone is approaching the digital snowfall for next week. I don't hear anyone on this board going overboard with excitement yet which is very good. In the past I think the ferver would have ramped up rapidly already but we've all been down this road Before. With that in mind, I don't need to remind folks in here that we saw somewhat similar setups during the season last year where these front systems showed up many days in advance only to get squashed South by the cold air. But last year was the year of sheered out systems and so far this year we have had no trouble holding on to short waves in the flow so it may just be that the GFS and the euro compromise may not be far from reality. Every year is a little different and maybe this is the year we cash in. It is an interesting system to watch… but it is far from a storm of interest yet.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 2, 2018 21:29:39 GMT -6
We’ll wait on you, Chris! When you get excited, then we will!
After all, yous da man!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 2, 2018 22:43:32 GMT -6
NAO actually flips negative albeit weakly by the middle of next week, but then turns slightly positive beyond that. EPO is currently positive, turning negative next week. PNA is negative all week next week. Midnight models still have our storm in case anybody is wondering. I am concerned about boundary level temps. I think Glenn's going forecast handles the situation well. If I had to get fancy at this long lead, it's probably a cold light rain with a transition over to sleet, then briefly snow scenario.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 2, 2018 22:51:51 GMT -6
Given that this winter, IMO, should be relatively snowy than we've seen for several years (not even considering what happens the next two weeks - my number is 24), I'm going to ask the question that I asked last year - what is a good source for Euro - I'd be willing to pay a subscription. my apologies for asking the question again. I was never excited about last year, so I never subscribed.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 2, 2018 22:56:21 GMT -6
Given that this winter, IMO, should be relatively snowy than we've seen for several years (not even considering what happens the next two weeks - my number is 24), I'm going to ask the question that I asked last year - what is a good source for Euro - I'd be willing to pay a subscription. my apologies for asking the question again. I was never excited about last year, so I never subscribed. Weather.us has it for free |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 2, 2018 23:01:44 GMT -6
Ideal fog night... be careful.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 2, 2018 23:13:01 GMT -6
GFS has 40" of snow in central KS this run.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 2, 2018 23:18:24 GMT -6
GFS has 40" of snow in central KS this run. Seems a bit conservative... |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 2, 2018 23:20:26 GMT -6
00Z FV3 hammers STL...
Euro should be fascinating.
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 3, 2018 0:40:31 GMT -6
I find it to be strangely satisfying the level headedness with which everyone is approaching the digital snowfall for next week. I don't hear anyone on this board going overboard with excitement yet which is very good. In the past I think the ferver would have ramped up rapidly already but we've all been down this road Before. With that in mind, I don't need to remind folks in here that we saw somewhat similar setups during the season last year where these front systems showed up many days in advance only to get squashed South by the cold air. But last year was the year of sheered out systems and so far this year we have had no trouble holding on to short waves in the flow so it may just be that the GFS and the euro compromise may not be far from reality. Every year is a little different and maybe this is the year we cash in. It is an interesting system to watch… but it is far from a storm of interest yet. So when will you be interested in this possible system? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 3, 2018 1:02:36 GMT -6
00z euro is more of a Kansas, Iowa, and northwestern Missouri storm...
STL would benefit from a flatter wave instead of a cutting storm it would appear.
Still pretty interesting stuff so early in the season.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 3, 2018 3:41:40 GMT -6
Still concerned about this cooler fall and now chances for snow so early in the season that we are using up our chances for a this to happen later when the time is actually right for it. Just seems like the seasons are off a bit nowadays in accordance to the calendar if that makes sense. Hopefully Im wrong and my concerns aren’t nothing more then that though
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 3, 2018 7:19:18 GMT -6
Temps around freezing here this morning, with areas of fog. Almost freezing fog. Heh
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 3, 2018 8:04:00 GMT -6
My guess for the late week system is a rain ending as a possible dusting of snow here. Better accumulations across northern MO
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 3, 2018 8:41:07 GMT -6
Hannibal forecast from NWS is calling for a rain/snow possibility beginning Thursday day and continuing in to Friday. Though the chances are below 50% at this point
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 3, 2018 8:54:24 GMT -6
Still hail accumulation at my clients place this morning  |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Nov 3, 2018 9:47:58 GMT -6
The fog was terrible this morning. My buddy and I got drawn for the Pelican Island hunt this weekend. It pretty much requires a pre dawn crossing of the Missouri River to get here. We started across from the West Alton side, but went back because you couldn't see 20 feet in front of the boat. Waited until after daybreak to run across. And to top it off. I haven't been impressed with the hunt.
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Chris, it's great watching you at 4am as I get ready for work. Hopefully, you will be bracing the 44 corridor for the first snow next week.
