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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 16:55:28 GMT -6
So far my forecast is the same I've heard for 3 years. 1to 3 lol. Fish' comment was interesting. Maybe we can boost those numbers.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 13, 2018 16:58:26 GMT -6
Looking forward to sitting in the woods for the Illinois gun season on Friday with snow
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Post by pbc12871 on Nov 13, 2018 17:00:57 GMT -6
Omg this is killing me! Cannot believe I am going to miss this. Please don't let this be the first and only good snow we have this winter!
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Post by foxrox on Nov 13, 2018 17:07:29 GMT -6
It almost feels like mother nature needs to pull the rug out from under us on this one. I mean that's happened so much over the last 3-4 years that we probably all suffer from a cognitive bias of dismissing winter storms out of hand out of fear of getting burned again. Can you blame us though? Well she kinda is for metro...everthing is way south. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 13, 2018 17:13:50 GMT -6
I feel like we all need to stand up when Fish comes into the forum...
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 13, 2018 17:21:34 GMT -6
The track of the low is key! I wonder if JeffCo will end up with 1-3!
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 13, 2018 17:32:29 GMT -6
Why do I have this feeling that they are putting too much stock in the GFS? Almost every other model pushes the precip further NW into the metro area. The NAM was so good with the last storm, why change course? To me, the GFS is the outlier in this scenario
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 17:38:04 GMT -6
Why do I have this feeling that they are putting too much stock in the GFS? Almost every other model pushes the precip further NW into the metro area. The NAM was so good with the last storm, why change course? To me, the GFS is the outlier in this scenario I think the NAM/Euro camp has the best handle on this right now. Fish even hinted at a possible northern adjustment to their numbers more in line with the NAM |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 13, 2018 17:41:55 GMT -6
I would have had this out sooner... but had many, many distractions (robo-calls, dog, calls from work, etc., etc.,) But here you go. After pouring over a ton of data (and not nearly all of what I wanted) I have settled on an alignment of my snowfall bands that is a little northwest of the consensus...although it does match pretty closely to the Euro 500/850 mb tracks...but not as extreme as the the NAM/NAM3km (which are concerning). My biggest "twist" lies north of a line from Festus...to Mount Vernon...where I have pivoted the heavy snow band a bit further to the northwest in anticipation of a "whiplash" of the dry slot. In reality... I think there may be two bands of concentrated snow. The first will fly north into southern Missouri/Illinois...and then begin to pivot and weaken...replaced by a new band that will form further north...within the TROWAL...and coincident with and just east of the 850mb thermal trough. Significal WAA aloft associated with the TROWAL will take place within this south/southwest to north/northeast band. All models have some flavor of this alignment...that pivots with the TROWAL near the Mississippi River and tracks east. I don't want to back myself into a corner with an upper limit yet. Looking at mixing ratios on the isentropic charts shows an average of about 3...and using the old rule of doubling the MR yields a max snow of 6"...but that seems a little low based on the convective potential and the efficient snow profile (see NWS LSX discussion). I suspect we are heading for a 4" to 8"...but will leave just 4" or more for now. The gradient to the northwest is probably not nearly tight enough (it never is...) but needless to say the drop from 4" to nothing will be precipitous. I am off to bed and can't really answer any questions...  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 13, 2018 17:55:10 GMT -6
Thanks Chris.
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Post by jason0101 on Nov 13, 2018 17:59:36 GMT -6
Apparently I need more like a 40 mile shift...thought I was closer. Sad to see a WSW go to the south again.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 13, 2018 18:04:17 GMT -6
Just caught a little mistake... "4+ or more" should just be "4 or more" I am not expecting more than more than 4 inches... that would be WAAAAAAAY too much  |
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Post by TK on Nov 13, 2018 18:04:28 GMT -6
Apparently I need more like a 40 mile shift...thought I was closer. Sad to see a WSW go to the south again. Don't give up - trend is your friend...St Chuck is in it |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 13, 2018 18:07:56 GMT -6
Apparently I need more like a 40 mile shift...thought I was closer. Sad to see a WSW go to the south again. Don't give up - trend is your friend...St Chuck is in it Totally agree. The Northwest adjustment still looks to be in play. Even if St Charles isn't in the bullseye, I could see a solid 3-4 inches out of this which would be a quality snow. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 18:12:35 GMT -6
I would be happy with 4 here. I would be annoyed with 1 or none. .lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 13, 2018 18:12:58 GMT -6
I do not like that map Chris for us in Troy, MO. Lol
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Post by jason0101 on Nov 13, 2018 18:17:18 GMT -6
Apparently I need more like a 40 mile shift...thought I was closer. Sad to see a WSW go to the south again. Don't give up - trend is your friend...St Chuck is in it I'm in Troy now...so I need the magnet to move another 20 miles north of St. Chuck |
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Post by stlfisherman on Nov 13, 2018 18:19:11 GMT -6
Just pouring over some of the 18Z data and the forecast still looks good, with the potential of a nudge to the NW if the majority of the guidance starts heading that way. I agree the NAM did a great job with the few mesoscale bands we dealt with the last week, but it was awful on the synoptic system and had the QPF way too far south. We follow these trends closely and to be honest we haven't seen a definitive trend toward one piece of guidance being superior to another this winter so far. Lets see what the 00Z runs have in store for us.
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Post by TK on Nov 13, 2018 18:20:36 GMT -6
Don't give up - trend is your friend...St Chuck is in it I'm in Troy now...so I need the magnet to move another 20 miles north of St. Chuck Ouch.... |
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Post by TK on Nov 13, 2018 18:22:50 GMT -6
Just pouring over some of the 18Z data and the forecast still looks good, with the potential of a nudge to the NW if the majority of the guidance starts heading that way. I agree the NAM did a great job with the few mesoscale bands we dealt with the last week, but it was awful on the synoptic system and had the QPF way too far south. We follow these trends closely and to be honest we haven't seen a definitive trend toward one piece of guidance being superior to another this winter so far. Lets see what the 00Z runs have in store for us. Yes -go FISH go - You at least give St Charles County a chance.... #TRENDING |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 13, 2018 18:23:04 GMT -6
The faster the models trend the further northwest the band will get.
The low moving through Canada seems to unblock the flow and push everything east.
If it trends 6 hours quicker, then this thing will get everyone.
I see a narrow band of 6-10 wherever the pivot occurs. 3-6 in a wider band. Then almost immediately down to nothing. Lighter precip on the edge of the band will be rain or a mix.
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Post by TK on Nov 13, 2018 18:33:52 GMT -6
I am hoping the cyclonic moisture is under estimated
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 18:54:01 GMT -6
I think the most likely North to South "max" band will be along the Mississippi River.
Probably bleeding more into SWIL.
I also don't think there will be this big ! BACKSIDE ! dry hole.
Yeah it's possible. But the comparisons to March 2008 only go so far.
The models have shown this to a degree but also have shown even further a large area of significant snowfall.
Before this so called "TROWEL" sets up.
There is TREMENDOUS ATMOSPHERIC ASCENT to the NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT HEADS TOWARDS US.
I BELIEVE MOST OF THE MODELS SO FAR HAVE NOT CAPTURED THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF THIS.
AND THIS IS GOING TO BE A SOLID SLOW MOVING DEFORMATION ZONE ITSELF.
I THINK THIS LOCKS IN 3-5" FOR 2/3RDS OF THE METRO.
SO THAT'S THAT.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 18:58:15 GMT -6
We have multiple Fish post and Friv going full caps on us
This is officially a legit winter storm
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Nov 13, 2018 19:01:11 GMT -6
Have no fear, my friends, in St. Charles County and those to the north in LinCo.....I’m on duty and this will turn into a cluster of a mess for everyone!!!! 🤣😂🤣
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 13, 2018 19:01:33 GMT -6
Frivometer please!!!
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Post by landscaper on Nov 13, 2018 19:02:25 GMT -6
Did anyone see the 18z EURO today?
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 19:07:23 GMT -6
Yeah apparently it's a real thing. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 19:12:34 GMT -6
Did anyone see the 18z EURO today? Didn't know that was a real thing. I don't know where to access the rap and HRRR past 21 hours. But comparisons to the nam the rap is a little bit further SE than the nam tomorrow afternoon. |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 19:14:21 GMT -6
I honestly can't remember when the last time it was that I used BUFKIT. It's not even on my computer anymore.
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