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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 3, 2018 9:56:04 GMT -6
I seem to have forgotten how slowly models churn out when you're actually anxious to see what they'll bring next.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 3, 2018 9:59:39 GMT -6
things could be interesting for kansas, nebraska, and iowa over the next couple weeks with this pattern. this, imo, makes me think we will see some meaningful winter weather as we head into winter.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 3, 2018 10:15:39 GMT -6
gfs still rain changing to a few inches of snow here..
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 3, 2018 10:19:46 GMT -6
gfs still rain changing to a few inches of snow here.. Yea, Canadian on board as well. I'm trying not to get intrigued but its hard. If it still shows this Monday at 12z I'll be excited. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 3, 2018 11:49:54 GMT -6
Supergfs says no way.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 3, 2018 12:02:04 GMT -6
Yeah it has nothing at all. Develops an eastern storm.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 3, 2018 12:42:27 GMT -6
euro continues with more wound up northern solution. rain to cold
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 3, 2018 13:25:32 GMT -6
It's still in the highly unlikely category in my mind. Hard to really know what to expect in terms of how the models handle things this early in the season.
One thing seems pretty clear...opening weekend of deer season looks quite brisk for my fellow hunters.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Nov 3, 2018 13:40:12 GMT -6
Certainly is a very wet partly cloudy out here in a tree in Ste Gen county
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 3, 2018 14:01:02 GMT -6
euro continues with more wound up northern solution. rain to cold It brings some very cold air in right behind the system though. We would be falling into the upper teens Saturday morning |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 3, 2018 14:02:52 GMT -6
Given that this winter, IMO, should be relatively snowy than we've seen for several years (not even considering what happens the next two weeks - my number is 24), I'm going to ask the question that I asked last year - what is a good source for Euro - I'd be willing to pay a subscription. my apologies for asking the question again. I was never excited about last year, so I never subscribed. I just resubscribed to AccuWx Pro. Its $20 a month and has all the model data you could ever want. WxBell is also another good paid subscription option |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 3, 2018 14:11:58 GMT -6
weathermodels.com 10 bucks a month..dr maue models
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 3, 2018 14:49:09 GMT -6
Just drove from St Peters to 141 and 40. Intermittent drips of rain up to a full showe along the way. Must be a classic car show somewhere. Got a laugh out of the poor older couple in the 30s style hot rod with no roof trying to stay dry and warm
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 3, 2018 16:09:11 GMT -6
18z gfs looks like what we went through all last winter (northern stream crushes the energy and we get nothing). Just one run but very possible scenario.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 3, 2018 16:34:24 GMT -6
18z gfs looks like what we went through all last winter (northern stream crushes the energy and we get nothing). Just one run but very possible scenario. I was thinking earlier today about how the setup somewhat resembled last year with the N stream and dense arctic air squashing any S stream amplification. But so far that has not been the trend at all so I'm reluctant to jump on a non-event. |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 3, 2018 16:36:36 GMT -6
It's early yet, people! We have many months of winter to enjoy!
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 3, 2018 16:38:12 GMT -6
18z gfs looks like what we went through all last winter (northern stream crushes the energy and we get nothing). Just one run but very possible scenario. I was thinking earlier today about how the setup somewhat resembled last year with the N stream and dense arctic air squashing any S stream amplification. But so far that has not been the trend at all so I'm reluctant to jump on a non-event. The most recent storm we had would argue for this for sure. Considering the disparity with how the euro (12z) is handling the event and the fact that we're 5 days out... we're certainly still in limbo. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 3, 2018 17:08:15 GMT -6
I was thinking earlier today about how the setup somewhat resembled last year with the N stream and dense arctic air squashing any S stream amplification. But so far that has not been the trend at all so I'm reluctant to jump on a non-event. The most recent storm we had would argue for this for sure. Considering the disparity with how the euro (12z) is handling the event and the fact that we're 5 days out... we're certainly still in limbo. The last system came in quite a bit further north than the models predicted just a day or two out. Of course that one didn’t have an arctic airmass pressing down behind it |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 3, 2018 17:09:47 GMT -6
It's early yet, people! We have many months of winter to enjoy! That’s what we said all last winter, until there was no winter left! |
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Post by pbc12871 on Nov 3, 2018 17:10:23 GMT -6
Lol. So it begins.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 3, 2018 17:12:46 GMT -6
Haha, yea it does. About a month and a half before I expected it to. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing. |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 3, 2018 17:30:24 GMT -6
It’s all in good fun guys.
It is funny though - the first sight of digital snowfall awakens folks from their slumber. Here’s to a fun season of talking one another off the ledge.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2018 17:34:53 GMT -6
I don't need to remind folks in here that we saw somewhat similar setups during the season last year where these front systems showed up many days in advance only to get squashed South by the cold air. But last year was the year of sheered out systems and so far this year we have had no trouble holding on to short waves in the flow so it may just be that the GFS and the euro compromise may not be far from reality. Every year is a little different and maybe this is the year we cash in. It is an interesting system to watch… but it is far from a storm of interest yet. Yup... |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 3, 2018 18:28:59 GMT -6
I find it to be strangely satisfying the level headedness with which everyone is approaching the digital snowfall for next week. I don't hear anyone on this board going overboard with excitement yet which is very good. In the past I think the ferver would have ramped up rapidly already but we've all been down this road Before. With that in mind, I don't need to remind folks in here that we saw somewhat similar setups during the season last year where these front systems showed up many days in advance only to get squashed South by the cold air. But last year was the year of sheered out systems and so far this year we have had no trouble holding on to short waves in the flow so it may just be that the GFS and the euro compromise may not be far from reality. Every year is a little different and maybe this is the year we cash in. It is an interesting system to watch… but it is far from a storm of interest yet. This is great Chris, Level headedness?  ?? This blog started 10/25 and we had just under 7 pages when BWG mentioned the 12z GFS on 11/2... and we have over 3 pages since  I would say we are just a tad excited.  |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 3, 2018 18:31:54 GMT -6
Also, the GFS in particular has had a bias of being too heavy and broad with precip in the 5-10 day range with those sprawled out messy waves.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 3, 2018 19:07:28 GMT -6
A blend of the EPS and GEFS support a low impact event in northern MO or southern IA but with higher odds in northwest MO. It's certainly possible that we could see our first flakes here, but there's not a lot of confidence either way on that yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 3, 2018 20:02:02 GMT -6
I haven't been too jazzed about next week's system except for the cold air behind it...that looks legit. Any frozen precip will probably be light and on the tail end here.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 3, 2018 20:05:47 GMT -6
It’s only November, barely! I’m not all shook up yet!
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Post by dschreib on Nov 3, 2018 20:33:16 GMT -6
Blues are lifeless again tonight after showing signs of getting out of the funk the past couple games. Since we fire coaches around holidays, Yeo is packing his bags either on Veterans Day or Thanksgiving.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 3, 2018 21:51:54 GMT -6
Blues are lifeless again tonight after showing signs of getting out of the funk the past couple games. Since we fire coaches around holidays, Yeo is packing his bags either on Veterans Day or Thanksgiving. Yea, really sad. I had hope after the last couple games but wow I mean they just didn't show the will to play from the first puck drop. How can it look so different from night to night? |
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