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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 14:24:22 GMT -6
Can't believe this is only 30 hour away.
Expect winter storm watches and a 3-6" advisory forecast over SWIL
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 14:24:34 GMT -6
Jackpot is very close to inside 270.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 14:25:50 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 14:25:53 GMT -6
My concern is that this thing will open up a little too quickly and produce the dry slot Chris alluded to. Nam is starting to show that. Admittedly I'm being a bit picky at the moment because I want the jackpot.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 14:25:58 GMT -6
Here is Cobb method output from the GFS. The cummulative SR is 9:1 on this event at the airport for a total of 1.8". This isn't your typical mid latitude cyclone either. Thermal profiles aren't going to evolve like what we're used to. In fact the system may have WAA on the northwest and CAA on the southeast at times. Interesting the Cobb method is so low. The Kuchera ratios are around 11-12:1 I noticed the Cobb method yielded higher totals than the Kuchera method on the Euro charts on AccuWx. Figuring out ratios on this one may be tricky. By the way, yes, AccuWx has the Cobb charts too. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 14:26:15 GMT -6
Hi-res really showing some strong banding in there. It goes even further north. We need that shift to stop asap to avoid dry slot.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 14:27:37 GMT -6
Not a fan of Hi-res NAM. Lifts too far north.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 14:28:16 GMT -6
Hires nam still looking great up to hr 34. has onset around 7/8 PM for the southern counties.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 14:29:16 GMT -6
Not a fan of Hi-res NAM. Lifts too far north. Yea, that's my concern that I just posted. The initial hit would still be a good 6 hours of snow but we want it to stay tight and not fly open like that. Just so long as the lighter and moderate snow holds its form everyone will be happy. |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 14:30:16 GMT -6
It almost feels like mother nature needs to pull the rug out from under us on this one. I mean that's happened so much over the last 3-4 years that we probably all suffer from a cognitive bias of dismissing winter storms out of hand out of fear of getting burned again. Can you blame us though?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 13, 2018 14:30:27 GMT -6
when I copy the link from IMGUR, It does not automatically come up as a picture. Is there way to change that? After you've added the image click on it in imgur and then right click and copy the address. Use that address for the forum. It won't work right if you copy the address using one of their easy buttons. Okay, that's the problem I've had - I've always been trying to use their quick button. Thanks for that tip |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 13, 2018 14:30:32 GMT -6
Hi res man destroys st.charles county
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 14:31:21 GMT -6
Winter Storm Watch up guys.
Only includes Jeffco, Monroe, and St. Clair counties in the metro area.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 13, 2018 14:32:15 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 13, 2018 14:33:23 GMT -6
I would think it will include metro by morning based on trends
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Post by perryville on Nov 13, 2018 14:34:30 GMT -6
when I copy the link from IMGUR, It does not automatically come up as a picture. Is there way to change that? After you've added the image click on it in imgur and then right click and copy the address. Use that address for the forum. It won't work right if you copy the address using one of their easy buttons. Is there a way to do it from your phone or do you have to use the computer and right click? I used the computer and worked fine. Thank you for the info! |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 14:36:06 GMT -6
It almost feels like mother nature needs to pull the rug out from under us on this one. I mean that's happened so much over the last 3-4 years that we probably all suffer from a cognitive bias of dismissing winter storms out of hand out of fear of getting burned again. Can you blame us though? i think it borders on PTSD for some ppl. lol |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 13, 2018 14:37:02 GMT -6
Uncle Sam, is the blue the winter storm watch?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 14:38:09 GMT -6
Hi res man destroys st.charles county hi res man sounds like a 3D printed robot out to destroy us all. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 14:39:41 GMT -6
HRRR through 36 looks great.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 13, 2018 14:39:59 GMT -6
Uncle Sam, is the blue the winter storm watch? Yes. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 14:41:21 GMT -6
i would anticipate pah putting their watch out from perry county to the bootheel. for stl, wwa may be the best option to be issued tomorrow. now we ended a streak in our forecast area for winter storm watches. maybe we will end the warning streak too.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 13, 2018 14:41:38 GMT -6
Hi res man destroys st.charles county hi res man sounds like a 3D printed robot out to destroy us all. <Arnie voice> I'll be back <Voice off> |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 13, 2018 14:41:59 GMT -6
Never mind I looked up the NWS-St Louis, and it said 4-6 inches possible but not yet probable!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 14:42:37 GMT -6
Good afternoon Disco from LSX WFO about the upcoming system hinting at over 6" amounts possible but going with 3 to 6 for now with locally higher amounts. Also still looking good for 'hamsters'.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 14:45:21 GMT -6
you look at frivs pic...that snowfall gradient is sharp as all-get-out in stc...from near 6 inches along the river to trace in the nw corner.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 14:48:03 GMT -6
and of course that snow hole over union.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 14:57:03 GMT -6
18Z ICON rolling in now...
RGEM as well.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 15:00:34 GMT -6
RGEM kicks things off earlier this run, like 6-8PM time.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 15:03:10 GMT -6
18Z ICON is a metro buster (excellent run).
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