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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 12:53:40 GMT -6
Even though the euro looks far-fetched what is a trait of a cut-off low? They tend to sit still for a while. If it parks in the right place.......
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 13, 2018 12:59:38 GMT -6
The Euro was probably the best model with this last system wasn't it? At least once we got within 72 hours. Before it was showing a big def. zone but if I recall correctly it damn near nailed the more substantial snow totals being along and NORTH of 44 when all others were showing south. The excitement is building for me big time. Crazy how good the model agreement is. Is there anything that could make this thing slide east at this point? The euro had the storm on the 8th nearly down to a "T" 6 days prior. Not only that, it's been consistent, with little to no flip flop. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 13:03:50 GMT -6
I suspect watches might be issued for those along and south of 44 in the afternoon update
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 13, 2018 13:05:36 GMT -6
BRTNWXMANeuro sfc projection for Thursday PM certainly has a March 4th look to it... a single, heavy band dumping snow
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 13, 2018 13:05:48 GMT -6
Daily records for the month of November
Thank you sir. 3.4 inches Nov 5, 1951 6.9 inches Nov 6, 1951 6.2 inches Nov 17, 1926 5.2 inches Nov 19, 1972 Those are our goals. 1951 must have been a heckuva start to winter. Although that early probably a lot of it melted pretty quick We only have to beat 2.0” Wednesday and .7” on Thursday. Let’s break one or both!  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 13:07:41 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN euro sfc projection for Thursday PM certainly has a March 4th look to it... a single, heavy band dumping snow I think an extremely heavy band will at some point play a part, and those under it will get jackpotted big time. I just hope everyone gets in on some good accumulations before that takes place. As of now it looks like we will. Is there any chance of thunder with this? Maybe when it first "explodes"? |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 13, 2018 13:10:28 GMT -6
Is the temp going to be an issue as we get in to Thursday day? I know there was concern about that at various times.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 13:11:34 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN euro sfc projection for Thursday PM certainly has a March 4th look to it... a single, heavy band dumping snow I think an extremely heavy band will at some point play a part, and those under it will get jackpotted big time. I just hope everyone gets in on some good accumulations before that takes place. As of now it looks like we will. Is there any chance of thunder with this? Maybe when it first "explodes"? I haven’t looked at the soundings in a few model cycles, but I did notice some steep lapse rates through the DGz so possibly |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 13:16:12 GMT -6
Is the temp going to be an issue as we get in to Thursday day? I know there was concern about that at various times. As heavy as the snow may be and that we will be under the cold core I don't expect to get above 34/35. As precip intensity wanes it'll warm a bit late afternoon but at that point there will hopefully be enough snow on the ground that it won't be an issue. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 13, 2018 13:19:29 GMT -6
Cannot fully discount the trends, however, I will not get excited until the snow is falling and the forecast is more solid. I look at this like eating a warhead candy... you know its going to be delicious and sour at the same time. Watching this one patiently this time... Have a great day folks!
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 13, 2018 13:22:39 GMT -6
It's been so long that we can stare at multiple models saying virtually the same thing and we STILL don't believe that it's real LOL.
Been burned too many times it seems
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Post by snowjunky on Nov 13, 2018 13:30:36 GMT -6
I for one hope FRIV gets to use the Friv-O-Meter for the first time in 3 years. Isn't it great to be talking snow maps again. It has been way too long since several people got to make their snow map totals and we all compare for fun.
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Post by REB on Nov 13, 2018 13:53:08 GMT -6
Cannot fully discount the trends, however, I will not get excited until the snow is falling and the forecast is more solid. I look at this like eating a warhead candy... you know its going to be delicious and sour at the same time. Watching this one patiently this time... Have a great day folks! Changed my Thursday STL appointment. Fingers crossed for all my teacher friends. There’s nothing like a snow day ! also wish we had the chat room back up. |
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Post by perryville on Nov 13, 2018 13:59:29 GMT -6
I used photo bucket to upload pics in the past. What’s another app that I can upload directly from my iPhone to the blog?
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Post by yypc on Nov 13, 2018 14:01:23 GMT -6
I used photo bucket to upload pics in the past. What’s another app that I can upload directly from my iPhone to the blog?
Imgur is what you need. Do not use photobucket.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 14:01:51 GMT -6
Here is Cobb method output from the GFS. The cummulative SR is 9:1 on this event at the airport for a total of 1.8".
StnID: kstl Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO
Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
181115/0900Z 45 01008KT 29.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
181115/1000Z 46 36005KT 28.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
181115/1100Z 47 35008KT 27.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
181115/1200Z 48 35009KT 27.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
181115/1300Z 49 34009KT 26.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0
181115/1400Z 50 34009KT 27.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 9:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0
181115/1500Z 51 34008KT 28.1F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
181115/1600Z 52 34006KT 29.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 0| 0| 0
This isn't your typical mid latitude cyclone either. Thermal profiles aren't going to evolve like what we're used to. In fact the system may have WAA on the northwest and CAA on the southeast at times.
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Post by foxrox on Nov 13, 2018 14:03:10 GMT -6
Hi
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Post by perryville on Nov 13, 2018 14:05:49 GMT -6
I used photo bucket to upload pics in the past. What’s another app that I can upload directly from my iPhone to the blog?
Imgur is what you need. Do not use photobucket.
when I copy the link from IMGUR, It does not automatically come up as a picture. Is there way to change that? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 14:11:35 GMT -6
Nam rolling. Snow side of precip shield is noticeably smaller but a bit stronger. Living and dying on every model run and I don't care.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 14:13:16 GMT -6
GEFS still has the best odds and highest totals in southeast MO and southern IL. Remember, this is an ensemble so depicted totals have a smoothed nature to them due to the way the members are averaged together.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 14:15:50 GMT -6
when I copy the link from IMGUR, It does not automatically come up as a picture. Is there way to change that? After you've added the image click on it in imgur and then right click and copy the address. Use that address for the forum. It won't work right if you copy the address using one of their easy buttons. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 14:16:44 GMT -6
Nam rolling. Snow side of precip shield is noticeably smaller but a bit stronger. Living and dying on every model run and I don't care. Thats going to be a good run for the area |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 13, 2018 14:19:01 GMT -6
Oh ya entire metro from wentzville east gets clobbered
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 13, 2018 14:19:40 GMT -6
NAM looks solid up the 44 corridor for snow. Consistency is still there which is a good sign.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 14:19:57 GMT -6
This is going to be real good...
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 13, 2018 14:23:14 GMT -6
As of the Current Model runs where does St. Louis Stand for Wens Night/Thursday.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 14:23:49 GMT -6
Here is Cobb method output from the GFS. The cummulative SR is 9:1 on this event at the airport for a total of 1.8". This isn't your typical mid latitude cyclone either. Thermal profiles aren't going to evolve like what we're used to. In fact the system may have WAA on the northwest and CAA on the southeast at times. Interesting the Cobb method is so low. The Kuchera ratios are around 11-12:1 |
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Post by RyanD on Nov 13, 2018 14:24:00 GMT -6
You sure that first one isn't 1991? We had around 3" on Nov 5th 1991 with temps in the 20's. 1.6 inches on Nov 7, 1991 perhaps?
That may be it. I thought it was the 5th. We had more than that in Red Bud. |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 14:24:02 GMT -6
I'm still up here in Iowa. I've been working a lot so I haven't had a lot of time to keep with this particular storm. But I'm finishing up and will drive back tomorrow just in time for the snow.
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141 
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Nov 13, 2018 14:24:09 GMT -6
Being a ham radio geek and storm spotter, I just got a text from the NWS regarding a conference call for 11am tomorrow morning to discuss "the winter storm"...
I think Todd (Farmington) gets on those calls pretty regular. I will be on in the morning as well to see what we can glean!
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